Wake Up: The Bear Market Rally Just Started

seekingalpha2022-10-18

SummaryThe S&P 500 dropped by a whopping 20% from its mid-August top two months ago.However, now that stock prices are much lower and the November Fed move is priced in, stocks may have another ...

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Comments

Firmino
2022-10-20
Firmino
u
Jo55
2022-10-19
Jo55
Share price movement, whether up or down, will usually ahead of real economy
LuckyPiggie
2022-10-19
LuckyPiggie
@EV8 ... remember the date , 2 /3 Nov
- EV8:
  Hmm i See
- LuckyPiggie:
  yes at 75bps . question is whether fed will go for 100bps (unlikely) or 75bps in Dec. current forcast in Dec is 50bps.
- EV8:
  “The upcoming Fed rate hike is likely priced in”
  
  Do u agree with the writer?
- EV8:
  Ohh thanks 👍
ming22
2022-10-19
ming22
Opportunity [Miser]
Steve81
2022-10-19
Steve81
Jiayou
- Steve81:
  Good
JSY25
2022-10-19
JSY25
Good reminder!!

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The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) dropped by approximately 20% from its mid-August high to its current bottom at 3,500. I called the August top in the \"Near-TermTop\" article and a series of other bearish articles I published around that time. I'm not saying that the bear market is over or stocks are heading to the moon from here. However, now that the market is significantly lower, we could see another powerful countertrend rally ahead. The upcoming Fed rate hike is likely priced in, and we see earnings coming in better than expected. If the constructive earnings theme continues, we could see stocks rebound substantially in the coming weeks.Finally, A Technical Setup We Can Work WithSPX 1-Year ChartSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX bear market decline has been about 27% from peak to trough. However, the SPX dropped by a whopping 20% since mid August. That's just two months. The SPX and stocks, in general, got severely oversold. We saw the RSI drop below 30, and the CCI dipped below 200, indicating extremely oversold market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, we witnessed a significant panic-driven reversal last Thursday. The market opened significantly lower with capitulation-style selling, but after the relentless selling, the buyers came in, reversing the market by nearly 200 points. We probably witnessed seller exhaustion, and around 3,500 many market participants did not want to sell anymore. Then the algos and the bulls took over, driving stocks to close at session highs. In short, we may have put in another near-term bottom, and we could see the SPX rally to the 3,800-4,000 resistance point from here and possibly higher after that.It's All About the Fed and Earnings Right NowWhile the near-term technical image has improved substantially, it's still all about the Fed and earnings going into November. Despite the higher-than-anticipated CPI reading and the better-than-expected employment report, the Fed will probably still hike interest rates by 75 basis points at the next meeting.Rate ProbabilitiesRate probabilities(CMEGroup.com)There's now about a 95% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark to 3.75-4% (75 basis points) at the next FOMC meeting in roughly 16 days. While 95% is higher than the 50%-70% expectations we had in recent weeks, it was still likely that the Fed would make another 75 basis point move. Therefore, the market has been preparing for the rate hike in recent weeks, has dropped significantly, and the upcoming rate increase should be fully priced in by now. Moreover, once the Fed raises by 75 basis points at the next meeting, it will probably only move by 25-50 basis points at the December FOMC event, suggesting that we may get a significant relief rally after the Fed's decision on Nov. 2.Positive Earnings Are a Catalyst for Higher Stock PricesIt's primarily about making or beating your earnings estimates at the end of the day. Forward guidance is an essential element, but I have not heard too much negative news from the recent bellwether names kicking off earnings season. On the contrary, we see banks and other significant corporations reporting better numbers than the street expected, and that's bullish for stocks.Here's What We've Seen So FarEarnings(Investing.com)While it's not much, we see much better than expected results from big companies. I want to draw your attention to the big banks as they typically set the tone for the entire earnings season. Look at JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and other smash earnings. This phenomenon implies that despite massive drops in stocks, the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient, and we should see more upside for stocks in the weeks ahead. Moreover, it's not just the banks. Other companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings figures, and this trend should transition in the weeks ahead. Robust earnings from big tech companies and other bellwether names should fuel the recent rally further, leading to higher stock prices in the near term.