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2021-08-10

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The Federal Reserve's "fig leaf" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was "falsified".

2021-08-07

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SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation

2021-08-01

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The US economy was "soft on the outside but strong on the inside" in the second quarter.

2021-07-21

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He emphasized that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and creating full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change the loose monetary policy and begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\".</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" can no longer cover it up.</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Data for May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% in June to 61.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year-on-year. 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Bostic stated that he expects to begin tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but is open to starting to taper bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren said the Fed may begin withdrawing support measures sooner than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell's view that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real U.S. employment situation</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job openings increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million. The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. 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In other words, the most accurate employment data in the United States may not be available for one to two months.</p><p>If the employment data remains strong by then, the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction in asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was \"falsified\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was \"falsified\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Previously, following the explosive inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve had consistently claimed that inflation was \"temporary,\" that U.S. inflation would decline in the future, and that the Fed was not yet in a rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the July interest rate meeting that millions of people in the United States remain unemployed. He emphasized that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and creating full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change the loose monetary policy and begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\".</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" can no longer cover it up.</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Data for May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% in June to 61.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year-on-year. Many economists believe that the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth in nearly 40 years this year.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly encouraged the market, and the Federal Reserve may no longer have any reason to be dovish. The market expects a timetable for tapering bond purchases to be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve officials also made hawkish remarks.</b></p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Fed is rapidly approaching the point where it will begin tapering its bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key criterion for starting a rate hike. Bostic stated that he expects to begin tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but is open to starting to taper bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren said the Fed may begin withdrawing support measures sooner than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell's view that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real U.S. employment situation</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job openings increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million. The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. Hiring rose to 6.7 million in June from 6 million the previous month, marking the second-largest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>The job vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly and companies are increasing hiring, but in reality, a large part of the reason is that many Americans are unwilling to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States hit a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made some people unwilling to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high welfare benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the real unemployment rate in the United States is actually higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the pandemic, unemployment benefits in the United States averaged about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus programs, including an additional $300 per week in unemployment benefits.</p><p>This means that the average weekly net income of unemployed Americans reaches $687, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 per hour, more than twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of looking for a job.</p><p>However, enhanced unemployment benefits will soon expire in early September, and many states have even canceled the $300 per week benefit ahead of schedule, potentially costing approximately 7.5 million Americans unemployment benefits. In other words, the most accurate employment data in the United States may not be available for one to two months.</p><p>If the employment data remains strong by then, the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction in asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128522311","content_text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。\n一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。\n美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了\n上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。\n如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。\n美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论。\n亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。\n波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。\n虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？\n真实的美国就业状况\n周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空缺增加了59万个，达到1,007.3万个，创纪录新高，远超预期的927万个；5月数据从920.9万上修至950万6月招聘人数从上月的600万升至670万，为政府自2000年开始追踪该资料以来的第二大增幅。\n职位的空缺一方面表明美国经济复苏强劲，各个公司都在加大招聘，但实际上很大一部分原因是由于很多美国人不愿意去工作导致的。\n近期，美国新冠病例数与住院人数创下六个月新高，疫情的爆发令一部分人不愿意重返就业岗位。此外，还有很大一部分人是为了领取高额的救济金而放弃工作，由于没有工作意愿，这部分人是不算在失业率里面的，所以实际上美国的真实失业率是要比5.4%高的。\n在疫情暴发之前，美国的失业补助约为平均每周387美元，而在疫情之后，联邦政府推出了一系列的经济刺激计划，其中就包括每周300美元的额外失业福利。\n这意味着美国失业民众平均每周的净收入达到687美元，相当于每小时17.17美元的工资，是联邦最低工资每小时7.25美元的两倍多，无怪乎数百万的美国人愿意“躺平”领救济金而不去找份工作。\n不过很快，增强型失业救济金将于9月初到期，许多州甚至提前取消了每周300美元的补助，大约750万美国人可能会失去失业救济金。