Tesla - Fair Value Of $825

Seeking Alpha2022-05-11

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody ...

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Comments

shshsh1
2022-05-12
shshsh1
Yet again.. seeking alpha lol
Fatfish
2022-05-11
Fatfish
Past Data. Means? Jus look at the fundamentals of the company And continue to DCA
HariSugi
2022-05-11
HariSugi
This is the worse analysis I have read so far. Estimating revenue is not just taking CAGR from the air. A respectable analyst will look at the details. Without the details, it is just a number game anyone can do. Revenue needs to be estimated from the point of view of cars to be delivered based on capacity and ASP. And useprofit margin that is in line with the current situation and the fact that Tesla is doing lots of cost reduction through operational efficiency and giga casting, eliminating many parts and costs.
phongy 45
2022-05-11
phongy 45
Awesome
Kobeba
2022-05-11
Kobeba
$825? U are referring to Tesla sale of EV only right?
BenjiFuji
2022-05-11
BenjiFuji
How will you know if the accounting can be trusted? [Glance]

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Nobody ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla - Fair Value Of $825</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla - Fair Value Of $825\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-11 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825","article_id":"2234623829","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234623829","pubTimestamp":1652238014,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has tra","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉-公允价值825美元","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1},"content_text":"Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody doubts that Tesla has succeeded in becoming profitable, but still, some investors think the stock is overpriced. Tesla does trade at high multiples, but its growth is also very strong. In this article, I try to settle the Tesla valuation question with a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) model. Ultimately I arrive at a $825 valuation, giving it slight upside to today’s price. However, I rate the stock a hold rather than a buy, due to concerns about its accounting.Competitive LandscapeBefore getting into my analysis of Tesla’s fair value, I have to take a look at the company’s competitive position. In a few paragraphs, I will make a revenue growth estimate for Tesla that is above EV industry averages. A company needs a solid competitive position in order to out-grow its industry, so we need to establish Tesla does have a superior market position.Some of the companies Tesla competes with include:Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) - Second place in deliveries after Tesla, with 452,000 BEVs sold in 2021.BYD Motors (OTCPK:BYDDF) - Third place after Volkswagen, with 320,000 BEVs sold in 2021 (593,000 EVs total if you include hybrids).NIO (NIO) and Lucid Motors (LCID) - very small players but noteworthy for their “head to head” competition with Tesla. As luxury EV makers, they are playing the exact same game that Tesla is; VW and BYD ship different kinds of vehicles.Tesla is well ahead of the competition in pure-EV sedans. With 932,000 cars delivered in 2022, it sold more than double what VW did. Tesla’s dominance of the EV industry is lesser if you include trucks, trains and buses. By that standard, BYD, with 593,000 deliveries, is not too far behind Tesla.Can Tesla’s edge in electric cars continue?Right out of the gate, Tesla has an enormous competitive edge over its competitors in the form of free advertising. Elon Musk has one of the world’s biggest Twitter (TWTR) accounts, and he is in the process of “locking in” that advantage by buying Twitter. With 80 million Twitter followers, Musk can reach a lot of people without having to spend a penny on advertising. He uses this advantage to the fullest, getting free publicity through Tweets, TED talks and other unconventional channels. Generating “organic” publicity this way tends to produce superior margins, as it reduces the need for a marketing budget.It isn't easy to explain exactly how valuable Tesla's ability to market itself without paying money for advertising is, but a few points are worth keeping in mind:Tesla was named 2021's fastest growing brand by Visual Capitalist.Tesla was the world's fastest growing automaker in 2020.The company moved from 6th place to 3rd place in the list of world's most valuable automotive brands in 2022.... And all of this was achieved with no marketing budget to speak of! By contrast, Ford (F) spent $468 on marketing per each car sold in 2021.The advantage this provides Tesla is enormous. First of all, it empowers the company to spend way more money on R&D compared to the competition: at $2,984 per car sold, Tesla invests much more in research than the average car company. That can drive innovation over time.Second, this edge provides the potential for superior earnings growth. With lower costs come higher profits, and costs compound just like stock prices do. Below, you will see a model of two nearly identical companies, A and B, growing revenue by 30% and operating costs by 20%. The only difference is that company B has a marketing budget that starts at 10% of sales and grows by 40% per year. In the table below, you will see how much more profit company A has by the end of five years.Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Company A revenue1,0001,300169021972856Company A costs5006007208641036.8Company A profit50070097013331820Company B revenue1,0001,300169021972856Company B costs5006007208641036.8Company B marketing100140196274.4384Company B profit4005607741058.61436As you can see, company A ends up at $1,820 in profit after five years, while company B ends up at $1,612. Company A has a 29.48% CAGR growth rate in profit, while company B grows noticeably slower, at 29.12%. And, of course, Company A's profit is much higher at the end of the period.FinancialsBefore getting into my DCF model for Tesla, I have to explore its financials. It’s not enough to simply project a company’s earnings growth trend into the future, we need to look at the components that make up earnings to really gauge where profits are headed. In addition, we need to factor in variables that haven’t been reported yet but are known to be important, such as rising costs of raw materials.With that in mind, I’ve put together a table with Tesla’s most important earnings-related metrics for the last five years.20172018201920202021Revenue$11.75B$21.46B$24.57B$31.53B$53.8BCost of sales$9.53B$17.42B$20.51B$18.9B$40.2BOperating expenses$3.855B$4.430B$4.138B$4.636B$7BTotal costs$13.385B$21.85B$24.64B$23.56B$47.2BAdjusted EPS$-1.80$-0.27$0.03$2.24$6.78Based on the numbers above, we get growth rates of:36% CAGR in revenue.28% CAGR in costs.If historical trends were to continue into the future, we would expect growing profits. In my estimate, Tesla’s profits will in fact grow. However, we can’t just project past growth into the future. We need to know what factors are going to drive growth in revenue and costs going forward.Revenue is hard to predict because it depends on many factors: demand, supply chains, availability of raw materials and more. We could start from what industry experts are expecting for the market: Facts and Factors expects 24.5% CAGR growth in EVs to 2027. We also know that $53 billion is an enormous amount of revenue, which means that future revenue growth is unlikely to match that observed in the past. We would expect some deceleration. On the other hand, Tesla has advantages over other EV companies, such as brand recognition, a network of charging stations, and free social media advertising. So, we have reasons to expect deceleration, as well as reasons to think Tesla will outperform the industry. So, I’ll estimate Tesla’s future revenue growth at 30% CAGR–above the industry average but slower than Tesla in the past.Estimating Tesla’s costs is a bit easier. We know that car manufacturing is a high variable cost business and that costs increase with each car. So costs will correlate with revenue somewhat. Additionally we know that Tesla’s suppliers are charging it higher prices this year. So, I’ll estimate that total costs grow at 29% CAGR–essentially I’m expecting the past cost trend to continue but nudging it up 100 basis points to reflect this year’s supplier price hikes.The only step left before doing our earnings forecast is to convert the raw ingredients into per share amounts. In its most recent quarter, Tesla had 1.157 billion shares outstanding, so:The $53.8 billion in revenue turns into $46.49 per share.The $47.2 billion in costs turns into $40.79 per share.Starting with these amounts for the base year, we get (on a per share basis):base20222023202420252026REV$46.49$60.43$78.56$102.13$132.78$172.61COST$40.79$52.61$67.87$87.56$112.95$145EBIT$5.7$7.82$10.69$14.57$19.83$27.61Based on these forecasts, we can do a simple DCF model on five years' worth of Tesla's earnings:TOTALCash flows$7.82$10.69$14.57$19.83$27.61N/A(1+r)^n1.0831.1721.271.3751.489N/ADiscounted CF$7.22$9.12$11.47$14.42$24.03$66.26So, our present value for 5 years’ worth of cash flows/EBIT is $66.26 per share. That’s not bad. The only step left is to find a terminal value for Tesla. I’ve assumed a discount rate of 8.3% for the purposes of this analysis. If Tesla’s earnings growth levels off to 4.5% after 5 years, then we get a terminal value of $759. So, we have approximately $66 in discounted cash flows, and a terminal value of $759. That leaves us with a fair value of $825.Why Tesla Eludes an Easy ValuationAs I’ve showed, a basic DCF valuation would say that Tesla is worth $825–slightly more than it’s worth now. This valuation justifies a rating ranging from \"hold\" to a slight buy. That’s what we get with some reasonably conservative estimates of future growth. But before you buy TSLA based on this model, you need to consider some factors that could cause the stock to behave differently than expected.One of these is accounting. Many analysts think that Tesla is aggressively recognizing and potentially overstating its revenue. Without fully endorsing this view, I can give plausible reasons someone would believe it.For example, in fiscal 2021, Tesla reported $5.7 billion in inventory on hand. That was an increase of $1.7 billion from the same quarter a year before. The rate of growth in inventory accelerated as well: in the prior two years, inventory only grew in the hundreds of millions of dollars.It could be that Tesla simply expects a lot more sales in 2022 and is holding inventory for that reason. However, some argue that Tesla simply isn’t selling as many cars as it claims it is. It is well known that Tesla collects cash for transactions that aren’t “sales.” We know, for example, that you can pre-order a Cybertruck, even though the truck isn’t being delivered. Under GAAP, you’re not supposed to count a payment as “revenue” until the product in question is delivered.Could Tesla be bundling Cybertruck deposits with revenue to juice its sales numbers? Ultimately, we don’t know. Over the years, analysts have voiced many concerns with Tesla’s accounting. In addition to the one just mentioned, there have also been concerns about Tesla capitalizing inventory instead of expensing it, in order to boost its margins. If all of these things are going on, then Tesla’s revenue and profit are both being overstated. I do not claim that they are: there are other explanations for the peculiarities I noticed above. But, Tesla’s peculiar accounting is a risk factor to keep in mind.The Bottom LineThe bottom line on Tesla is this:If we can indeed take its financial statements at face value, then its stock is probably worth at least $800. As my discounted cash flow valuation shows, you get to $825 just by assuming five years of strong growth followed by an eternity of sluggish growth. It’s possible that Tesla will not meet the growth figures I estimated for the five-year period, but on the flipside, it could easily continue growing for much more than five years. So, TSLA’s current stock price is not totally unreasonable – assuming its accounting can be trusted.