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shshsh1

shshsh1

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2022-05-18

Seeking alpha again haha

The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start

2022-05-12

Yet again.. seeking alpha lol

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2022-05-08

Oh it's from seekingalpha lol

Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company

2022-03-01

Paid content?

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2022-02-10

Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..

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2022-02-05

Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?

2022-01-24

Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars

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2022-01-06

Sti to lead the way

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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alpha again haha","listText":"Seeking alpha again haha","text":"Seeking alpha again haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023387328","repostId":"1142044909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142044909","pubTimestamp":1652887633,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142044909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-18 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142044909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk&#39;s planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.</li><li>Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there&#39;s a cost to be viewed as a tech company.</li><li>Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.</li><li>We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company&#39;s market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we&#39;ll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.</p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp</p><p>Tesla&#39;s ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7055187c8a6996ce847e2854565136\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it&#39;s worth noting that the company&#39;s factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.</p><p>An example of this can be seen on Tesla&#39;s website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company&#39;s backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.</p><p>With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla&#39;s volume ramp as slowing down. It&#39;s telling that the company doesn&#39;t have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.</p><p>Tesla Energy Storage/Alternatives</p><p>Tesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143000d4559bfef8336756f8721db1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.</p><p>That means that as long as there&#39;s volume demand for the company&#39;s cars, the company&#39;s energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company&#39;s solar business. We&#39;ve discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It&#39;s decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.</p><p>Tesla Insurance</p><p>Another development for Tesla is the company&#39;s announcement that it&#39;s launching an insurance business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50de3780f98ffea0bd1f72d3395fe103\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR Law</p><p>Insurance isn&#39;t a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.</p><p>The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won&#39;t reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.</p><p>Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don&#39;t expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.</p><p>(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can&#39;t offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.</p><p>(2) Reputation. It&#39;s no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.</p><p>Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.</p><p>(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company&#39;s future shareholder returns.</p><p>Tesla and Tech, A Unique Downside</p><p>We want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a &gt;10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It&#39;s well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company&#39;s cars are.</p><p>However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company&#39;s cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company&#39;s cheapest car is more expensive.</p><p>More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla&#39;s unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company&#39;s products, especially higher end products.</p><p>Tesla Isn&#39;t Recession Proof</p><p>Tesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.</p><p>Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn&#39;t mean that they&#39;re making a profit. Tesla hasn&#39;t actually had to face a market downturn yet.</p><p>We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.</p><p>(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.</p><p>(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it&#39;s planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.</p><p><b>Thesis Risk</b></p><p>The largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company&#39;s competitors have struggled to compete. There&#39;s no guarantee that the company can&#39;t continue increasing market share and returns.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Tesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company&#39;s weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk&#39;s ownership and his pledging of the company&#39;s stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.</p><p>The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers&#39; vehicles such as Toyota&#39;s RAV4. We also view the company&#39;s position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142044909","content_text":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's a cost to be viewed as a tech company.Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company's market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk's Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we'll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.Tesla Volume RampTesla's ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it's worth noting that the company's factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.An example of this can be seen on Tesla's website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company's backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla's volume ramp as slowing down. It's telling that the company doesn't have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.Tesla Energy Storage/AlternativesTesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company's energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.That means that as long as there's volume demand for the company's cars, the company's energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company's solar business. We've discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It's decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.Tesla InsuranceAnother development for Tesla is the company's announcement that it's launching an insurance business.Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR LawInsurance isn't a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won't reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don't expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can't offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.(2) Reputation. It's no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company's future shareholder returns.Tesla and Tech, A Unique DownsideWe want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a >10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It's well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company's cars are.However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company's cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company's cheapest car is more expensive.More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla's unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company's products, especially higher end products.Tesla Isn't Recession ProofTesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn't mean that they're making a profit. Tesla hasn't actually had to face a market downturn yet.We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it's planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company's competitors have struggled to compete. There's no guarantee that the company can't continue increasing market share and returns.ConclusionTesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company's weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk's ownership and his pledging of the company's stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers' vehicles such as Toyota's RAV4. We also view the company's position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064107072,"gmtCreate":1652285665996,"gmtModify":1676535069479,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","listText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","text":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064107072","repostId":"2234623829","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062986056,"gmtCreate":1651987375775,"gmtModify":1676535009895,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","listText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","text":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062986056","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"hakunaurtata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","text":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","html":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039449079,"gmtCreate":1646106854692,"gmtModify":1676534092048,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Paid content?","listText":"Paid content?","text":"Paid content?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039449079","repostId":"1106936697","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092033625,"gmtCreate":1644483326300,"gmtModify":1676533932202,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","listText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","text":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092033625","repostId":"1115712053","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098154668,"gmtCreate":1644057877185,"gmtModify":1676533886845,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","listText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","text":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098154668","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007767662,"gmtCreate":1643013312310,"gmtModify":1676533764976,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","listText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","text":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007767662","repostId":"1119030155","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008222491,"gmtCreate":1641464867412,"gmtModify":1676533617882,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sti to lead the way","listText":"Sti to lead the way","text":"Sti to lead the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008222491","repostId":"1115076063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9062986056,"gmtCreate":1651987375775,"gmtModify":1676535009895,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","listText":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","text":"Oh it's from seekingalpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062986056","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436095987","authorId":"3562670436095987","name":"hakunaurtata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631ba6526d1730e263ae54c0eab70e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","text":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]","html":"yep they should keep the negative narrative going on, helps me to accumulate more shares at a cheaper cost! [Cool]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007767662,"gmtCreate":1643013312310,"gmtModify":1676533764976,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","listText":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","text":"Wasn't seeking alpha saying the target is 5 dollars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007767662","repostId":"1119030155","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119030155","pubTimestamp":1643006363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119030155?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119030155","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.