也就是说，美国最真实的就业数据可能需要一到两个月后才能揭晓。\n假如到时候的就业数据依旧强劲的话，美联储的“遮羞布”将不复存在，美联储缩减资产购买规模也将板上钉钉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893555292,"gmtCreate":1628291723616,"gmtModify":1703504503096,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893555292","repostId":"1190418068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190418068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628267438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190418068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-07 00:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190418068","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份。","content":"<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing reports that a HK$23.6 billion transaction between SOHO China and Blackstone Group has been formally investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited, on behalf of the Offeror, making a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions to acquire all of the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">澎湃新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 00:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing reports that a HK$23.6 billion transaction between SOHO China and Blackstone Group has been formally investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited, on behalf of the Offeror, making a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions to acquire all of the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">澎湃新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b062bbd85848c3ea66f8fca10f2c9937","relate_stocks":{"BX":"黑石","00410":"SOHO中国"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190418068","content_text":"记者 李晓青\nSOHO中国和黑石集团的一笔236亿港元的交易，获得了市场监管总局正式立案审查。\n8月6日晚间，SOHO中国有限公司及Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited（要约方）联合发布公告，SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年6月16日的公告，内容有关高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司代表要约方作出附先决条件自愿性有条件现金要约以收购SOHO中国全部已发行股份；及SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年7月6日的公告，内容有关延迟寄发综合文件。\nSOHO中国称，自联合公告发出后，要约方已向中国国家市场监管总局提交并购审查申报相关文件及材料。自延迟寄发公告发出后，要约方已提供进一步文件及材料，以回应监管机构关于补充额外信息的要求。\n2021年8月3日，要约方收到中国国家市场监管总局于2021年8月2日签发的通知，对要约方根据《中国反垄断法》提交的申报正式立案审查。尽管该申报已获正式立案，要约方及SOHO中国仍可能被要求提供进一步信息及材料供监管机构审查。截至目前，没有任何先决条件已获达成。\n在此前的6月16日，SOHO中国公告，高盛代表黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份，交易价格约236.57亿港元。每股收购的价格较最后交易日的收盘价3.8港元/股溢价约31.6%。\n交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权，SOHO中国将继续在香港证券交易所上市。\nSOHO中国在公告中表示，黑石集团计划维持SOHO中国现有的主营业务和管理层，并计划在适当的情况下利用公司的资源在中国进行扩张。要约完成后，黑石集团计划对公司进行详细的战略审查，以制定公司未来业务发展的业务计划和战略，并确定为优化和合理化公司的业务活动和资产组合而采取的适当或可取的措施。\nSOHO中国2020年的年报数据显示，公司实现营业收入约21.92亿元，同比增长约19%。其中，租金收入15.37亿元，同比下降16%，出售物业收入6.54亿元。税前利润约16亿元，同比下降约17%；毛利13.9亿元，同比减少7.9%；净利润5.43亿元，同比减少58.8%；净资产负债率约为43%，平均借贷成本约4.7%，总资产约707.04亿元，总负债约331.57亿元。\n截至今日收盘，SOHO中国报3.22港元/股，涨幅1.26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00410":0.9,"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":"2156060165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156060165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","media":"赵伟宏观探索","summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","content":"<p>Main text of the report</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US Economy in the Second Quarter: \"Outwardly Soft but Internally Strong\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released its latest second-quarter GDP data. In the second quarter, the annualized GDP growth rate was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Review:</p><p>Although the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP rate in the United States in the second quarter fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. The latest data shows that the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it fell short of expectations, the 6.5% month-on-month annualized rate has reached a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of major sub-categories of US GDP, private consumption reached an annualized rate of 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, private investment reached an annualized rate of -3.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the previous value of -2.3%, exports reached an annualized rate of 6% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the previous value of -2.9%, and imports reached an annualized rate of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, a decline from the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both consumption of goods and services is showing a positive growth trend. Private consumption contributed as much as 7.8% to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, far exceeding private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of goods consumption has slowed down, the month-on-month annualized rate of 11.6% still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. Service consumption performed particularly well, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The 12% month-on-month annualized rate is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of 3.1% in the same period since 2009 for U.S. service consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, a significant decline in construction investment and inventories was the main reason for the lower-than-expected US GDP in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the annualized contribution of private investment to GDP in the United States was -0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, with both real estate and non-real estate investments declining. Looking further, among non-real estate investments, construction investment showed the worst performance, with its month-on-month annualized rate turning from positive to negative. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, U.S. private inventories declined significantly in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized contribution to GDP of -1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in U.S. construction investment is likely more due to rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. housing market has remained at a high level, with housing prices continuing to rise at an accelerated pace, and a shortage of new homes has appeared in many places and is \"intensifying\". The \"counter-trend\" decline in real estate investment may be more due to the drag of soaring raw material prices. Data shows that the price of timber, a building material, surged by nearly 90% from January to May, with absolute levels frequently hitting new historical highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment that uses the same construction materials. The continued contraction of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in private inventories in the United States is not due to weak demand; on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline caused by a surge in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, inventories in U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers all declined. However, contrary to intuitive perception, the