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9983553271,"gmtCreate":1666281434093,"gmtModify":1676537735176,"author":{"id":"3585055653545938","authorId":"3585055653545938","name":"Firmino","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585055653545938","authorIdStr":"3585055653545938"},"htmlText":"u","listText":"u","text":"u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983553271","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9983349419,"gmtCreate":1666160857231,"gmtModify":1676537716078,"author":{"id":"3569412545905673","authorId":"3569412545905673","name":"Jo55","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569412545905673","authorIdStr":"3569412545905673"},"htmlText":"Share price movement, whether up or down, will usually ahead of real economy","listText":"Share price movement, whether up or down, will usually ahead of real economy","text":"Share price movement, whether up or down, will usually ahead of real economy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983349419","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9983318226,"gmtCreate":1666149628965,"gmtModify":1676537714366,"author":{"id":"4107063207857540","authorId":"4107063207857540","name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4107063207857540","authorIdStr":"4107063207857540"},"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3576472032670521\">@EV8</a> ... remember the date , 2 /3&nbsp; Nov","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3576472032670521\">@EV8</a> ... remember the date , 2 /3&nbsp; Nov","text":"@EV8 ... remember the date , 2 /3 Nov","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983318226","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104413723,"gmtCreate":1666168729261,"gmtModify":1666168732707,"authorId":3576472032670521,"author":{"id":3576472032670521,"idStr":"3576472032670521","authorId":3576472032670521,"name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983318226,"type":1,"supId":104410954,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Hmm i See<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Hmm i See<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Hmm i See<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>"},{"id":104412527,"gmtCreate":1666159954408,"gmtModify":1666160301200,"authorId":4107063207857540,"author":{"id":4107063207857540,"idStr":"4107063207857540","authorId":4107063207857540,"name":"LuckyPiggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33330ac1fe6d6c956e10045c870d6f46","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.04","exceedPercentage":"80.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983318226,"type":1,"supId":104410954,"prevId":0,"content":"yes at 75bps . question is whether fed will go for 100bps (unlikely) or 75bps in Dec. current forcast in Dec is 50bps.","text":"yes at 75bps . question is whether fed will go for 100bps (unlikely) or 75bps in Dec. current forcast in Dec is 50bps.","html":"yes at 75bps . question is whether fed will go for 100bps (unlikely) or 75bps in Dec. current forcast in Dec is 50bps."},{"id":104410954,"gmtCreate":1666151558143,"gmtModify":1666157874813,"authorId":3576472032670521,"author":{"id":3576472032670521,"idStr":"3576472032670521","authorId":3576472032670521,"name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983318226,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">“The upcoming Fed rate hike is likely priced in”</span>\n<br><span class=\"s1\"></span><br>\n<br><span class=\"s1\">Do u agree with the writer?</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">“The upcoming Fed rate hike is likely priced in”</span>\n<br><span class=\"s1\"></span><br>\n<br><span class=\"s1\">Do u agree with the writer?</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">“The upcoming Fed rate hike is likely priced in”</span>\n<br><span class=\"s1\"></span><br>\n<br><span class=\"s1\">Do u agree with the writer?</span>"},{"id":104410846,"gmtCreate":1666150938615,"gmtModify":1666150942986,"authorId":3576472032670521,"author":{"id":3576472032670521,"idStr":"3576472032670521","authorId":3576472032670521,"name":"EV8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49db5086746d5ad4581b298b77a14995","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983318226,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Ohh thanks 👍</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Ohh thanks 👍</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Ohh thanks 👍</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9983313400,"gmtCreate":1666149437200,"gmtModify":1676537714307,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571044771112848","authorIdStr":"3571044771112848"},"htmlText":"Opportunity&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Opportunity&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Opportunity [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983313400","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9983975922,"gmtCreate":1666143817166,"gmtModify":1676537712714,"author":{"id":"3583228594556766","authorId":"3583228594556766","name":"Steve81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8451fbd9311bbb12faabfa8f6138ef34","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583228594556766","authorIdStr":"3583228594556766"},"htmlText":"Jiayou&nbsp;","listText":"Jiayou&nbsp;","text":"Jiayou","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983975922","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104408764,"gmtCreate":1666143825145,"gmtModify":1666143828568,"authorId":3583228594556766,"author":{"id":3583228594556766,"idStr":"3583228594556766","authorId":3583228594556766,"name":"Steve81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8451fbd9311bbb12faabfa8f6138ef34","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983975922,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9983970270,"gmtCreate":1666142951890,"gmtModify":1676537712429,"author":{"id":"4099632774864490","authorId":"4099632774864490","name":"JSY25","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/398a3116838b1007fdd0326dae5c7a9d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099632774864490","authorIdStr":"4099632774864490"},"htmlText":"Good reminder!!","listText":"Good reminder!!","text":"Good reminder!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983970270","repostId":1193778940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":504,"commentSize":94,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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