从索罗斯抄底爆仓股谈起：宏观交易到底怎么玩儿

泷韬全球宏观2021-05-18

索罗斯的基金在一季度抄底Bill Hwang爆仓的股票。说实话，我觉得这个消息没什么意义——因为自从2000年 Druckenmiller离开量子基金后，索罗斯就把公司交给儿子打理，CIO都靠外包模式，自己根本没有接班人。风格早就不知道飘到哪里了。08年曾经和他们当时的CIO交流过，我完全感觉不到他们的宏观体系，更像巴菲特的价值投资。除了索罗斯在08年紧急出马做空次债危机，以及在2013年做空...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

馒头卡喉咙啦
2021-05-19
馒头卡喉咙啦
燒
hhyw
2021-05-19
hhyw
越有錢就越玩的起???
53570b80
2021-05-19
53570b80
沒意義[微笑]
Youn7276
2021-05-19
Youn7276
炒麪高手！
Kenwong
2021-05-19
Kenwong
?
心跳_8338
2021-05-18
心跳_8338
想了想這纔是能牽動市場，我們都是韭菜
- hhyw:
  我们都是

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185252306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cd73d67e9dbedd2f8615091c473358","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-05-18 15:21","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1185252306","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"从索罗斯抄底爆仓股谈起：宏观交易到底怎么玩儿","media":"泷韬全球宏观","content":"<div>\n<p>索罗斯的基金在一季度抄底Bill Hwang爆仓的股票。\n说实话，我觉得这个消息没什么意义——因为自从2000年 Druckenmiller离开量子基金后，索罗斯就把公司交给儿子打理，CIO都靠外包模式，自己根本没有接班人。风格早就不知道飘到哪里了。08年曾经和他们当时的CIO交流过，我完全感觉不到他们的宏观体系，更像巴菲特的价值投资。除了索罗斯在08年紧急出马做空次债危机，以及在2013年做空...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584520488112","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从索罗斯抄底爆仓股谈起：宏观交易到底怎么玩儿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从索罗斯抄底爆仓股谈起：宏观交易到底怎么玩儿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 15:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>索罗斯的基金在一季度抄底Bill Hwang爆仓的股票。\n说实话，我觉得这个消息没什么意义——因为自从2000年 Druckenmiller离开量子基金后，索罗斯就把公司交给儿子打理，CIO都靠外包模式，自己根本没有接班人。风格早就不知道飘到哪里了。08年曾经和他们当时的CIO交流过，我完全感觉不到他们的宏观体系，更像巴菲特的价值投资。除了索罗斯在08年紧急出马做空次债危机，以及在2013年做空...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ","article_id":"1185252306","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cd73d67e9dbedd2f8615091c473358"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185252306","pubTimestamp":1621322486,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1584520488112","name":"泷韬全球宏观"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"投资理念不需要门派之争。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Talking from Soros's Bottom-hunting Stock Explosion: How to Play Macro Trading","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5da2a93833432e55f0ff6d0bcaa61","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"索罗斯的基金在一季度抄底Bill Hwang爆仓的股票。\n说实话，我觉得这个消息没什么意义——因为自从2000年 Druckenmiller离开量子基金后，索罗斯就把公司交给儿子打理，CIO都靠外包模式，自己根本没有接班人。风格早就不知道飘到哪里了。08年曾经和他们当时的CIO交流过，我完全感觉不到他们的宏观体系，更像巴菲特的价值投资。除了索罗斯在08年紧急出马做空次债危机，以及在2013年做空日元，几乎没有可圈可点之处。\n另外，我个人其实 (没有任何根据，纯属猜想) 怀疑他的某些宏观交易不排除是配合美国政府对其他国家进行金融打击。\n\n 做空英镑，打击欧元区；做空亚洲，打击亚洲。\n\n由他几次大的做空，我们看到，获益方都是美国，或其盟友。联想索罗斯和各国，尤其美国政要关系密切，从博弈和风险管理的角度，我们不得不以最坏的打算猜测。\n当然，即使我们猜测是对的，也不妨碍索罗斯作为一代投资大师，和宏观对冲宗师的地位。Buffett很多交易明显也得益于与政府关系密切。这个世界没有理想中那么纯净。\n言归正传，3月起，全球通胀隐患抬头，通胀交易在全球弥漫，科技股，尤其劣质科技股暴跌，导致去年的女股神Wood和Elon Musk，Chamath蛊惑散户追逐的垃圾股暴跌，进而风险延续到Archegos的控盘庄股。\n但是，虽然Bill Hwang咬定科技和抱团不放松，我们看到他师傅Julian Robertson和同门师兄弟比如Tiger Global在去年4季度已减持了科技股（而且去年重仓科技股的Tiger Global在一季度还盈利0.8%，其宏观择时和风险管理功力可见一斑），还有Druckenmiller, 巴菲特也采取了同样的动作。\n但是索罗斯的现任CIO却逆势加仓科技，尤其抄底Bill Hwang的股票......我们单不说对错与否，这路数根本不是宏观选手的招数......\n\n教训：\n\n 1，再优秀的大师，或公司，也要形成可复制的投研系统；\n\n\n 2，依赖天才交易员，很容易风格漂移；\n\n\n 3，任人唯亲......\n\n和索罗斯相比，另一位宏观对冲代表Julian Robertson 桃李满天下，策略不断进化，在2000年之后再也没有受挫，在2008年盈利远超索罗斯 2020年在大部分系统化宏观和量化策略亏损的时候，Tiger cubs盈利在全球领先。