高盛对2022年美国经济的十大预测，对了七个半

华尔街见闻2022-12-26

又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

liuxiangwei
2022-12-26
liuxiangwei
[微笑]
- liuxiangwei:
  [微笑]
Mingzu
2022-12-26
Mingzu
[微笑]
- Mingzu:
  [微笑]
Linda2240
2022-12-26
Linda2240
[微笑]
- Linda2240:
  [微笑]
hangyuliang
2022-12-26
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]
yuliang559
2022-12-26
yuliang559
[微笑]
- HCBICE:
  [财迷]
- yuliang559:
  [微笑]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197453989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-12-26 21:21","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1197453989","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"高盛对2022年美国经济的十大预测，对了七个半","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛对2022年美国经济的十大预测，对了七个半</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛对2022年美国经济的十大预测，对了七个半\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 21:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GS","symbol_name":"高盛","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353","article_id":"1197453989","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca"],"rights":{"source":"live_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197453989","pubTimestamp":1672060910,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs' top ten predictions for the US economy in 2022 are seven and a half right","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3ff8da8d99d1c88a25d3177421769b","symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资增长率保持在5%左右，核心通胀率进一步上升；供应链复苏因意外冲击而推迟，导致通胀意外走高。尽管通胀意外上升，但高盛认为，2022年是财政和货币紧缩政策成功踩下刹车，供需重新走向平衡的一年。高盛预计，美联储将在2023年再度加息，使利率达到5-5.25%的峰值，将调整进程保持在正轨。1、美国国会是否会在2022年提高支出？年初的回答：会，但对2022年的影响可能不大。评论：正确。当时高盛预计，国会不会通过“重建更美好”法案全部措施，特别是不会延长儿童税收抵免，但会适度增加制造业和供应链激励措施的支出。事实证明，这是正确的，国会最终通过了以清洁能源、气候激励以及健康保险补贴为重点的《通胀削减法案》，还有以激励半导体制造业为重点的《CHIPS和科学法案》。2、美国GDP增长会达到共识预期吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：正确。市场一致预期2021年第四季度的GDP增长为3.4%，高盛的预测下调了1个百分点。高盛认为，随着疫情救济计划到期，财政刺激将大幅下降。高盛的最新跟踪估计表明，2022年第四季度GDP增长仅为0.6%。3、储蓄率会继续下降吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。当时高盛认为储蓄率会下降，家庭逐渐恢复对疫情敏感的服务支出，并利用多余的储蓄来抵消疫情救助计划到期带来的收入损失，以及在创纪录的高收入和低失业风险中，储蓄需求有限。以上因素促使10月份的储蓄率下降了5%以上，至2.3%，超过了高盛预期，仅略高于历史最低水平。4、失业率是否会降到2019年的平均水平3.7%以下？年初的回答：会。评论：几乎不正确。9月份的失业率低至3.5%，虽然此后回升至3.7%，但仅略低于2019年的平均水平。就业—劳动力缺口是衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的指标，也是导致职位空缺水平巨高不下的一个因素，虽然已从峰值大幅下降，但仍表明劳动力市场比2019年更为紧张。5、工资会保持最近5-6%的增长速度吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：不正确。高盛的工资追踪系统显示增长了5.4%，而不是其之前预期的4%。在紧急失业救济金到期后，工资增长在薪级表上急剧减速，但在其他地方却有所回升。高盛认为，导致这一变化主要有以下三点原因。首先，2021年底工资增长并没有像之前显示那样呈下降趋势，1月初公布的平均小时收入的大幅度修正表明了这一点。第二，2022年劳动力需求激增，就业市场全年都非常紧张。第三，包括俄乌冲突在内的进一步通胀冲击将整体CPI通胀推至9%的峰值时，许多工人的生活成本更高。6、核心PCE通胀率会降到3%以下吗？年初的回答：会。评论：不正确。当时高盛预计核心PCE通胀将大幅下降，核心服务通胀大致保持稳定，核心商品通胀大幅下降，其认为供应端复苏提振生产，会扭转短缺导致的价格飙升。相反，核心服务业通胀大幅上升，尤其是住房通胀。核心商品通胀有所下降，但降幅并没有高盛预期的那么高，高盛的预测在5%左右，这在一定程度上是因为今年早些时候对全球供应的冲击进一步推迟了供应链复苏，近几个月才开始显示通缩迹象。7、近期通胀预期会下降吗？高盛的回答：会。评论：正确。今年，短期消费者通胀预期首先上升，然后随着汽油价格和更广泛的通胀压力下降，从峰值大幅下降，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。相比之下，长期通胀预期从疫情前的低迷水平温和上升，此后一直保持在目标区间内的水平。8、美联储是否会将基金利率的目标范围提高至少75bp？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。今年伊始，高盛对美联储的预测偏鹰派，主要是因为高盛预计核心通胀在2022年全年将维持在令人不安的高位。最终，美联储将联邦基金利率累计提高了425个基点，远超预期。9、美联储是否会宣布开启缩减资产负债表？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。美联储在6月正式启动缩表，6至8月每月缩表上限为475亿美元，而这一速度将在9月开始翻倍，上限提高至950亿美元，其中包括600亿的美国国债和350亿的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），约占资产负债规模的1%。高盛预计缩表将持续到2024年底或2025年初，FOMC将在最后阶段放慢缩表的步伐，以避免超调。10、市场会增加政策资金利率的定价吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。高盛预测最终利率为2.5-2.75%，现在的市场定价意味着2023年5月将达到4.85%的峰值，比高盛预测的区间5-5.25%低大约25个基点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9925537449,"gmtCreate":1672062933782,"gmtModify":1676538628582,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582688457818684","authorIdStr":"3582688457818684"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925537449","repostId":1197453989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105345932,"gmtCreate":1672062940863,"gmtModify":1672062954400,"authorId":3582688457818684,"author":{"id":3582688457818684,"idStr":"3582688457818684","authorId":3582688457818684,"name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925537449,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925537979,"gmtCreate":1672062813992,"gmtModify":1676538628560,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925537979","repostId":1197453989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105345922,"gmtCreate":1672062820345,"gmtModify":1672062833046,"authorId":3582685386479633,"author":{"id":3582685386479633,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorId":3582685386479633,"name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925537979,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925534669,"gmtCreate":1672062661651,"gmtModify":1676538628534,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925534669","repostId":1197453989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105345909,"gmtCreate":1672062667109,"gmtModify":1672062680135,"authorId":3581665781703479,"author":{"id":3581665781703479,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorId":3581665781703479,"name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925534669,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925535401,"gmtCreate":1672062445103,"gmtModify":1676538628500,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925535401","repostId":1197453989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105345890,"gmtCreate":1672062451346,"gmtModify":1672062464149,"authorId":3581648325885484,"author":{"id":3581648325885484,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorId":3581648325885484,"name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925535401,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925535386,"gmtCreate":1672062310645,"gmtModify":1676538628483,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925535386","repostId":1197453989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105346060,"gmtCreate":1672064350247,"gmtModify":1672064363155,"authorId":3568697814695599,"author":{"id":3568697814695599,"idStr":"3568697814695599","authorId":3568697814695599,"name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925535386,"type":1,"supId":105345878,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"},{"id":105345878,"gmtCreate":1672062320389,"gmtModify":1672062333331,"authorId":3581663680495191,"author":{"id":3581663680495191,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorId":3581663680495191,"name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925535386,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":16,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1197453989"}