美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”

赵伟宏观探索2021-08-01

报告正文 1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚” 事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。资料来源：BEA 点评：美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

T0000023454
2021-08-01
T0000023454
假新聞
- LawrenceCW:
  哦哦
- Fir38989:
  哈哈
超会嗷呜
2021-08-01
超会嗷呜
Good
- Diaschy86:
  痛的
- 子益:
  可以帮我点赞吗

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2156060165","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”","media":"赵伟宏观探索","content":"<div>\n<p>报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1594946959994","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 07:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml><strong>赵伟宏观探索</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","article_id":"2156060165","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1594946959994","name":"赵伟宏观探索"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"The US economy in the second quarter was \"soft outside and firm inside\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e4ae2bacb730a6dbdfbb178f6e17e3","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":802668629,"gmtCreate":1627777443761,"gmtModify":1703495616146,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"T0000023454","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1fef35c6b6f60123deced20857bcbf6","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544441872957647","authorIdStr":"3544441872957647"},"htmlText":"假新聞","listText":"假新聞","text":"假新聞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802668629","repostId":2156060165,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5390666,"gmtCreate":1627777948532,"gmtModify":1663231768031,"authorId":3568626352541392,"author":{"id":3568626352541392,"idStr":"3568626352541392","authorId":3568626352541392,"name":"LawrenceCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962262e528e64dff78a74edaba2a5aac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":802668629,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"哦哦","text":"哦哦","html":"哦哦"},{"id":5390717,"gmtCreate":1627778255694,"gmtModify":1663231764649,"authorId":3586398396203275,"author":{"id":3586398396203275,"idStr":"3586398396203275","authorId":3586398396203275,"name":"Fir38989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891c3526e8cc2c4b05f10dd140fe1fb7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":802668629,"type":1,"supId":5390666,"prevId":0,"content":"哈哈","text":"哈哈","html":"哈哈"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581586310901443","authorIdStr":"3581586310901443"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":2156060165,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5390662,"gmtCreate":1627777937511,"gmtModify":1663231767943,"authorId":3582212677594923,"author":{"id":3582212677594923,"idStr":"3582212677594923","authorId":3582212677594923,"name":"Diaschy86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023e36d76d8f4434c4ca55ea9d316933","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":802663397,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"痛的","text":"痛的","html":"痛的"},{"id":5390594,"gmtCreate":1627777463604,"gmtModify":1663231766745,"authorId":3581909498306446,"author":{"id":3581909498306446,"idStr":"3581909498306446","authorId":3581909498306446,"name":"子益","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7934ac0a878bb8dff5a4b3e20d357f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":802663397,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"可以帮我点赞吗","text":"可以帮我点赞吗","html":"可以帮我点赞吗"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":23,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2156060165"}