\n还有Bill Ackman，从2020年开始，宏观交易如神来之笔：\n\n 在2020年2月，通过交易CDS, 用2700万美金盈利27亿美金，然后3月底反手做多；2020年底，再次用衍生品对冲了今年股市下行风险。单是通过衍生品的宏观交易，就给Pershing Square贡献了1/3的盈利。以价值投资出身的Jualian Robertson成为宏观大家，而且桃李遍天下。\n\n以价值投资出身巴菲特今年年初的调仓完全是宏观手笔：减持科技股，看空美债，超配价值股。\nPE出身的Bill Ackman，宏观交易大放异彩（甚至在去年有盖过Druckenmiller和Tudor的势头）。事实证明，投资理念不需要门派之争。当然，是选择专心于一个门派，还是横跨数个门派，和每个人天赋有关，大家不必邯郸学步。\nDruckenmiller近年来重仓FANG为首的科技龙头，打通宏观和微观任督二脉且宏观观点依旧犀利无比。\n而一代宏观宗师索罗斯自己却门庭凋落了。可惜，可惜。\n事实证明，投资理念不需要门派之争。真正的宏观也许不止视野，还有胸怀。\n学海无涯。共勉。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":194203520,"gmtCreate":1621380931560,"gmtModify":1704356571805,"author":{"id":"3576125208282503","authorId":"3576125208282503","name":"馒头卡喉咙啦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3661a8bd6543d698929e7f6942179db","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576125208282503","idStr":"3576125208282503"},"htmlText":"燒","listText":"燒","text":"燒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194203520","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194640406,"gmtCreate":1621379913005,"gmtModify":1704356540642,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"越有錢就越玩的起???","listText":"越有錢就越玩的起???","text":"越有錢就越玩的起???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194640406","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194611861,"gmtCreate":1621376478253,"gmtModify":1704356474141,"author":{"id":"3577397803511360","authorId":"3577397803511360","name":"53570b80","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577397803511360","idStr":"3577397803511360"},"htmlText":"沒意義[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"沒意義[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"沒意義[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194611861","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194634768,"gmtCreate":1621375743354,"gmtModify":1704356468630,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","idStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"炒麪高手！","listText":"炒麪高手！","text":"炒麪高手！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194634768","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194630303,"gmtCreate":1621374220302,"gmtModify":1704356456395,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194630303","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194184123,"gmtCreate":1621348102562,"gmtModify":1704356225353,"author":{"id":"3547460917714988","authorId":"3547460917714988","name":"心跳_8338","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba9a19922a9c570bfba0090b745a678","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547460917714988","idStr":"3547460917714988"},"htmlText":"想了想這纔是能牽動市場，我們都是韭菜","listText":"想了想這纔是能牽動市場，我們都是韭菜","text":"想了想這纔是能牽動市場，我們都是韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194184123","repostId":1185252306,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4370904,"gmtCreate":1621379863983,"gmtModify":1680789556477,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.35%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194184123,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"我们都是","text":"我们都是","html":"我们都是"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":63,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1185252306"}