</li><li>Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, especially those in emerging technologies, as pandemic-era policy support dwindles with tightening monetary policy on the horizon.</li><li>Yet, there have been no material changes to the bullish thesis supporting Palantir&#39;s growth trajectory - the company continues to be well-positioned for growth opportunities arising from digitization trends.</li><li>Paired with its debt-free balance sheet, robust cash-on-hand balance, continued strength in generating cash from operations, and high-visibility revenues, Palantir makes a favourable investment ahead of the upcoming rate hikes with promising upside realizable over both the near and longer term.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fa252b01d9bd84e39574343c9fb409\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) continues to be caught in the broader market rout these days, with the stock’s value declining more than 12% since the year opened. The current macro backdrop has not made a favourable environment for high-growth segment stocks. The recent release of meeting minutes from the FOMC’s policy meeting in December, paired with increasing consumer price pressures at record-setting levels have triggered hawkish sentiments supporting faster and sooner rate hikes beginning as early as March to curb runaway inflation. The hastened withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus, coupled with the impending return of rate hikes have caused investors to turn risk averse on high-growth, high-valuation stocks. This is largely due to uncertainties over how the upcoming rate hikes might erode the value of future gains or stall business growth due to rising costs of capital.</p><p>While the imminent tightening of monetary policy has stoked fear amongst equity investors as they mull on how to price the upcoming rate hike impacts into asset valuations, we believe Palantir will emerge favourably in both the near- and long-term. On one hand, the inflation-resistant nature of Palantir’s business, paired with its high-growth prospects and ability to generate robust cash flows from operations should make it an attractive stock within the near-term amidst mounting macro pressures. Meanwhile, in the longer term, Palantir’s technology will continue to play a critical role in supporting key digital trends like AI, which will soon become a necessity instead of novelty in the data-driven era. On these considerations, we believe Palantir&#39;s stock will soon resume its upwardmomentum, with the upcoming earnings report being a potential catalyst to jumpstart its performance.</p><p><b>Near-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p>In line with the broader market, Palantir&#39;s stock rallied on the first trading session of the year, with intraday gains of as much as 4%. However, the momentum was short-lived and has since been overtaken by an extended market rout triggered by increasingly hawkish narratives from Fed representatives. The rising urgency for faster and sooner rate hikes to combat the hottest inflation in close to four decades has sent market benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500 on a rundown of close to 5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged by more than 8% since the year opened due to souring sentiment for high-growth, high-valuation stocks that have largely outperformed in the past 20 months. Instead, mature tech companies likeDell(NYSE:DELL) and HP(NYSE:HPQ)have been resilient due to their low debt, high cash flow, and stable-growth businesses, which provides a strong hedge against the impending rate hikes.</p><p>However, Palantir’s upcoming earnings report will likely jumpstart the stock toward a similar trend as the mature tech companies. The company boasts a promising growth outlook built on continued innovation, with high visibility into future cash flows thanks to a robust contracted revenue base. Palantir also operates on a strong balance sheet, which is currently debt-free and boasts a robust cash-on-hand balance of more than $2.3 billion to support continued growth.</p><p>While the impending rate hikes have put investors at the edge of their seats about potentially stalled growth and development in next-generation tech companies due to rising costs of capital in coming years, the fact that Palantir’s operations are already self-sufficient should not be overlooked. In the first nine months of 2021, Palantir generated more than $240 million in cash from operating activities alone, despite year-to-date net losses of $364 million. Much of the losses were driven by share-based compensation expenses, which will likely continue to put pressure on its profit margins in the near-term as the company prioritizes the retention of talent to support ongoing expansion of the business. However, these expenses are non-cash in nature, and when that is taken into account, Palantir is actually profitable on a cash-basis and have continued to demonstrate strength in generating significant free cash flows to fund its growth roadmap. This accordingly provides it with partial immunity against hemorrhaging valuation prospects due to rising costs of capital from the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p>The company’s near-term growth trajectory also remains intact. As of the third quarter period ended September 2021, Palantir’s total unrealized deal value grew by 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion with an average duration of at least four years. Palantir has continued to exhibit strength in both its commercial and government segments. Recent contract wins and extensions have been a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir’s software solutions, as well as accelerated adoption from both the private and public sectors as operations become increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. In addition to the new and renewed contracts during the last three months of 2021, which have been discussed in our most recent coverage, Palantir has rung into the new year with a notable partnership forged with Hyundai Heavy Industries. The $25 million multi-year deal is a symbol of Palantir’s growing presence across the West’s APAC allies, and represents an extension of Palantir’s success in growing its commercial segment over the past year. Under the arrangement, Hyundai Heavy will leverage Palantir’s commercial software, likely Foundry, to create tools for breaking down the siloed data fields across its affiliate groups, which range from shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, and facilitate better-integrated operations. The two companies intend to create a joint venture to commercialize the new tools built on Palantir’s platform, which will create greater exposure for Palantir’s technological capabilities to the global commercial sector, and further fortify the company’s growth prospects.</p><p><b>Long-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p>Over the longer-term, we foresee Palantir’s technologies to evolve from a novelty into a necessity. AI-driven analytical tools like Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry will remain critical functions across both the public and private sectors to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And Palantir is already in the works of pushing its software towards the mainstream by offering a wide range of solutions for organizations across both the private and public sectors to choose from on an as-needed basis.</p><p>The introduction of “Foundry for Builders” in July is one of Palantir’s earliest strategies in opening up its offerings to the mass market. Foundry for Builders is offered under a subscription-based model and breaks down the traditional cost barriers that have hindered access to Palantir’s software solution for smaller commercial customers like Day One start-ups. The new offering enables Palantir to extend its Foundry capabilities to support all types of organizations, ranging from multinational corporations with complex data compilations to small- and medium-sized businesses with limited resources looking for a cost-effective data analytical tool. The strategy is expected to encourage mass market adoption of Palantir’s commercial segment offerings, and ensure further penetration into a total addressable market that is expected to grow from $400 billion today into $500 billion by 2025 and $1.6 trillion by the end of the decade. While the new offering is still in beta phase with availability offered to only a small cohort of start-ups, the positive reception received to date indicates significant potential for wider adoption once introduced to the broader market.</p><p>The recent introduction of industry-specific modular solutions built on Foundry, such as “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Client for Crypto” (“AML / KYC for Crypto”), will also appeal to both government agencies and private businesses looking to tackle some of today’s most challenging problems. With increasing global calls for cutting pollution and combating climate change, Palantir’s Carbon Emissions Management tool can add value by helping its corporate clients integrate emissions data, such as daily pollution volumes across the supply chain and emissions reduction targets, with planned revenues and margins to determine the best trade-off based on their respective business plans and objectives. For instance, the Carbon Emissions Management tool can consolidate emissions data collected from disparate sources in real-time and simulate related impacts under different scenarios to drive the decision-making process on business changes required. The modular offering enables Palantir to capitalize on opportunities arising from growing ESG needs in the private sector, while also helping its clients better manage their emissions impacts and “develop a competitive edge to beat competition and win the market”.</p><p>TheAML/KYC for Crypto solution is also deployed at an opportune time. Securities regulators have made it a priority to rein in the fast-growing cryptocurrency market with new rules, while cryptocurrency exchanges look for solutions to ensure compliance with the changing regulatory landscape. The new AML/KYC for Crypto tool is built on Palantir’s years of expertise in helping both regulators and private financial institutions address AML/KYC compliance considerations, and can be deployed in a time- and cost-effective manner for both sides of the equation across.AML/KYC for Crypto enables a large variety of use-cases ranging from real-time compliance tracking across disparate sources for cryptocurrency exchanges, to potentially regulatory simulations for securities regulators. This makes Palantir well-positioned to capitalize on the rising crypto momentum in coming years – the global blockchain market is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by 2026, with proper management ofAML/KYC considerations encouraging adoption. And North America, Palantir’s key market, will maintain the largest share, underpinning robust demand for the new industry-specific solution in coming years.</p><p>Palantir is also making steady progress towards its ultimate goal of becoming “the U.S. government’s central operating system”. In addition to Palantir’s continued push for its software solutions to be implemented across government agencies ranging from defense to healthcare, the public sector has also become increasingly receptive of reliance on technology and innovation. While the $778 billion annual defense spending budget authorized by the Senate in December remains flat compared to the prior year’s after adjusting for inflation, funding allocated towards R&amp;D and procurement of emerging technologies like AI systems have increased by more than $3 billion. The Pentagon has also welcomed the development and utilization of innovative technologies in defense and combat in recent years, as they work on breaking the high barriers of entry that the giant defense contractors have historically built. In 2020, the agency allocated $1.5 billion in direct funding to more than 1,600 software-as-a-service start-ups, and set aside a number of defense contracts valued at up to $3 million each for early-stage software providers. Frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. have also indicated technology as one of the top three items that can “help reduce their stress and become more effective”. Specifically, tools that can help “automate tasks, provide remote assistance and help communicate with colleagues” are seen as the most helpful. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. government is coming Palantir’s way, underpinning additional multi-year growth in the foreseeable future.</p><p><b>Where Might PLTR Stock be Headed?