decline in private sector inventories in the United States is a \"result\" of a surge in demand, rather than a reflection of weak demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the significant expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated their growth, with absolute levels exceeding those before the pandemic. However, constrained by relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish inventory, but also continued to passively \"reduce inventory,\" with the inventory-to-sales ratio both falling to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking ahead, with the large-scale rollout of vaccines, the gradual end of the pandemic, and the rapid growth of residents' wage income, private consumption in the United States may continue its sustained improvement trend, providing strong support for the economy. With the large-scale rollout of vaccines, new deaths in the United States remain low, and the economic unlocking process is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of lockdowns has boosted economic vitality, the rapid growth in wages and incomes of American residents has driven total income levels to remain above historical trends. Steady income growth on the household side, coupled with a significant increase in the savings rate driven by previous fiscal stimulus, will jointly drive a continued improvement in private consumption. As the \"ballast\" of the US economy, the improving trend in private consumption means that the overall economy will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in prices of raw materials such as timber, along with a significant increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting robust economic growth. On the one hand, the significant increase in supply since late May has caused timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. As a result, US real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound. Meanwhile, with a significant increase in new manufacturing orders, coupled with the improvement of the pandemic and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the U.S. private sector may begin to enter a \"restocking\" phase. Inventory replenishment and a rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>The US government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>","source":"lsy1594946959994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">赵伟宏观探索</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 07:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Main text of the report</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US Economy in the Second Quarter: \"Outwardly Soft but Internally Strong\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released its latest second-quarter GDP data. In the second quarter, the annualized GDP growth rate was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Review:</p><p>Although the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP rate in the United States in the second quarter fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. The latest data shows that the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it fell short of expectations, the 6.5% month-on-month annualized rate has reached a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of major sub-categories of US GDP, private consumption reached an annualized rate of 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, private investment reached an annualized rate of -3.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the previous value of -2.3%, exports reached an annualized rate of 6% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the previous value of -2.9%, and imports reached an annualized rate of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, a decline from the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both consumption of goods and services is showing a positive growth trend. Private consumption contributed as much as 7.8% to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, far exceeding private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of goods consumption has slowed down, the month-on-month annualized rate of 11.6% still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. Service consumption performed particularly well, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The 12% month-on-month annualized rate is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of 3.1% in the same period since 2009 for U.S. service consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, a significant decline in construction investment and inventories was the main reason for the lower-than-expected US GDP in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the annualized contribution of private investment to GDP in the United States was -0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, with both real estate and non-real estate investments declining. Looking further, among non-real estate investments, construction investment showed the worst performance, with its month-on-month annualized rate turning from positive to negative. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, U.S. private inventories declined significantly in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized contribution to GDP of -1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in U.S. construction investment is likely more due to rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. housing market has remained at a high level, with housing prices continuing to rise at an accelerated pace, and a shortage of new homes has appeared in many places and is \"intensifying\". The \"counter-trend\" decline in real estate investment may be more due to the drag of soaring raw material prices. Data shows that the price of timber, a building material, surged by nearly 90% from January to May, with absolute levels frequently hitting new historical highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment that uses the same construction materials. The continued contraction of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in private inventories in the United States is not due to weak demand; on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline caused by a surge in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, inventories in U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers all declined. However, contrary to intuitive perception, the decline in private sector inventories in the United States is a \"result\" of a surge in demand, rather than a reflection of weak demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the significant expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated their growth, with absolute levels exceeding those before the pandemic. However, constrained by relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish inventory, but also continued to passively \"reduce inventory,\" with the inventory-to-sales ratio both falling to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking ahead, with the large-scale rollout of vaccines, the gradual end of the pandemic, and the rapid growth of