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9064107072,"gmtCreate":1652285665996,"gmtModify":1676535069479,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4102503291622030","authorIdStr":"4102503291622030"},"htmlText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","listText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","text":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064107072","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064933193,"gmtCreate":1652263177012,"gmtModify":1676535064100,"author":{"id":"4107558527965530","authorId":"4107558527965530","name":"Fatfish","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1a877668ab7001a2552d3539aff7972","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107558527965530","authorIdStr":"4107558527965530"},"htmlText":"Past Data. Means? Jus look at the fundamentals of the company And continue to DCA","listText":"Past Data. Means? Jus look at the fundamentals of the company And continue to DCA","text":"Past Data. Means? Jus look at the fundamentals of the company And continue to DCA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064933193","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064903565,"gmtCreate":1652259064357,"gmtModify":1676535063351,"author":{"id":"4101085584242060","authorId":"4101085584242060","name":"HariSugi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101085584242060","authorIdStr":"4101085584242060"},"htmlText":"This is the worse analysis I have read so far. Estimating revenue is not just taking CAGR from the air. A respectable analyst will look at the details. Without the details, it is just a number game anyone can do. Revenue needs to be estimated&nbsp;from the point of view of cars to be delivered based on capacity and ASP. And useprofit margin that is in line with the current situation and the fact that Tesla is doing lots of cost reduction through operational efficiency and giga casting, eliminating many parts and costs.&nbsp;","listText":"This is the worse analysis I have read so far. Estimating revenue is not just taking CAGR from the air. A respectable analyst will look at the details. Without the details, it is just a number game anyone can do. Revenue needs to be estimated&nbsp;from the point of view of cars to be delivered based on capacity and ASP. And useprofit margin that is in line with the current situation and the fact that Tesla is doing lots of cost reduction through operational efficiency and giga casting, eliminating many parts and costs.&nbsp;","text":"This is the worse analysis I have read so far. Estimating revenue is not just taking CAGR from the air. A respectable analyst will look at the details. Without the details, it is just a number game anyone can do. Revenue needs to be estimated from the point of view of cars to be delivered based on capacity and ASP. And useprofit margin that is in line with the current situation and the fact that Tesla is doing lots of cost reduction through operational efficiency and giga casting, eliminating many parts and costs.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064903565","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064035118,"gmtCreate":1652244877034,"gmtModify":1676535061253,"author":{"id":"4101978790494150","authorId":"4101978790494150","name":"phongy 45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f41e543307358288f75d55fe347ad2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101978790494150","authorIdStr":"4101978790494150"},"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064035118","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064096015,"gmtCreate":1652243280137,"gmtModify":1676535060945,"author":{"id":"4108081253060460","authorId":"4108081253060460","name":"Kobeba","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4b9f427a8190f4903e580a059f12ef3","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4108081253060460","authorIdStr":"4108081253060460"},"htmlText":"$825?&nbsp;U are referring to Tesla sale of EV only right?","listText":"$825?&nbsp;U are referring to Tesla sale of EV only right?","text":"$825? U are referring to Tesla sale of EV only right?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064096015","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064098947,"gmtCreate":1652243171389,"gmtModify":1676535060921,"author":{"id":"4110175785559852","authorId":"4110175785559852","name":"BenjiFuji","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/330f59d829009a2c318784ab2b5e6098","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110175785559852","authorIdStr":"4110175785559852"},"htmlText":"How will you know if the accounting can be trusted?&nbsp;[Glance]&nbsp;","listText":"How will you know if the accounting can be trusted?&nbsp;[Glance]&nbsp;","text":"How will you know if the accounting can be trusted? [Glance]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064098947","repostId":2234623829,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":159,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2234623829"}