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d650f70bbfb8bc052e908d417257b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR 12-Month Price Target</span></p><p>Considering Palantir’s growth outlook remains intact for both the near- and longer-term despite mounting macro headwinds, we are maintaining our 12-month price target for the stock at $25.45. Consistent with our previous analysis on potentially better-than-expected FY 2021 financial performance, we believe the upcoming earnings call will be a catalyst to jumpstarting the stock from its recent declines and bolster investors’ confidence on Palantir’s valuation prospects ahead of the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c624a7c885aef549ec989f3dd322797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Analysis</span></p><p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8d5aad1d10fe2ae2a8c1f5a8c0be9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Sensitivity Analysis</span></p><p><i>iii. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c204cfbe554afece4b31e797ea06a30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Base Case Financial Forecast</span></p><p>While Palantir’s mounting share-based compensation balance has been a sign of deterrence for many investors due to added pressure to profit margins and share dilution risks in the long-run, we believe the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects ahead will be more than enough to offset related impacts. Recall from our discussion in earlier sections that share-based compensation expenses are non-cash in nature, thus from a fundamental perspective, Palantir’s free cash flows continue to reflect the underlying business’ high-growth nature. In short, the company continues to be increasingly self-sufficient with a robust cash runway to fund growth in coming years.</p><p>And from a valuation perspective, the share-based compensation issued today cannot be exercised or sold until they vest, which could still be a few years out. Although many senior executives, including CEO Alex Karp, had offloaded a significant volume of shares last year causing stock price pressures, it was part of a long-term compensation-realization scheme, in which share-based compensation issued at the earlier days of Palantir were nearing expiry in December. As such, we are not expecting similar high-volume sell-offs within the foreseeable future.</p><blockquote>As we mentioned on prior earnings calls, Karp was granted options a decade ago which we set to expire on December 3rd of this year. Specifically, as a report equity yields 60.9 million options that were set to expire this December. The taxes from the exercise of the options are more than $0.5 billion. And so we&#39;ve been selling shares along the way to generate funds to pay those taxes. Of the 16.9 million expiring options, he has now exercised 94% of the total. Of the remaining 6%, roughly half or 1.9 million of them will be sold by the expiration date, the other half exercised and as a result, all the near-term expiring options will be exercised.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript</blockquote><p>This is further corroborated by the fact that insider selling activity has since calmed according to recent SEC filings, with only one instance earlier this year by Alex Moore, a Palantir veteran. Similar to other insider share-selling activities observed in the past year, the offloaded shares were done in compliance with Rule 10b5-1, meaning it had been planned in advance and not based on any immediate insider information on the company’s performance. From a fundamental standpoint, the latest share-selling activity also does not imply any adverse impacts to the company’s growth outlook.</p><p>Going forward, we expect share dilutions related to share-based compensation to occur at a much more mild rate, similar to other tech stocks that have very much relied on the non-cash compensation strategy to acquire top talent needed to facilitate growth. And robust fundamental growth in years ahead is expected to compensate for said dilution impacts. Palantir is expected to start realizing nominal profits of $141.1 million by 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by the end of the decade based on our current base case forecast, which is also consistent with anticipated long-term top-line growth that management has guided. The returns are expected to far exceed the anticipated rate of share dilution at 4% per year resulting from the share-based compensation program.</p><p>We also expect share-based compensation expenses to scale back and represent a smaller portion of annual revenues in coming years. Strategically, Palantir’s extension of generous share-based compensation packages for its employees will continue to provide them with an incentive to remain committed to the company’s growth. But to ensure the incentive is useful, it is unlikely that Palantir will do it at the expense of over-diluting the company’s share price over the longer-term. While the current share-based compensation expenses represent a large portion of annual revenues, we expect similar spending will scale back in coming years as the company continues to grow to ensure a balance and alignment of interest between employees and shareholders.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Palantir remains on a robust growth trajectory as global digitization trends in coming years continue to underpin demand for data management and analytics software like Foundry and Gotham. While government contracts, especially those associated with defense, remain Palantir’s priority, the company has made significant progress in strategically capitalizing on growth opportunities from the commercial segment. The resulting fundamental performance is also expected to compensate for any potential share-sale dilutions related to the share-based compensation program over the longer-term. With the stock now trading at a discount of more than 60% from its peak in early 2021 with no material changes to its growth outlook, we consider the recent pullback a reasonable entry point with potential upside momentum to resume going into the upcoming earnings season and as mounting macro headwinds abate.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480629-palantir-stock-buy-sell-current-valuation><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480629-palantir-stock-buy-sell-current-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480629-palantir-stock-buy-sell-current-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119030155","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, especially those in emerging technologies, as pandemic-era policy support dwindles with tightening monetary policy on the horizon.Yet, there have been no material changes to the bullish thesis supporting Palantir's growth trajectory - the company continues to be well-positioned for growth opportunities arising from digitization trends.Paired with its debt-free balance sheet, robust cash-on-hand balance, continued strength in generating cash from operations, and high-visibility revenues, Palantir makes a favourable investment ahead of the upcoming rate hikes with promising upside realizable over both the near and longer term.Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) continues to be caught in the broader market rout these days, with the stock’s value declining more than 12% since the year opened. The current macro backdrop has not made a favourable environment for high-growth segment stocks. The recent release of meeting minutes from the FOMC’s policy meeting in December, paired with increasing consumer price pressures at record-setting levels have triggered hawkish sentiments supporting faster and sooner rate hikes beginning as early as March to curb runaway inflation. The hastened withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus, coupled with the impending return of rate hikes have caused investors to turn risk averse on high-growth, high-valuation stocks. This is largely due to uncertainties over how the upcoming rate hikes might erode the value of future gains or stall business growth due to rising costs of capital.While the imminent tightening of monetary policy has stoked fear amongst equity investors as they mull on how to price the upcoming rate hike impacts into asset valuations, we believe Palantir will emerge favourably in both the near- and long-term. On one hand, the inflation-resistant nature of Palantir’s business, paired with its high-growth prospects and ability to generate robust cash flows from operations should make it an attractive stock within the near-term amidst mounting macro pressures. Meanwhile, in the longer term, Palantir’s technology will continue to play a critical role in supporting key digital trends like AI, which will soon become a necessity instead of novelty in the data-driven era. On these considerations, we believe Palantir's stock will soon resume its upwardmomentum, with the upcoming earnings report being a potential catalyst to jumpstart its performance.Near-Term Considerations for PalantirIn line with the broader market, Palantir's stock rallied on the first trading session of the year, with intraday gains of as much as 4%. However, the momentum was short-lived and has since been overtaken by an extended market rout triggered by increasingly hawkish narratives from Fed representatives. The rising urgency for faster and sooner rate hikes to combat the hottest inflation in close to four decades has sent market benchmarks like the S&P 500 on a rundown of close to 5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged by more than 8% since the year opened due to souring sentiment for high-growth, high-valuation stocks that have largely outperformed in the past 20 months. Instead, mature tech companies likeDell(NYSE:DELL) and HP(NYSE:HPQ)have been resilient due to their low debt, high cash flow, and stable-growth businesses, which provides a strong hedge against the impending rate hikes.However, Palantir’s upcoming earnings report will likely jumpstart the stock toward a similar trend as the mature tech companies. The company boasts a promising growth outlook built on continued innovation, with high visibility into future cash flows thanks to a robust contracted revenue base. Palantir also operates on a strong balance sheet, which is currently debt-free and boasts a robust cash-on-hand balance of more than $2.3 billion to support continued growth.While the impending rate hikes have put investors at the edge of their seats about potentially stalled growth and development in next-generation tech companies due to rising costs of capital in coming years, the fact that Palantir’s operations are already self-sufficient should not be overlooked. In the first nine months of 2021, Palantir generated more than $240 million in cash from operating activities alone, despite year-to-date net losses of $364 million. Much of the losses were driven by share-based compensation expenses, which will likely continue to put pressure on its profit margins in the near-term as the company prioritizes the retention of talent to support ongoing expansion of the business. However, these expenses are non-cash in nature, and when that is taken into account, Palantir is actually profitable on a cash-basis and have continued to demonstrate strength in generating significant free cash flows to fund its growth roadmap. This accordingly provides it with partial immunity against hemorrhaging valuation prospects due to rising costs of capital from the upcoming rate hikes.The company’s near-term growth trajectory also remains intact. As of the third quarter period ended September 2021, Palantir’s total unrealized deal value grew by 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion with an average duration of at least four years. Palantir has continued to exhibit strength in both its commercial and government segments. Recent contract wins and extensions have been a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir’s software solutions, as well as accelerated adoption from both the private and public sectors as operations become increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. In addition to the new and renewed contracts during the last three months of 2021, which have been discussed in our most recent coverage, Palantir has rung into the new year with a notable partnership forged with Hyundai Heavy Industries. The $25 million multi-year deal is a symbol of Palantir’s growing presence across the West’s APAC allies, and represents an extension of Palantir’s success in growing its commercial segment over the past year. Under the arrangement, Hyundai Heavy will leverage Palantir’s commercial software, likely Foundry, to create tools for breaking down the siloed data fields across its affiliate groups, which range from shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, and facilitate better-integrated operations. The two companies intend to create a joint venture to commercialize the new tools built on