residents' wage income, private consumption in the United States may continue its sustained improvement trend, providing strong support for the economy. With the large-scale rollout of vaccines, new deaths in the United States remain low, and the economic unlocking process is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of lockdowns has boosted economic vitality, the rapid growth in wages and incomes of American residents has driven total income levels to remain above historical trends. Steady income growth on the household side, coupled with a significant increase in the savings rate driven by previous fiscal stimulus, will jointly drive a continued improvement in private consumption. As the \"ballast\" of the US economy, the improving trend in private consumption means that the overall economy will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in prices of raw materials such as timber, along with a significant increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting robust economic growth. On the one hand, the significant increase in supply since late May has caused timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. As a result, US real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound. Meanwhile, with a significant increase in new manufacturing orders, coupled with the improvement of the pandemic and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the U.S. private sector may begin to enter a \"restocking\" phase. Inventory replenishment and a rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>The US government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">赵伟宏观探索</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156060165","content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178295697,"gmtCreate":1626822748819,"gmtModify":1703765705943,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178295697","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":178295697,"gmtCreate":1626822748819,"gmtModify":1703765705943,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178295697","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":"2156060165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156060165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","media":"赵伟宏观探索","summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","content":"<p>Main text of the report</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US Economy in the Second Quarter: \"Outwardly Soft but Internally Strong\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released its latest second-quarter GDP data. In the second quarter, the annualized GDP growth rate was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Review:</p><p>Although the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP rate in the United States in the second quarter fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. The latest data shows that the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it fell short of expectations, the 6.5% month-on-month annualized rate has reached a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of major sub-categories of US GDP, private consumption reached an annualized rate of 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, private investment reached an annualized rate of -3.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the previous value of -2.3%, exports reached an annualized rate of 6% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the previous value of -2.9%, and imports reached an annualized rate of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, a decline from the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both consumption of goods and services is showing a positive growth trend. Private consumption contributed as much as 7.8% to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, far exceeding private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of goods consumption has slowed down, the month-on-month annualized rate of 11.6% still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. Service consumption performed particularly well, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The 12% month-on-month annualized rate is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of 3.1% in the same period since 2009 for U.S. service consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, a significant decline in construction investment and inventories was the main reason for the lower-than-expected US GDP in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the annualized contribution of private investment to GDP in the United States was -0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, with both real estate and non-real estate investments declining. Looking further, among non-real estate investments, construction investment showed the worst performance, with its month-on-month annualized rate turning from positive to negative. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, U.S. private inventories declined significantly in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized contribution to GDP of -1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in U.S. construction investment is likely more due to rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. housing market has remained at a high level, with housing prices continuing to rise at an accelerated pace, and a shortage of new homes has appeared in many places and is \"intensifying\". The \"counter-trend\" decline in real estate investment may be more due to the drag of soaring raw material prices. Data shows that the price of timber, a building material, surged by nearly 90% from January to May, with absolute levels frequently hitting new historical highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment that uses the same construction materials. The continued contraction of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in private inventories in the United States is not due to weak demand; on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline caused by a surge in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, inventories in U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers all declined. However, contrary to intuitive perception, the decline in private sector inventories in the United States is a \"result\" of a surge in demand, rather than a reflection of weak demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the significant expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated their growth, with absolute levels exceeding those before the pandemic. However, constrained by relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish inventory, but also continued to passively \"reduce inventory,\" with the inventory-to-sales ratio both falling to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking ahead, with the large-scale rollout of vaccines, the gradual end of the pandemic, and the rapid growth of residents' wage income, private consumption in the United States may continue its sustained improvement trend, providing strong support for the economy. With the large-scale rollout of vaccines, new