Buy TQQQ For More Tech Stock Upside Into 2024

Seeking Alpha2023-12-19

The secular bull market for U.S. equities continues to show unrelenting buying, with all-time highs in sight.ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF has seen success in providing targeted, leveraged exposure to ...

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Comments

FattAgain69
2023-12-19
FattAgain69
Nasdaq now in overbought region after the recent long run up. Wait for retracement before diving into TQQQ. Or simply buy QQQ.
Asphen
2023-12-19
Asphen
Not a good moment to buy this now
- PhoenixBeeReplyAsphen:
  Exactly
- Asphen:
  some still got room to go. but not the time or level to go long.
- PhoenixBee:
  I see most stocks bullish and overvalue.

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I've been bullish for a long time, and that bullishness has proven a good place to be, but it certainly wasn't without its trials given we had about three months of sustained selling. With the breakout achieved several weeks ago, however, and with all-time highs in sight, I'm looking for even more in 2024.One way that I've seen success in being on the bullish side of equities is with targeted, leveraged exposure to big tech stocks through the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:TQQQ). The fund has been absolutely on fire, and while we're overbought, I think the most we'll get is some consolidation or perhaps slight selling before we take off higher again into January. Let's dig in.TQQQ to keep flyingAs a reminder, TQQQ seeks 3X the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100 index, which is largely equivalent to the extremely popular QQQ ETF. It's 3x the daily return, so there's some churn and chop when the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is flat, but TQQQ does a great job of capturing returns during extremely bullish periods.Fund websiteThis fund is not for value investors. If buying beaten down stocks at 8X forward earnings is your thing, this isn't for you. The average P/E ratio for the NASDAQ 100-Index (NDX), according to the fund literature above, is almost 33. These are growth-oriented equities that tend to be volatile, and the fund isn't diversified. Those characteristics create more risk, but higher reward potential as well. Please fully understand the risks of leveraged ETFs from such factors as volatility drift that may result in losing significant amounts of principal as spelled out here before placing any trades.I last covered TQQQ in June, and since then, despite the fact that we had three months of continued selling, the fund is still up 35% against 10% for the S&P 500. It's also up 130% since I recommended it in January. There is obviously increased risk in owning leveraged funds, but the rewards are potentially enormous.TQQQ is nowhere near its all-time high despite the fact that the QQQ is, and that's due to leverage. During sustained bear markets, leveraged funds get absolutely destroyed, so you have to be careful about when you employ these leveraged funds. It is my opinion that this bull is nowhere near done roaring, so I'm sticking with my TQQQ call.StockChartsThe daily price chart shows the channel we had from July to October, the subsequent breakout, and the absolutely massive move that was put in after the breakout. The moving averages are flying and should serve as support - as the 20-day exponential moving average did in early December.We're very overbought right now, so despite the fact that late December is extremely bullish historically, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little breather before we get to a further rally in January.There's also support at the former high of ~$47, so any pullback has two chances to be bought quickly; that breakout area of $47, and the rising 20-day EMA, which is currently $45 but moving higher quickly. I doubt we'll see any price lower than the 20-day EMA anytime soon, so that's where I'm drawing my line in the sand. That fits my own personal risk tolerance, but that's something each person must choose for themselves.Speaking of January, below we have the past five years of seasonality data, and January is generally very bullish for tech stocks and therefore, the TQQQ.StockChartsJanuary's average return for the past five January periods is a staggering 8.3%, and while it's not the best month for TQQQ, it is quite good. February is an entirely different story, but that's a discussion for another day; right now, TQQQ is set up in my view for a continued run higher. So long as the 20-day EMA holds, I see nothing that will derail this current rally for the foreseeable future, and TQQQ is certainly one way to take advantage.Know what you ownA key to owning any fund is to really understand what the fund contains. The language that describes any fund is a good place to start, but that's high-level stuff. If you really want to know what you're buying, look at the fund's exposures. Below, we have TQQQ's top exposures, and we can see this fund is far from a simple holder of stock.Fund websiteWe can see the largest actual stock position is Apple Inc. (AAPL), but it's only 3% of the fund. Most of TQQQ consists of billions of dollars of Treasury bills (not pictured), as well as swaps and futures on the NASDAQ 100-Index. That's how TQQQ gains leverage on the performance of the index, not through owning the actual stocks (for the most part). This structure is much more complex than a traditional buy-and-hold index fund, so just something to keep in mind as you're considering your own personal risk tolerance.The bottom line here is that as long as you think a bull market in tech stocks is going to persist, there are few better ways to gain exposure to that than the TQQQ. It's been a monster performer this year, and while I don't think we're going to see another doubling next year, I do think we've got sufficiently strong upside potential remaining. I'm sticking with my buy call on TQQQ, but note that at some point, we are going to work through the tremendously overbought conditions we have today.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":253722610876608,"gmtCreate":1702963036554,"gmtModify":1702963041449,"author":{"id":"4107015407846850","authorId":"4107015407846850","name":"FattAgain69","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4e3d511c15de9227ee9ebca3021f903","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107015407846850","authorIdStr":"4107015407846850"},"htmlText":"Nasdaq now in overbought region after the recent long run up. Wait for retracement before diving into TQQQ. Or simply buy QQQ.","listText":"Nasdaq now in overbought region after the recent long run up. Wait for retracement before diving into TQQQ. Or simply buy QQQ.","text":"Nasdaq now in overbought region after the recent long run up. Wait for retracement before diving into TQQQ. Or simply buy QQQ.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/253722610876608","repostId":2392990451,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":253700156571864,"gmtCreate":1702957555130,"gmtModify":1702957559700,"author":{"id":"3576339097425722","authorId":"3576339097425722","name":"Asphen","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ff1b64b2787933c17d863ecae83f09","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576339097425722","authorIdStr":"3576339097425722"},"htmlText":"Not a good moment to buy this now","listText":"Not a good moment to buy this now","text":"Not a good moment to buy this now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/253700156571864","repostId":2392990451,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":253704998179080,"gmtCreate":1702958875827,"gmtModify":1702958881980,"authorId":3570058765891495,"author":{"id":3570058765891495,"idStr":"3570058765891495","authorId":3570058765891495,"name":"PhoenixBee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7bfa4323a9a5dfacc73c8817a4e5e48","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons 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Top Contributor","description":"Contributors with best Editor's Picks every week","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271475ceaf67d40016c8cfa16c08c8b3","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a6336061b9ba82ba9177c7ec476f5f2","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":2,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.08","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2004},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":253700156571864,"type":1,"supId":253703655137344,"prevId":0,"content":"some still got room to go. but not the time or level to go long.","text":"some still got room to go. but not the time or level to go long.","html":"some still got room to go. but not the time or level to go long."},{"id":253703655137344,"gmtCreate":1702958392081,"gmtModify":1702958399853,"authorId":3570058765891495,"author":{"id":3570058765891495,"idStr":"3570058765891495","authorId":3570058765891495,"name":"PhoenixBee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7bfa4323a9a5dfacc73c8817a4e5e48","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.19","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":253700156571864,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I see most stocks bullish and <u>over</u>value.","text":"I see most stocks bullish and <u>over</u>value.","html":"I see most stocks bullish and <u>over</u>value."}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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