Palantir’s platform, which will create greater exposure for Palantir’s technological capabilities to the global commercial sector, and further fortify the company’s growth prospects.Long-Term Considerations for PalantirOver the longer-term, we foresee Palantir’s technologies to evolve from a novelty into a necessity. AI-driven analytical tools like Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry will remain critical functions across both the public and private sectors to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And Palantir is already in the works of pushing its software towards the mainstream by offering a wide range of solutions for organizations across both the private and public sectors to choose from on an as-needed basis.The introduction of “Foundry for Builders” in July is one of Palantir’s earliest strategies in opening up its offerings to the mass market. Foundry for Builders is offered under a subscription-based model and breaks down the traditional cost barriers that have hindered access to Palantir’s software solution for smaller commercial customers like Day One start-ups. The new offering enables Palantir to extend its Foundry capabilities to support all types of organizations, ranging from multinational corporations with complex data compilations to small- and medium-sized businesses with limited resources looking for a cost-effective data analytical tool. The strategy is expected to encourage mass market adoption of Palantir’s commercial segment offerings, and ensure further penetration into a total addressable market that is expected to grow from $400 billion today into $500 billion by 2025 and $1.6 trillion by the end of the decade. While the new offering is still in beta phase with availability offered to only a small cohort of start-ups, the positive reception received to date indicates significant potential for wider adoption once introduced to the broader market.The recent introduction of industry-specific modular solutions built on Foundry, such as “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Client for Crypto” (“AML / KYC for Crypto”), will also appeal to both government agencies and private businesses looking to tackle some of today’s most challenging problems. With increasing global calls for cutting pollution and combating climate change, Palantir’s Carbon Emissions Management tool can add value by helping its corporate clients integrate emissions data, such as daily pollution volumes across the supply chain and emissions reduction targets, with planned revenues and margins to determine the best trade-off based on their respective business plans and objectives. For instance, the Carbon Emissions Management tool can consolidate emissions data collected from disparate sources in real-time and simulate related impacts under different scenarios to drive the decision-making process on business changes required. The modular offering enables Palantir to capitalize on opportunities arising from growing ESG needs in the private sector, while also helping its clients better manage their emissions impacts and “develop a competitive edge to beat competition and win the market”.TheAML/KYC for Crypto solution is also deployed at an opportune time. Securities regulators have made it a priority to rein in the fast-growing cryptocurrency market with new rules, while cryptocurrency exchanges look for solutions to ensure compliance with the changing regulatory landscape. The new AML/KYC for Crypto tool is built on Palantir’s years of expertise in helping both regulators and private financial institutions address AML/KYC compliance considerations, and can be deployed in a time- and cost-effective manner for both sides of the equation across.AML/KYC for Crypto enables a large variety of use-cases ranging from real-time compliance tracking across disparate sources for cryptocurrency exchanges, to potentially regulatory simulations for securities regulators. This makes Palantir well-positioned to capitalize on the rising crypto momentum in coming years – the global blockchain market is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by 2026, with proper management ofAML/KYC considerations encouraging adoption. And North America, Palantir’s key market, will maintain the largest share, underpinning robust demand for the new industry-specific solution in coming years.Palantir is also making steady progress towards its ultimate goal of becoming “the U.S. government’s central operating system”. In addition to Palantir’s continued push for its software solutions to be implemented across government agencies ranging from defense to healthcare, the public sector has also become increasingly receptive of reliance on technology and innovation. While the $778 billion annual defense spending budget authorized by the Senate in December remains flat compared to the prior year’s after adjusting for inflation, funding allocated towards R&D and procurement of emerging technologies like AI systems have increased by more than $3 billion. The Pentagon has also welcomed the development and utilization of innovative technologies in defense and combat in recent years, as they work on breaking the high barriers of entry that the giant defense contractors have historically built. In 2020, the agency allocated $1.5 billion in direct funding to more than 1,600 software-as-a-service start-ups, and set aside a number of defense contracts valued at up to $3 million each for early-stage software providers. Frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. have also indicated technology as one of the top three items that can “help reduce their stress and become more effective”. Specifically, tools that can help “automate tasks, provide remote assistance and help communicate with colleagues” are seen as the most helpful. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. government is coming Palantir’s way, underpinning additional multi-year growth in the foreseeable future.Where Might PLTR Stock be Headed?PLTR 12-Month Price TargetConsidering Palantir’s growth outlook remains intact for both the near- and longer-term despite mounting macro headwinds, we are maintaining our 12-month price target for the stock at $25.45. Consistent with our previous analysis on potentially better-than-expected FY 2021 financial performance, we believe the upcoming earnings call will be a catalyst to jumpstarting the stock from its recent declines and bolster investors’ confidence on Palantir’s valuation prospects ahead of the upcoming rate hikes.i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:PLTR Valuation Analysisii. Sensitivity Analysis:PLTR Sensitivity Analysisiii. Base Case Financial Forecast:PLTR Base Case Financial ForecastWhile Palantir’s mounting share-based compensation balance has been a sign of deterrence for many investors due to added pressure to profit margins and share dilution risks in the long-run, we believe the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects ahead will be more than enough to offset related impacts. Recall from our discussion in earlier sections that share-based compensation expenses are non-cash in nature, thus from a fundamental perspective, Palantir’s free cash flows continue to reflect the underlying business’ high-growth nature. In short, the company continues to be increasingly self-sufficient with a robust cash runway to fund growth in coming years.And from a valuation perspective, the share-based compensation issued today cannot be exercised or sold until they vest, which could still be a few years out. Although many senior executives, including CEO Alex Karp, had offloaded a significant volume of shares last year causing stock price pressures, it was part of a long-term compensation-realization scheme, in which share-based compensation issued at the earlier days of Palantir were nearing expiry in December. As such, we are not expecting similar high-volume sell-offs within the foreseeable future.As we mentioned on prior earnings calls, Karp was granted options a decade ago which we set to expire on December 3rd of this year. Specifically, as a report equity yields 60.9 million options that were set to expire this December. The taxes from the exercise of the options are more than $0.5 billion. And so we've been selling shares along the way to generate funds to pay those taxes. Of the 16.9 million expiring options, he has now exercised 94% of the total. Of the remaining 6%, roughly half or 1.9 million of them will be sold by the expiration date, the other half exercised and as a result, all the near-term expiring options will be exercised.Source:Q3 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptThis is further corroborated by the fact that insider selling activity has since calmed according to recent SEC filings, with only one instance earlier this year by Alex Moore, a Palantir veteran. Similar to other insider share-selling activities observed in the past year, the offloaded shares were done in compliance with Rule 10b5-1, meaning it had been planned in advance and not based on any immediate insider information on the company’s performance. From a fundamental standpoint, the latest share-selling activity also does not imply any adverse impacts to the company’s growth outlook.Going forward, we expect share dilutions related to share-based compensation to occur at a much more mild rate, similar to other tech stocks that have very much relied on the non-cash compensation strategy to acquire top talent needed to facilitate growth. And robust fundamental growth in years ahead is expected to compensate for said dilution impacts. Palantir is expected to start realizing nominal profits of $141.1 million by 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by the end of the decade based on our current base case forecast, which is also consistent with anticipated long-term top-line growth that management has guided. The returns are expected to far exceed the anticipated rate of share dilution at 4% per year resulting from the share-based compensation program.We also expect share-based compensation expenses to scale back and represent a smaller portion of annual revenues in coming years. Strategically, Palantir’s extension of generous share-based compensation packages for its employees will continue to provide them with an incentive to remain committed to the company’s growth. But to ensure the incentive is useful, it is unlikely that Palantir will do it at the expense of over-diluting the company’s share price over the longer-term. While the current share-based compensation expenses represent a large portion of annual revenues, we expect similar spending will scale back in coming years as the company continues to grow to ensure a balance and alignment of interest between employees and shareholders.ConclusionPalantir remains on a robust growth trajectory as global digitization trends in coming years continue to underpin demand for data management and analytics software like Foundry and Gotham. While government contracts, especially those associated with defense, remain Palantir’s priority, the company has made significant progress in strategically capitalizing on growth opportunities from the commercial segment. The resulting fundamental performance is also expected to compensate for any potential share-sale dilutions related to the share-based compensation program over the longer-term. With the stock now trading at a discount of more than 60% from its peak in early 2021 with no material changes to its growth outlook, we consider the recent pullback a reasonable entry point with potential upside momentum to resume going into the upcoming earnings season and as mounting macro headwinds abate.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023387328,"gmtCreate":1652868195464,"gmtModify":1676535177545,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking alpha again haha","listText":"Seeking alpha again haha","text":"Seeking alpha again haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023387328","repostId":"1142044909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142044909","pubTimestamp":1652887633,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142044909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-18 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142044909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk&#39;s planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.</li><li>Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there&#39;s a cost to be viewed as a tech company.</li><li>Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.</li><li>We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company&#39;s market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we&#39;ll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.