deaths in the United States remain low, and the economic unlocking process is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of lockdowns has boosted economic vitality, the rapid growth in wages and incomes of American residents has driven total income levels to remain above historical trends. Steady income growth on the household side, coupled with a significant increase in the savings rate driven by previous fiscal stimulus, will jointly drive a continued improvement in private consumption. As the \"ballast\" of the US economy, the improving trend in private consumption means that the overall economy will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in prices of raw materials such as timber, along with a significant increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting robust economic growth. On the one hand, the significant increase in supply since late May has caused timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. As a result, US real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound. Meanwhile, with a significant increase in new manufacturing orders, coupled with the improvement of the pandemic and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the U.S. private sector may begin to enter a \"restocking\" phase. Inventory replenishment and a rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>The US government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>","source":"lsy1594946959994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy was \"soft on the outside but strong on the inside\" in the second quarter.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">赵伟宏观探索</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 07:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Main text of the report</p><p>1. Weekly Special Topic 2: The US Economy in the Second Quarter: \"Outwardly Soft but Internally Strong\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released its latest second-quarter GDP data. In the second quarter, the annualized GDP growth rate was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Review:</p><p>Although the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP rate in the United States in the second quarter fell short of expectations, it reached a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. The latest data shows that the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it fell short of expectations, the 6.5% month-on-month annualized rate has reached a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of major sub-categories of US GDP, private consumption reached an annualized rate of 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, private investment reached an annualized rate of -3.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the previous value of -2.3%, exports reached an annualized rate of 6% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the previous value of -2.9%, and imports reached an annualized rate of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, a decline from the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the US economy, both consumption of goods and services is showing a positive growth trend. Private consumption contributed as much as 7.8% to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, far exceeding private investment and net exports. In private consumption, although the growth rate of goods consumption has slowed down, the month-on-month annualized rate of 11.6% still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. Service consumption performed particularly well, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The 12% month-on-month annualized rate is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of 3.1% in the same period since 2009 for U.S. service consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, a significant decline in construction investment and inventories was the main reason for the lower-than-expected US GDP in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the annualized contribution of private investment to GDP in the United States was -0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. In private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, with both real estate and non-real estate investments declining. Looking further, among non-real estate investments, construction investment showed the worst performance, with its month-on-month annualized rate turning from positive to negative. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, U.S. private inventories declined significantly in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized contribution to GDP of -1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in U.S. construction investment is likely more due to rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. housing market has remained at a high level, with housing prices continuing to rise at an accelerated pace, and a shortage of new homes has appeared in many places and is \"intensifying\". The \"counter-trend\" decline in real estate investment may be more due to the drag of soaring raw material prices. Data shows that the price of timber, a building material, surged by nearly 90% from January to May, with absolute levels frequently hitting new historical highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment that uses the same construction materials. The continued contraction of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in private inventories in the United States is not due to weak demand; on the contrary, it is a \"passive\" decline caused by a surge in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, inventories in U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers all declined. However, contrary to intuitive perception, the decline in private sector inventories in the United States is a \"result\" of a surge in demand, rather than a reflection of weak demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the significant expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales accelerated their growth, with absolute levels exceeding those before the pandemic. However, constrained by relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish inventory, but also continued to passively \"reduce inventory,\" with the inventory-to-sales ratio both falling to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking ahead, with the large-scale rollout of vaccines, the gradual end of the pandemic, and the rapid growth of residents' wage income, private consumption in the United States may continue its sustained improvement trend, providing strong support for the economy. With the large-scale rollout of vaccines, new deaths in the United States remain low, and the economic unlocking process is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of lockdowns has boosted economic vitality, the rapid growth in wages and incomes of American residents has driven total income levels to remain above historical trends. Steady income growth on the household side, coupled with a significant increase in the savings rate driven by previous fiscal stimulus, will jointly