</p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp</p><p>Tesla&#39;s ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7055187c8a6996ce847e2854565136\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it&#39;s worth noting that the company&#39;s factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.</p><p>An example of this can be seen on Tesla&#39;s website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company&#39;s backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.</p><p>With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla&#39;s volume ramp as slowing down. It&#39;s telling that the company doesn&#39;t have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.</p><p>Tesla Energy Storage/Alternatives</p><p>Tesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143000d4559bfef8336756f8721db1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.</p><p>That means that as long as there&#39;s volume demand for the company&#39;s cars, the company&#39;s energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company&#39;s solar business. We&#39;ve discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It&#39;s decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.</p><p>Tesla Insurance</p><p>Another development for Tesla is the company&#39;s announcement that it&#39;s launching an insurance business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50de3780f98ffea0bd1f72d3395fe103\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR Law</p><p>Insurance isn&#39;t a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.</p><p>The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won&#39;t reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.</p><p>Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don&#39;t expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.</p><p>(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can&#39;t offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.</p><p>(2) Reputation. It&#39;s no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.</p><p>Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.</p><p>(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company&#39;s future shareholder returns.</p><p>Tesla and Tech, A Unique Downside</p><p>We want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a &gt;10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It&#39;s well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company&#39;s cars are.</p><p>However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company&#39;s cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company&#39;s cheapest car is more expensive.</p><p>More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla&#39;s unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company&#39;s products, especially higher end products.</p><p>Tesla Isn&#39;t Recession Proof</p><p>Tesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.</p><p>Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn&#39;t mean that they&#39;re making a profit. Tesla hasn&#39;t actually had to face a market downturn yet.</p><p>We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.</p><p>(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.</p><p>(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it&#39;s planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.</p><p><b>Thesis Risk</b></p><p>The largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company&#39;s competitors have struggled to compete. There&#39;s no guarantee that the company can&#39;t continue increasing market share and returns.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Tesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company&#39;s weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk&#39;s ownership and his pledging of the company&#39;s stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.</p><p>The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers&#39; vehicles such as Toyota&#39;s RAV4. We also view the company&#39;s position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142044909","content_text":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's a cost to be viewed as a tech company.Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company's market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk's Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we'll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.Tesla Volume RampTesla's ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it's worth noting that the company's factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.An example of this can be seen on Tesla's website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company's backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla's volume ramp as slowing down. It's telling that the company doesn't have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.Tesla Energy Storage/AlternativesTesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company's energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.That means that as long as there's volume demand for the company's cars, the company's energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company's solar business. We've discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It's decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.Tesla InsuranceAnother development for Tesla is the company's announcement that it's launching an insurance business.Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR LawInsurance isn't a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won't reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don't expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can't offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.(2) Reputation. It's no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company's future shareholder returns.Tesla and Tech, A Unique DownsideWe want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a >10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It's well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company's cars are.However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company's cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company's cheapest car is more expensive.More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla's unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company's products, especially higher end products.Tesla Isn't Recession ProofTesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn't mean that they're making a profit. Tesla hasn't actually had to face a market downturn yet.We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it's planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company's competitors have struggled to compete. There's no guarantee that the company can't continue increasing market share and returns.ConclusionTesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company's weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk's ownership and his pledging of the company's stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers' vehicles such as Toyota's RAV4. We also view the company's position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098154668,"gmtCreate":1644057877185,"gmtModify":1676533886845,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","listText":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","text":"Didn't seeking alpha have an article saying pltr is only worth $5?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098154668","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008222491,"gmtCreate":1641464867412,"gmtModify":1676533617882,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sti to lead the way","listText":"Sti to lead the way","text":"Sti to lead the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008222491","repostId":"1115076063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039449079,"gmtCreate":1646106854692,"gmtModify":1676534092048,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Paid content?","listText":"Paid content?","text":"Paid content?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039449079","repostId":"1106936697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106936697","pubTimestamp":1646104713,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106936697?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106936697","media":"investorplace","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.</p><p>Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.</p><p>Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.</p><p>That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.</p><h2>Tesla Still Just Makes Cars</h2><p>CEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.</p><p>Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.</p><p>It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.</p><p>The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.</p><p>To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).</p><h2>Stock Market Exuberance</h2><p>Tesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.</p><p>That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.</p><p>But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.</p><p>We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.</p><p>Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.</p><h2>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</h2><p>There are limits to what investors should pay for growth.</p><p>I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.</p><p>This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.</p><p>If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106936697","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.Tesla Still Just Makes CarsCEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).Stock Market ExuberanceTesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockThere are limits to what investors should pay for growth.I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092033625,"gmtCreate":1644483326300,"gmtModify":1676533932202,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","listText":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","text":"Lol. Not too long ago seeking alpha was saying pltr was $5..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092033625","repostId":"1115712053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115712053","pubTimestamp":1644472527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115712053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-10 13:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115712053","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.</li><li>Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.</li><li>FY 2022 revenue and free cash flow guidance could be very strong and result in a new upleg for Palantir&#39;s beaten-down shares.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60bbceb66471a658f5f3ede016f552f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>Shares of Palantir (PLTR) dropped into a down-trend in November and are now trading near 1-year lows. While the tech sector and growth plays are apparently out of favor now, Palantir’s approaching earnings date could supply a catalyst for a new upleg. Palantir is set to report record revenues and free cash flow next week, and may initiate strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. Since an acceleration of growth in the private enterprise business can also be expected for Q4&#39;21, shares of Palantir are a buy before the company reports earnings!</p><p><b>Why Palantir could be set to crush earnings expectations</b></p><p>The earnings date for Palantir is approaching and the software analytics firm could supply an earnings card that is much better than expected.Palantir’s guidance for the fourth-quarter and for the 2021 fiscal year calls for:</p><ul><li>Q4’21 revenues of $418M, implying 7% quarter over quarter growth</li><li>Q4’21 adjusted operating margin of 22%</li><li>FY 2021 revenues of $1.53B, implying 40% revenue growth year over year</li><li>FY 2021 free cash flow of at least $400M.</li></ul><p>Given that momentum in Palantir’s (private enterprise) business accelerated throughout 2021 and that the firm increased its free cash flow guidance for FY 2021 more than once last year, I believe Palantir is going to report much better results for the fourth-quarter and for the full-year than what the company itself guided for. The result could be a major revaluation of Palantir’s shares next week, especially if an impressive earnings card goes together with strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022.</p><p>For the fourth-quarter, I expect revenues of $725M, $7M above guidance and an adjusted operating margin of 28-30%, significantly above Palantir’s margin guidance of 22%. The reason for these optimistic predictions is that more commercial clients will likely have taken up Palantir’s services in the fourth-quarter and the private enterprise business has seen a consistent revenue acceleration last year. More clients have signed on to Palantir’s software platform throughout the year and the company expanded its client base materially in FY 2021. Palantir added 64 clients to its software platform last year which calculates to an average net addition of 21 new paying clients per quarter. However, Palantir’s customer acquisition also accelerated in every single quarter in 2021, showing real momentum that has been reflected in Palantir’s significant revenue and free cash flow ramp.</p><p>What is also making a difference for Palantir besides a growing commercial client book is growth in average revenue per customer. The average top twenty customer spend $41M on Palantir’s services in the third-quarter which is a 35% increase over the year-earlier period. I estimate that Palantir, due to strong customer acquisition in Q4&#39;21, will have grown this figure to $43M by year-end 2021.</p><p>In the third-quarter, Palantir’s commercial customer count increased a massive 46%, quarter over quarter, as more customers adopted Palantir’s Foundry for Builders. Palantir reported accelerating commercial revenue growthe very single quarter in FY 2021 and could close in on 40% commercial revenue growth, year over year, in the fourth-quarter. This momentum in the private enterprise market strongly raises the possibility of a material free cash flow outperformance for FY 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a230b19fd3518c891d95ad919b204d79\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>The most important financial figure Palantir is going to report next week will be free cash flow. If I had to pinpoint one specific financial number that could make or break Palantir’s future, it would be this one.</p><p>What investors should remember is that Palantir a year ago expected FY 2021 to only be a free cash flow breakeven year. The firm started to materially increase its free cash flow guidance in the first-quarter 2021. Palantir guided for at least $400M in free cash flow for FY 2021, but the company already secured 80% of its low-case free cash flow guidance by the end of Q3’21. Third-quarter free cash flow was $119M, showing 139% quarter over quarter growth. At the same time, the free cash flow margin improved from 13% to 30%, meaning revenue to free cash flow conversion improved dramatically in the second half of the year. Palantir would therefore only have to report $80M in Q4&#39;21 free cash flow to meet its full-year FCF guidance, which is something Palantir should easily be able to do. I estimate that Palantir could report FY 2021 free cash flow of up to $460M based off of growing average revenue per customer, rising Foundry for Builders adoption, a higher commercial customer count and a free cash flow margin of 30%.</p><p>The most interesting part of Palantir’s earnings card next week, however, will be the free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. I believe this guidance especially has the potential to power Palantir’s shares higher.</p><p>Because of the momentum in Palantir’s business, I am raising my revenue estimate for FY 2022 to $2.13B, 5% above my last estimate of $2.03B. Assuming a 35% free cash flow margin, Palantir could generate $745M in free cash flow in FY 2022, indicating 86% year over year growth potential (calculated based off of Palantir’s full-year FCF guidance of $400M). Free cash flow, however, could be even better. Palantir started a new business called Foundry for Crypto lately, which is an entirely new segment that is targeting the rapidly evolving market for digital currencies. Palantir started the business in 2021 and is going to roll out services at scale in 2022. If this business gets a good start, it wouldn’t take much for Palantir to double its free cash flow, year over year, in FY 2022.</p><p><b>Palantir is cheap</b></p><p>Palantir’s earnings card for FY 2021 and guidance for FY 2022 will have an impact on estimates. Currently, revenue estimates are anchored at around $2.0B for FY 2022. If Palantir’s guidance calls for more than 30% revenue growth this year- which I believe is very likely- revenue predictions will be refreshed and shares of Palantir will have a lower sales multiplier factor.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331423415d1d7437492759507d7115fa\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Risks with Palantir</b></p><p>Slowing revenue and free cash flow growth, weaker free cash flow and operating margins, a disappointing FCF guidance for FY 2022 are all risks for Palantir. The canary in the coal mine is likely slowing growth in the private enterprise business, because this is what supports Palantir&#39;s revenue and free cash flow gains right now.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>I believe Palantir is going to crush it next week. Specifically, I expect that Palantir will outperform its own guidance regarding Q4’21 and full-year revenues and free cash flow. Average revenue per customer should also continue to grow. The free cash flow guidance for FY 2022, however, could be a real beauty considering Palantir’s revenue acceleration in the private enterprise business and stronger free cash flow (margins) in the second half of the year. If FY 2022 revenue and FCF guidance is strong- which I believe it will be- Palantir is up for a major revaluation in the stock market!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is Set To Beat Free Cash Flow Expectations, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 13:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.FY ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485431-palantir-q4-earnings-preview-poised-beat-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115712053","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is expected to submit its earnings card on Thursday, February 17, 2022.Momentum in the private enterprise business could see Palantir materially beat its own guidance for FY 2021.FY 2022 revenue and free cash flow guidance could be very strong and result in a new upleg for Palantir's beaten-down shares.NicoElNino/iStock via Getty ImagesShares of Palantir (PLTR) dropped into a down-trend in November and are now trading near 1-year lows. While the tech sector and growth plays are apparently out of favor now, Palantir’s approaching earnings date could supply a catalyst for a new upleg. Palantir is set to report record revenues and free cash flow next week, and may initiate strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. Since an acceleration of growth in the private enterprise business can also be expected for Q4'21, shares of Palantir are a buy before the company reports earnings!Why Palantir could be set to crush earnings expectationsThe earnings date for Palantir is approaching and the software analytics firm could supply an earnings card that is much better than expected.Palantir’s guidance for the fourth-quarter and for the 2021 fiscal year calls for:Q4’21 revenues of $418M, implying 7% quarter over quarter growthQ4’21 adjusted operating margin of 22%FY 2021 revenues of $1.53B, implying 40% revenue growth year over yearFY 2021 free cash flow of at least $400M.Given that momentum in Palantir’s (private enterprise) business accelerated throughout 2021 and that the firm increased its free cash flow guidance for FY 2021 more than once last year, I believe Palantir is going to report much better results for the fourth-quarter and for the full-year than what the company itself guided for. The result could be a major revaluation of Palantir’s shares next week, especially if an impressive earnings card goes together with strong free cash flow guidance for FY 2022.For the fourth-quarter, I expect revenues of $725M, $7M above guidance and an adjusted operating margin of 28-30%, significantly above Palantir’s margin guidance of 22%. The reason for these optimistic predictions is that more commercial clients will likely have taken up Palantir’s services in the fourth-quarter and the private enterprise business has seen a consistent revenue acceleration last year. More clients have signed on to Palantir’s software platform throughout the year and the company expanded its client base materially in FY 2021. Palantir added 64 clients to its software platform last year which calculates to an average net addition of 21 new paying clients per quarter. However, Palantir’s customer acquisition also accelerated in every single quarter in 2021, showing real momentum that has been reflected in Palantir’s significant revenue and free cash flow ramp.What is also making a difference for Palantir besides a growing commercial client book is growth in average revenue per customer. The average top twenty customer spend $41M on Palantir’s services in the third-quarter which is a 35% increase over the year-earlier period. I estimate that Palantir, due to strong customer acquisition in Q4'21, will have grown this figure to $43M by year-end 2021.In the third-quarter, Palantir’s commercial customer count increased a massive 46%, quarter over quarter, as more customers adopted Palantir’s Foundry for Builders. Palantir reported accelerating commercial revenue growthe very single quarter in FY 2021 and could close in on 40% commercial revenue growth, year over year, in the fourth-quarter. This momentum in the private enterprise market strongly raises the possibility of a material free cash flow outperformance for FY 2021.PalantirThe most important financial figure Palantir is going to report next week will be free cash flow. If I had to pinpoint one specific financial number that could make or break Palantir’s future, it would be this one.What investors should remember is that Palantir a year ago expected FY 2021 to only be a free cash flow breakeven year. The firm started to materially increase its free cash flow guidance in the first-quarter 2021. Palantir guided for at least $400M in free cash flow for FY 2021, but the company already secured 80% of its low-case free cash flow guidance by the end of Q3’21. Third-quarter free cash flow was $119M, showing 139% quarter over quarter growth. At the same time, the free cash flow margin improved from 13% to 30%, meaning revenue to free cash flow conversion improved dramatically in the second half of the year. Palantir would therefore only have to report $80M in Q4'21 free cash flow to meet its full-year FCF guidance, which is something Palantir should easily be able to do. I estimate that Palantir could report FY 2021 free cash flow of up to $460M based off of growing average revenue per customer, rising Foundry for Builders adoption, a higher commercial customer count and a free cash flow margin of 30%.The most interesting part of Palantir’s earnings card next week, however, will be the free cash flow guidance for FY 2022. I believe this guidance especially has the potential to power Palantir’s shares higher.Because of the momentum in Palantir’s business, I am raising my revenue estimate for FY 2022 to $2.13B, 5% above my last estimate of $2.03B. Assuming a 35% free cash flow margin, Palantir could generate $745M in free cash flow in FY 2022, indicating 86% year over year growth potential (calculated based off of Palantir’s full-year FCF guidance of $400M). Free cash flow, however, could be even better. Palantir started a new business called Foundry for Crypto lately, which is an entirely new segment that is targeting the rapidly evolving market for digital currencies. Palantir started the business in 2021 and is going to roll out services at scale in 2022. If this business gets a good start, it wouldn’t take much for Palantir to double its free cash flow, year over year, in FY 2022.Palantir is cheapPalantir’s earnings card for FY 2021 and guidance for FY 2022 will have an impact on estimates. Currently, revenue estimates are anchored at around $2.0B for FY 2022. If Palantir’s guidance calls for more than 30% revenue growth this year- which I believe is very likely- revenue predictions will be refreshed and shares of Palantir will have a lower sales multiplier factor.Data by YChartsRisks with PalantirSlowing revenue and free cash flow growth, weaker free cash flow and operating margins, a disappointing FCF guidance for FY 2022 are all risks for Palantir. The canary in the coal mine is likely slowing growth in the private enterprise business, because this is what supports Palantir's revenue and free cash flow gains right now.Final thoughtsI believe Palantir is going to crush it next week. Specifically, I expect that Palantir will outperform its own guidance regarding Q4’21 and full-year revenues and free cash flow. Average revenue per customer should also continue to grow. The free cash flow guidance for FY 2022, however, could be a real beauty considering Palantir’s revenue acceleration in the private enterprise business and stronger free cash flow (margins) in the second half of the year. If FY 2022 revenue and FCF guidance is strong- which I believe it will be- Palantir is up for a major revaluation in the stock market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064107072,"gmtCreate":1652285665996,"gmtModify":1676535069479,"author":{"id":"4102503291622030","authorId":"4102503291622030","name":"shshsh1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3822ceefb8038dc7ae984cff6c96ebab","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","listText":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","text":"Yet again.. seeking alpha lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064107072","repostId":"2234623829","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234623829","pubTimestamp":1652238014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234623829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-11 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla - Fair Value Of $825","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234623829","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has tra","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody doubts that Tesla has succeeded in becoming profitable, but still, some investors think the stock is overpriced. Tesla does trade at high multiples, but its growth is also very strong. In this article, I try to settle the Tesla valuation question with a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) model. Ultimately I arrive at a $825 valuation, giving it slight upside to today’s price. However, I rate the stock a hold rather than a buy, due to concerns about its accounting.