drive a continued improvement in private consumption. As the \"ballast\" of the US economy, the improving trend in private consumption means that the overall economy will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in prices of raw materials such as timber, along with a significant increase in new orders, also means that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting robust economic growth. On the one hand, the significant increase in supply since late May has caused timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. As a result, US real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound. Meanwhile, with a significant increase in new manufacturing orders, coupled with the improvement of the pandemic and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the U.S. private sector may begin to enter a \"restocking\" phase. Inventory replenishment and a rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Risk Warning</p><p>The US government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">赵伟宏观探索</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156060165","content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893555292,"gmtCreate":1628291723616,"gmtModify":1703504503096,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893555292","repostId":"1190418068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190418068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628267438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190418068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-07 00:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190418068","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份。","content":"<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing reports that a HK$23.6 billion transaction between SOHO China and Blackstone Group has been formally investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited, on behalf of the Offeror, making a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions to acquire all of the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOHO China: Blackstone's HK$23.6 billion acquisition under review by the State Administration for Market Regulation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">澎湃新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 00:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing reports that a HK$23.6 billion transaction between SOHO China and Blackstone Group has been formally investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Limited and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited, on behalf of the Offeror, making a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions to acquire all of the issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">澎湃新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b062bbd85848c3ea66f8fca10f2c9937","relate_stocks":{"BX":"黑石","00410":"SOHO中国"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190418068","content_text":"记者 李晓青\nSOHO中国和黑石集团的一笔236亿港元的交易，获得了市场监管总局正式立案审查。\n8月6日晚间，SOHO中国有限公司及Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited（要约方）联合发布公告，SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年6月16日的公告，内容有关高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司代表要约方作出附先决条件自愿性有条件现金要约以收购SOHO中国全部已发行股份；及SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年7月6日的公告，内容有关延迟寄发综合文件。\nSOHO中国称，自联合公告发出后，要约方已向中国国家市场监管总局提交并购审查申报相关文件及材料。自延迟寄发公告发出后，要约方已提供进一步文件及材料，以回应监管机构关于补充额外信息的要求。\n2021年8月3日，要约方收到中国国家市场监管总局于2021年8月2日签发的通知，对要约方根据《中国反垄断法》提交的申报正式立案审查。尽管该申报已获正式立案，要约方及SOHO中国仍可能被要求提供进一步信息及材料供监管机构审查。截至目前，没有任何先决条件已获达成。\n在此前的6月16日，SOHO中国公告，高盛代表黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份，交易价格约236.57亿港元。每股收购的价格较最后交易日的收盘价3.8港元/股溢价约31.6%。\n交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权，SOHO中国将继续在香港证券交易所上市。\nSOHO中国在公告中表示，黑石集团计划维持SOHO中国现有的主营业务和管理层，并计划在适当的情况下利用公司的资源在中国进行扩张。要约完成后，黑石集团计划对公司进行详细的战略审查，以制定公司未来业务发展的业务计划和战略，并确定为优化和合理化公司的业务活动和资产组合而采取的适当或可取的措施。\nSOHO中国2020年的年报数据显示，公司实现营业收入约21.92亿元，同比增长约19%。其中，租金收入15.37亿元，同比下降16%，出售物业收入6.54亿元。税前利润约16亿元，同比下降约17%；毛利13.9亿元，同比减少7.9%；净利润5.43亿元，同比减少58.8%；净资产负债率约为43%，平均借贷成本约4.7%，总资产约707.04亿元，总负债约331.57亿元。\n截至今日收盘，SOHO中国报3.22港元/股，涨幅1.26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00410":0.9,"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896553631,"gmtCreate":1628595951623,"gmtModify":1676529790763,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","idStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896553631","repostId":"1128522311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128522311","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1628596205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128522311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was \"falsified\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128522311","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳","content":"<p>Previously, following the explosive inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve had consistently claimed that inflation was \"temporary,\" that U.S. inflation would decline in the future, and that the Fed was not yet in a rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the July interest rate meeting that millions of people in the United States remain unemployed. He emphasized that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and creating full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change the loose monetary policy and begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\".</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" can no longer cover it up.</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Data for May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% in June to 61.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year-on-year. Many economists believe that the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth in nearly 40 years this year.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly encouraged the market, and the Federal Reserve may no longer have any reason to be dovish. The market expects a timetable for tapering bond purchases to be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve officials also made hawkish remarks.</b></p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Fed is rapidly approaching the point where it will begin tapering its bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key criterion for starting a rate hike. Bostic stated that he expects to begin tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but is open to starting to taper bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren said the Fed may begin withdrawing support measures sooner than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell's view that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real U.S. employment situation</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job openings increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million. The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. Hiring rose to 6.7 million in June from 6 million the previous month, marking the second-largest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>The job vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly and companies are increasing hiring, but in reality, a large part of the reason is that many Americans are unwilling to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States hit a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made some people unwilling to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high welfare benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the real unemployment rate in the United States is actually higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the pandemic, unemployment benefits in the United States averaged about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus programs, including an additional $300 per week in unemployment benefits.