</p><h2>Competitive Landscape</h2><p>Before getting into my analysis of Tesla’s fair value, I have to take a look at the company’s competitive position. In a few paragraphs, I will make a revenue growth estimate for Tesla that is above EV industry averages. A company needs a solid competitive position in order to out-grow its industry, so we need to establish Tesla does have a superior market position.</p><p>Some of the companies Tesla competes with include:</p><ul><li><p><b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY) - Second place in deliveries after Tesla, with 452,000 BEVs sold in 2021.</p></li><li><p><b>BYD Motors</b> (OTCPK:BYDDF) - Third place after Volkswagen, with 320,000 BEVs sold in 2021 (593,000 EVs total if you include hybrids).</p></li><li><p><b>NIO</b> (NIO) and <b>Lucid Motors</b> (LCID) - very small players but noteworthy for their “head to head” competition with Tesla. As luxury EV makers, they are playing the exact same game that Tesla is; VW and BYD ship different kinds of vehicles.</p></li></ul><p>Tesla is well ahead of the competition in pure-EV sedans. With 932,000 cars delivered in 2022, it sold more than double what VW did. Tesla’s dominance of the EV industry is lesser if you include trucks, trains and buses. By that standard, BYD, with 593,000 deliveries, is not too far behind Tesla.</p><p>Can Tesla’s edge in electric cars continue?</p><p>Right out of the gate, Tesla has an enormous competitive edge over its competitors in the form of free advertising. Elon Musk has <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world’s biggest <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a></b> (TWTR) accounts, and he is in the process of “locking in” that advantage by buying Twitter. With 80 million Twitter followers, Musk can reach a lot of people without having to spend a penny on advertising. He uses this advantage to the fullest, getting free publicity through Tweets, TED talks and other unconventional channels. Generating “organic” publicity this way tends to produce superior margins, as it reduces the need for a marketing budget.</p><p>It isn&#39;t easy to explain exactly how valuable Tesla&#39;s ability to market itself without paying money for advertising is, but a few points are worth keeping in mind:</p><ul><li>Tesla was named 2021&#39;s fastest growing brand by Visual Capitalist.</li><li>Tesla was the world&#39;s fastest growing automaker in 2020.</li><li>The company moved from 6th place to 3rd place in the list of world&#39;s most valuable automotive brands in 2022.</li></ul><p>... And all of this was achieved with no marketing budget to speak of! By contrast, <b>Ford </b>(F) spent $468 on marketing per each car sold in 2021.</p><p>The advantage this provides Tesla is enormous. First of all, it empowers the company to spend way more money on R&amp;D compared to the competition: at $2,984 per car sold, Tesla invests much more in research than the average car company. That can drive innovation over time.</p><p>Second, this edge provides the potential for superior earnings growth. With lower costs come higher profits, and costs compound just like stock prices do. Below, you will see a model of two nearly identical companies, A and B, growing revenue by 30% and operating costs by 20%. The only difference is that company B has a marketing budget that starts at 10% of sales and grows by 40% per year. In the table below, you will see how much more profit company A has by the end of five years.</p><table><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Year 1</td><td>Year 2</td><td>Year 3</td><td>Year 4</td><td>Year 5</td></tr><tr><td>Company A revenue</td><td>1,000</td><td>1,300</td><td>1690</td><td>2197</td><td>2856</td></tr><tr><td>Company A costs</td><td>500</td><td>600</td><td>720</td><td>864</td><td>1036.8</td></tr><tr><td>Company A profit</td><td>500</td><td>700</td><td>970</td><td>1333</td><td><b>1820</b></td></tr><tr><td>Company B revenue</td><td>1,000</td><td>1,300</td><td>1690</td><td>2197</td><td>2856</td></tr><tr><td>Company B costs</td><td>500</td><td>600</td><td>720</td><td>864</td><td>1036.8</td></tr><tr><td>Company B marketing</td><td>100</td><td>140</td><td>196</td><td>274.4</td><td>384</td></tr><tr><td>Company B profit</td><td>400</td><td>560</td><td>774</td><td>1058.6</td><td><b>1436</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>As you can see, company A ends up at $1,820 in profit after five years, while company B ends up at $1,612. Company A has a 29.48% CAGR growth rate in profit, while company B grows noticeably slower, at 29.12%. And, of course, Company A&#39;s profit is much higher at the end of the period.</p><h2>Financials</h2><p>Before getting into my DCF model for Tesla, I have to explore its financials. It’s not enough to simply project a company’s earnings growth trend into the future, we need to look at the components that make up earnings to really gauge where profits are headed. In addition, we need to factor in variables that haven’t been reported yet but are known to be important, such as rising costs of raw materials.</p><p>With that in mind, I’ve put together a table with Tesla’s most important earnings-related metrics for the last five years.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td><p>2017</p></td><td><p>2018</p></td><td><p>2019</p></td><td><p>2020</p></td><td><p>2021</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Revenue</p></td><td><p>$11.75B</p></td><td><p>$21.46B</p></td><td><p>$24.57B</p></td><td><p>$31.53B</p></td><td><p>$53.8B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Cost of sales</p></td><td><p>$9.53B</p></td><td><p>$17.42B</p></td><td><p>$20.51B</p></td><td><p>$18.9B</p></td><td><p>$40.2B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Operating expenses</p></td><td><p>$3.855B</p></td><td><p>$4.430B</p></td><td><p>$4.138B</p></td><td><p>$4.636B</p></td><td><p>$7B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Total costs</p></td><td><p>$13.385B</p></td><td><p>$21.85B</p></td><td><p>$24.64B</p></td><td><p>$23.56B</p></td><td><p>$47.2B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Adjusted EPS</p></td><td><p>$-1.80</p></td><td><p>$-0.27</p></td><td><p>$0.03</p></td><td><p>$2.24</p></td><td><p>$6.78</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Based on the numbers above, we get growth rates of:</p><ul><li><p>36% CAGR in revenue.</p></li><li><p>28% CAGR in costs.</p></li></ul><p>If historical trends were to continue into the future, we would expect growing profits. In my estimate, Tesla’s profits will in fact grow. However, we can’t just project past growth into the future. We need to know what factors are going to drive growth in revenue and costs going forward.</p><p>Revenue is hard to predict because it depends on many factors: demand, supply chains, availability of raw materials and more. We could start from what industry experts are expecting for the market: Facts and Factors expects 24.5% CAGR growth in EVs to 2027. We also know that $53 billion is an enormous amount of revenue, which means that future revenue growth is unlikely to match that observed in the past. We would expect some deceleration. On the other hand, Tesla has advantages over other EV companies, such as brand recognition, a network of charging stations, and free social media advertising. So, we have reasons to expect deceleration, as well as reasons to think Tesla will outperform the industry. So, I’ll estimate Tesla’s future revenue growth at 30% CAGR–above the industry average but slower than Tesla in the past.</p><p>Estimating Tesla’s costs is a bit easier. We know that car manufacturing is a high variable cost business and that costs increase with each car. So costs will correlate with revenue somewhat. Additionally we know that Tesla’s suppliers are charging it higher prices this year. So, I’ll estimate that total costs grow at 29% CAGR–essentially I’m expecting the past cost trend to continue but nudging it up 100 basis points to reflect this year’s supplier price hikes.</p><p>The only step left before doing our earnings forecast is to convert the raw ingredients into per share amounts. In its most recent quarter, Tesla had 1.157 billion shares outstanding, so:</p><ul><li><p>The $53.8 billion in revenue turns into $46.49 per share.</p></li><li><p>The $47.2 billion in costs turns into $40.79 per share.</p></li></ul><p>Starting with these amounts for the base year, we get (on a per share basis):</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td><p>base</p></td><td><p>2022</p></td><td><p>2023</p></td><td><p>2024</p></td><td><p>2025</p></td><td><p>2026</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>REV</p></td><td><p>$46.49</p></td><td><p>$60.43</p></td><td><p>$78.56</p></td><td><p>$102.13</p></td><td><p>$132.78</p></td><td><p>$172.61</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>COST</p></td><td><p>$40.79</p></td><td><p>$52.61</p></td><td><p>$67.87</p></td><td><p>$87.56</p></td><td><p>$112.95</p></td><td><p>$145</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>EBIT</p></td><td><p>$5.7</p></td><td><p>$7.82</p></td><td><p>$10.69</p></td><td><p>$14.57</p></td><td><p>$19.83</p></td><td><p>$27.61</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Based on these forecasts, we can do a simple DCF model on five years&#39; worth of Tesla&#39;s earnings:</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p>TOTAL</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Cash flows</p></td><td><p>$7.82</p></td><td><p>$10.69</p></td><td><p>$14.57</p></td><td><p>$19.83</p></td><td><p>$27.61</p></td><td><p>N/A</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>(1+r)^n</p></td><td><p>1.083</p></td><td><p>1.172</p></td><td><p>1.27</p></td><td><p>1.375</p></td><td><p>1.489</p></td><td><p>N/A</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Discounted CF</p></td><td><p>$7.22</p></td><td><p>$9.12</p></td><td><p>$11.47</p></td><td><p>$14.42</p></td><td><p>$24.03</p></td><td><p>$66.26</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>So, our present value for 5 years’ worth of cash flows/EBIT is $66.26 per share. That’s not bad. The only step left is to find a terminal value for Tesla. I’ve assumed a discount rate of 8.3% for the purposes of this analysis. If Tesla’s earnings growth levels off to 4.5% after 5 years, then we get a terminal value of $759. So, we have approximately $66 in discounted cash flows, and a terminal value of $759. That leaves us with a fair value of $825.</p><h2>Why Tesla Eludes an Easy Valuation</h2><p>As I’ve showed, a basic DCF valuation would say that Tesla is worth $825–slightly more than it’s worth now. This valuation justifies a rating ranging from &#34;hold&#34; to a slight buy. That’s what we get with some reasonably conservative estimates of future growth. But before you buy TSLA based on this model, you need to consider some factors that could cause the stock to behave differently than expected.</p><p>One of these is accounting. Many analysts think that Tesla is aggressively recognizing and potentially overstating its revenue. Without fully endorsing this view, I can give plausible reasons someone would believe it.</p><p>For example, in fiscal 2021, Tesla reported $5.7 billion in inventory on hand. That was an increase of $1.7 billion from the same quarter a year before. The rate of growth in inventory accelerated as well: in the prior two years, inventory only grew in the hundreds of millions of dollars.