</p><p>This means that the average weekly net income of unemployed Americans reaches $687, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 per hour, more than twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of looking for a job.</p><p>However, enhanced unemployment benefits will soon expire in early September, and many states have even canceled the $300 per week benefit ahead of schedule, potentially costing approximately 7.5 million Americans unemployment benefits. In other words, the most accurate employment data in the United States may not be available for one to two months.</p><p>If the employment data remains strong by then, the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction in asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was \"falsified\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" revealed that the July non-farm payrolls report was \"falsified\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Previously, following the explosive inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve had consistently claimed that inflation was \"temporary,\" that U.S. inflation would decline in the future, and that the Fed was not yet in a rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the July interest rate meeting that millions of people in the United States remain unemployed. He emphasized that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and creating full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" will it be possible to change the loose monetary policy and begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\".</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" can no longer cover it up.</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Data for May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% in June to 61.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July, up 4.0% year-on-year. Many economists believe that the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth in nearly 40 years this year.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payroll data has greatly encouraged the market, and the Federal Reserve may no longer have any reason to be dovish. The market expects a timetable for tapering bond purchases to be released at this month's Jackson Hole meeting or the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve officials also made hawkish remarks.</b></p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Fed is rapidly approaching the point where it will begin tapering its bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key criterion for starting a rate hike. Bostic stated that he expects to begin tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but is open to starting to taper bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren said the Fed may begin withdrawing support measures sooner than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some still agree with Powell's view that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>Real U.S. employment situation</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job openings increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million. The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. Hiring rose to 6.7 million in June from 6 million the previous month, marking the second-largest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>The job vacancies indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly and companies are increasing hiring, but in reality, a large part of the reason is that many Americans are unwilling to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the United States hit a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made some people unwilling to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high welfare benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the real unemployment rate in the United States is actually higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the pandemic, unemployment benefits in the United States averaged about $387 per week. After the pandemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus programs, including an additional $300 per week in unemployment benefits.</p><p>This means that the average weekly net income of unemployed Americans reaches $687, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 per hour, more than twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. No wonder millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" and receive benefits instead of looking for a job.</p><p>However, enhanced unemployment benefits will soon expire in early September, and many states have even canceled the $300 per week benefit ahead of schedule, potentially costing approximately 7.5 million Americans unemployment benefits. In other words, the most accurate employment data in the United States may not be available for one to two months.</p><p>If the employment data remains strong by then, the Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction in asset purchases will be a certainty.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128522311","content_text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。\n一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。\n美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了\n上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。\n如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。\n美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论。\n亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。\n波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。\n虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？\n真实的美国就业状况\n周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空缺增加了59万个，达到1,007.3万个，创纪录新高，远超预期的927万个；5月数据从920.9万上修至950万6月招聘人数从上月的600万升至670万，为政府自2000年开始追踪该资料以来的第二大增幅。\n职位的空缺一方面表明美国经济复苏强劲，各个公司都在加大招聘，但实际上很大一部分原因是由于很多美国人不愿意去工作导致的。\n近期，美国新冠病例数与住院人数创下六个月新高，疫情的爆发令一部分人不愿意重返就业岗位。此外，还有很大一部分人是为了领取高额的救济金而放弃工作，由于没有工作意愿，这部分人是不算在失业率里面的，所以实际上美国的真实失业率是要比5.4%高的。\n在疫情暴发之前，美国的失业补助约为平均每周387美元，而在疫情之后，联邦政府推出了一系列的经济刺激计划，其中就包括每周300美元的额外失业福利。\n这意味着美国失业民众平均每周的净收入达到687美元，相当于每小时17.17美元的工资，是联邦最低工资每小时7.25美元的两倍多，无怪乎数百万的美国人愿意“躺平”领救济金而不去找份工作。\n不过很快，增强型失业救济金将于9月初到期，许多州甚至提前取消了每周300美元的补助，大约750万美国人可能会失去失业救济金。也就是说，美国最真实的就业数据可能需要一到两个月后才能揭晓。\n假如到时候的就业数据依旧强劲的话，美联储的“遮羞布”将不复存在，美联储缩减资产购买规模也将板上钉钉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}