</p><p>It could be that Tesla simply expects a lot more sales in 2022 and is holding inventory for that reason. However, some argue that Tesla simply isn’t selling as many cars as it claims it is. It is well known that Tesla collects cash for transactions that aren’t “sales.” We know, for example, that you can pre-order a Cybertruck, even though the truck isn’t being delivered. Under GAAP, you’re not supposed to count a payment as “revenue” until the product in question is delivered.</p><p>Could Tesla be bundling Cybertruck deposits with revenue to juice its sales numbers? Ultimately, we don’t know. Over the years, analysts have voiced many concerns with Tesla’s accounting. In addition to the one just mentioned, there have also been concerns about Tesla capitalizing inventory instead of expensing it, in order to boost its margins. If all of these things are going on, then Tesla’s revenue and profit are both being overstated. I do not claim that they are: there are other explanations for the peculiarities I noticed above. But, Tesla’s peculiar accounting is a risk factor to keep in mind.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>The bottom line on Tesla is this:</p><p>If we can indeed take its financial statements at face value, then its stock is probably worth at least $800. As my discounted cash flow valuation shows, you get to $825 just by assuming five years of strong growth followed by an eternity of sluggish growth. It’s possible that Tesla will not meet the growth figures I estimated for the five-year period, but on the flipside, it could easily continue growing for much more than five years. So, TSLA’s current stock price is not totally unreasonable – assuming its accounting can be trusted.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla - Fair Value Of $825</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla - Fair Value Of $825\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-11 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509786-tesla-fair-value-of-825","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234623829","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been a notoriously expensive stock for most of its history. It has traded well above 100 times sales in the past, today it trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Nobody doubts that Tesla has succeeded in becoming profitable, but still, some investors think the stock is overpriced. Tesla does trade at high multiples, but its growth is also very strong. In this article, I try to settle the Tesla valuation question with a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) model. Ultimately I arrive at a $825 valuation, giving it slight upside to today’s price. However, I rate the stock a hold rather than a buy, due to concerns about its accounting.Competitive LandscapeBefore getting into my analysis of Tesla’s fair value, I have to take a look at the company’s competitive position. In a few paragraphs, I will make a revenue growth estimate for Tesla that is above EV industry averages. A company needs a solid competitive position in order to out-grow its industry, so we need to establish Tesla does have a superior market position.Some of the companies Tesla competes with include:Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) - Second place in deliveries after Tesla, with 452,000 BEVs sold in 2021.BYD Motors (OTCPK:BYDDF) - Third place after Volkswagen, with 320,000 BEVs sold in 2021 (593,000 EVs total if you include hybrids).NIO (NIO) and Lucid Motors (LCID) - very small players but noteworthy for their “head to head” competition with Tesla. As luxury EV makers, they are playing the exact same game that Tesla is; VW and BYD ship different kinds of vehicles.Tesla is well ahead of the competition in pure-EV sedans. With 932,000 cars delivered in 2022, it sold more than double what VW did. Tesla’s dominance of the EV industry is lesser if you include trucks, trains and buses. By that standard, BYD, with 593,000 deliveries, is not too far behind Tesla.Can Tesla’s edge in electric cars continue?Right out of the gate, Tesla has an enormous competitive edge over its competitors in the form of free advertising. Elon Musk has one of the world’s biggest Twitter (TWTR) accounts, and he is in the process of “locking in” that advantage by buying Twitter. With 80 million Twitter followers, Musk can reach a lot of people without having to spend a penny on advertising. He uses this advantage to the fullest, getting free publicity through Tweets, TED talks and other unconventional channels. Generating “organic” publicity this way tends to produce superior margins, as it reduces the need for a marketing budget.It isn't easy to explain exactly how valuable Tesla's ability to market itself without paying money for advertising is, but a few points are worth keeping in mind:Tesla was named 2021's fastest growing brand by Visual Capitalist.Tesla was the world's fastest growing automaker in 2020.The company moved from 6th place to 3rd place in the list of world's most valuable automotive brands in 2022.... And all of this was achieved with no marketing budget to speak of! By contrast, Ford (F) spent $468 on marketing per each car sold in 2021.The advantage this provides Tesla is enormous. First of all, it empowers the company to spend way more money on R&D compared to the competition: at $2,984 per car sold, Tesla invests much more in research than the average car company. That can drive innovation over time.Second, this edge provides the potential for superior earnings growth. With lower costs come higher profits, and costs compound just like stock prices do. Below, you will see a model of two nearly identical companies, A and B, growing revenue by 30% and operating costs by 20%. The only difference is that company B has a marketing budget that starts at 10% of sales and grows by 40% per year. In the table below, you will see how much more profit company A has by the end of five years.Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Company A revenue1,0001,300169021972856Company A costs5006007208641036.8Company A profit50070097013331820Company B revenue1,0001,300169021972856Company B costs5006007208641036.8Company B marketing100140196274.4384Company B profit4005607741058.61436As you can see, company A ends up at $1,820 in profit after five years, while company B ends up at $1,612. Company A has a 29.48% CAGR growth rate in profit, while company B grows noticeably slower, at 29.12%. And, of course, Company A's profit is much higher at the end of the period.FinancialsBefore getting into my DCF model for Tesla, I have to explore its financials. It’s not enough to simply project a company’s earnings growth trend into the future, we need to look at the components that make up earnings to really gauge where profits are headed. In addition, we need to factor in variables that haven’t been reported yet but are known to be important, such as rising costs of raw materials.With that in mind, I’ve put together a table with Tesla’s most important earnings-related metrics for the last five years.20172018201920202021Revenue$11.75B$21.46B$24.57B$31.53B$53.8BCost of sales$9.53B$17.42B$20.51B$18.9B$40.2BOperating expenses$3.855B$4.430B$4.138B$4.636B$7BTotal costs$13.385B$21.85B$24.64B$23.56B$47.2BAdjusted EPS$-1.80$-0.27$0.03$2.24$6.78Based on the numbers above, we get growth rates of:36% CAGR in revenue.28% CAGR in costs.If historical trends were to continue into the future, we would expect growing profits. In my estimate, Tesla’s profits will in fact grow. However, we can’t just project past growth into the future. We need to know what factors are going to drive growth in revenue and costs going forward.Revenue is hard to predict because it depends on many factors: demand, supply chains, availability of raw materials and more. We could start from what industry experts are expecting for the market: Facts and Factors expects 24.5% CAGR growth in EVs to 2027. We also know that $53 billion is an enormous amount of revenue, which means that future revenue growth is unlikely to match that observed in the past. We would expect some deceleration. On the other hand, Tesla has advantages over other EV companies, such as brand recognition, a network of charging stations, and free social media advertising. So, we have reasons to expect deceleration, as well as reasons to think Tesla will outperform the industry. So, I’ll estimate Tesla’s future revenue growth at 30% CAGR–above the industry average but slower than Tesla in the past.Estimating Tesla’s costs is a bit easier. We know that car manufacturing is a high variable cost business and that costs increase with each car. So costs will correlate with revenue somewhat. Additionally we know that Tesla’s suppliers are charging it higher prices this year. So, I’ll estimate that total costs grow at 29% CAGR–essentially I’m expecting the past cost trend to continue but nudging it up 100 basis points to reflect this year’s supplier price hikes.The only step left before doing our earnings forecast is to convert the raw ingredients into per share amounts. In its most recent quarter, Tesla had 1.157 billion shares outstanding, so:The $53.8 billion in revenue turns into $46.49 per share.The $47.2 billion in costs turns into $40.79 per share.Starting with these amounts for the base year, we get (on a per share basis):base20222023202420252026REV$46.49$60.43$78.56$102.13$132.78$172.61COST$40.79$52.61$67.87$87.56$112.95$145EBIT$5.7$7.82$10.69$14.57$19.83$27.61Based on these forecasts, we can do a simple DCF model on five years' worth of Tesla's earnings:TOTALCash flows$7.82$10.69$14.57$19.83$27.61N/A(1+r)^n1.0831.1721.271.3751.489N/ADiscounted CF$7.22$9.12$11.47$14.42$24.03$66.26So, our present value for 5 years’ worth of cash flows/EBIT is $66.26 per share. That’s not bad. The only step left is to find a terminal value for Tesla. I’ve assumed a discount rate of 8.3% for the purposes of this analysis. If Tesla’s earnings growth levels off to 4.5% after 5 years, then we get a terminal value of $759. So, we have approximately $66 in discounted cash flows, and a terminal value of $759. That leaves us with a fair value of $825.Why Tesla Eludes an Easy ValuationAs I’ve showed, a basic DCF valuation would say that Tesla is worth $825–slightly more than it’s worth now. This valuation justifies a rating ranging from \"hold\" to a slight buy. That’s what we get with some reasonably conservative estimates of future growth. But before you buy TSLA based on this model, you need to consider some factors that could cause the stock to behave differently than expected.One of these is accounting. Many analysts think that Tesla is aggressively recognizing and potentially overstating its revenue. Without fully endorsing this view, I can give plausible reasons someone would believe it.For example, in fiscal 2021, Tesla reported $5.7 billion in inventory on hand. That was an increase of $1.7 billion from the same quarter a year before. The rate of growth in inventory accelerated as well: in the prior two years, inventory only grew in the hundreds of millions of dollars.It could be that Tesla simply expects a lot more sales in 2022 and is holding inventory for that reason. However, some argue that Tesla simply isn’t selling as many cars as it claims it is. It is well known that Tesla collects cash for transactions that aren’t “sales.” We know, for example, that you can pre-order a Cybertruck, even though the truck isn’t being delivered. Under GAAP, you’re not supposed to count a payment as “revenue” until the product in question is delivered.Could Tesla be bundling Cybertruck deposits with revenue to juice its sales numbers? Ultimately, we don’t know. Over the years, analysts have voiced many concerns with Tesla’s accounting. In addition to the one just mentioned, there have also been concerns about Tesla capitalizing inventory instead of expensing it, in order to boost its margins. If all of these things are going on, then Tesla’s revenue and profit are both being overstated. I do not claim that they are: there are other explanations for the peculiarities I noticed above. But, Tesla’s peculiar accounting is a risk factor to keep in mind.The Bottom LineThe bottom line on Tesla is this:If we can indeed take its financial statements at face value, then its stock is probably worth at least $800. As my discounted cash flow valuation shows, you get to $825 just by assuming five years of strong growth followed by an eternity of sluggish growth. It’s possible that Tesla will not meet the growth figures I estimated for the five-year period, but on the flipside, it could easily continue growing for much more than five years. So, TSLA’s current stock price is not totally unreasonable – assuming its accounting can be trusted.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}