Palantir: This Is Just The Beginning

seekingalpha02-08

Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. ...

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Comments

Pinkspider
02-09
Pinkspider
Buy buy buy !!! Overbought .. slight pullback will be healthy.. let's see
LateWizard
02-08
LateWizard
🫠🙈
kckckckckkck
02-08
kckckckckkck
Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously

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P","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"translate_title":"帕兰蒂尔：这只是开始","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1.1},"content_text":"Palantir had a strong end to FY23, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% for q4'23 and 44% for FY23.Gartner forecasts 13.8% y/y growth in IT spend for 2024 with a primary focus in cost-reducing projects. Palantir's products may be that solution.Palantir's AI capabilities and AIP bootcamps are driving sales and attracting new customers, with high-value deals expected to continue.Writing that Palantir had an extraordinary end to FY23 would be an understatement. Investor sentiment shifted strongly since I wrote my initial bullish investment thesis back on December 16, 2023. The recent earnings announcement caused the stock to jump over 40% in the next two trading days. I’ll admit, I was beginning to think my thesis was drastically off for over the course of the next month and a half as the shares traded down -12% from publication to Q4’23 earnings. With this new growth trajectory and accelerated interest in AI at the corporate level, I am maintaining my BUY recommendation and increasing my forecast and price target to $30.70/share based on 22.89x my eFY25 sales forecast.OperationsPalantir finished FY23 on a high note, with commercial customers growing by 55% y/y in Q4’23 and 12% sequentially. This translated to a 70% increase in commercial revenue for the quarter from the previous year. TCV booked $1.15b, $699mm of which derived from commercial customers, growing on a y/y basis by 192% and 156%, respectively. Palantir also experienced strong growth in both top line and margins, surpassing the Rule of 40 at 54% when using Q4’23 revenue growth and adjusted operating income.Corporate ReportsAs discerned below, I believe management’s guidance may be coming in more conservative as AI takes shape.Corporate ReportsI believe one of the strengths that Palantir found in the last few quarters was within their AIP bootcamps. Rather than a sales call cycle, the firm is actively showcasing their AIP features in these masterclasses to show how effective their products are in the business environment. This has proven highly successful in not only cross-selling across their current customer base, but also expanding and attracting new customers. I believe that as Generative AI has been the topic of conversation for the last year and continues to be so, interest in Palantir’s AI-oriented offerings will accelerate and drive the sales conversion cycle. Though it may be far reaching to equate their over 500 AIP bootcamps to their 35% y/y increase in new customers, I believe that there may be some correlation between the two.Palantir closed 103 deals valued at over $1mm in Q4’23, with 37 of those deals over $5mm, and 21 over $10mm. I anticipate these high-value deals to continue to flow to Palantir as the firm showcases their AI capabilities and allows their potential customers to fully grasp the capabilities in their one-on-one demonstration approach. Management came in very bold with their approach, citing:I go around the country now telling CEOs, CTOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy our product and transform their enterprise, take everything you've done in AI since you started, put your best people on it, and we're going to show up at any time you want, and we're going to run your data at a bootcamp for 10 hours. And then, you compare your self-pleasuring to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable, critical-to-your-enterprise results. Our 10 hours, your 10 months. Any products you want, any vendor you want, any hyperscaler you want, you pick them, we'll show up.Alex Karp, CEO, PalantirThere also remains a huge opportunity in the public sector as management mentioned that the Army’s budget for their command and control software is only 0.015% of hardware and software spend.The principal reason is that the DoD is at the very beginning of a long-term allocation shift from hardware to software. For example, the Army is spending a mere 0.015% of its budget on command and control software in fiscal year '24. But as we confront crisis and conflict in three theaters, this is changing. Growth is being driven by the incredible dynamism of the US commercial market, and US government will follow.Shyam Sankar, CTO PalantirThough I wouldn’t bet the farm on an overnight success in government contracts, I do believe that this will be a slow grower for the firm and accumulate value over a long period of time. At the risk of overstepping my analyst duties, I do believe that if any of these global skirmishes were to escalate to further involve the US, DoD investments in Palantir’s capabilities may be pulled forward. As management had alluded to in the Q4’23 earnings call, China may further become a threat as their economic growth engine stalls.One growth headwind that the firm faces, which I don’t believe to be as big of a challenge given the customer interest behind Palantir’s software, is that their salesforce is lagging behind their growth. Management spent a significant portion of the q4’23 earnings call discussing their recruitment process and that the firm is actively seeking to strengthen their headcount as the company’s profitability scales. Though this isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have, it can potentially create some challenges in customer relations and making sure each customer receives the appropriate attention to ensure retention and maximize cross-selling. Though I do not anticipate this to have a negative impact on the firm’s growth potential, I do anticipate that adding the additional headcount can reel in margins from their recent high. Taking management’s guidance for eFY24, Palantir’s adjusted operating margin is expected to taper from the Q4’23 high of 34% to 32% in eQ1’24 and in the range of 31-32% for eFY24, which remains well above the FY23 adjusted operating margin of 27%.In building a case for Palantir’s growth, I believe looking at the AI-enabling chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) as a guide from a hardware perspective can discern some intel on how the software portion of AI will react. Though I do not anticipate this to be a 1-for-1 equation, I do believe that there is some relation in which hardware is only as useful as the software that’s running on these high-performance chips. Management anticipates 17% top-line growth for Q1’24, which I believe is a very modest estimate.Corporate ReportsAs the firm grows and scales operations, I anticipate revenue growth to outpace any contractionary effects to margins as a result of scaling staff and infrastructure. I believe that Palantir has a huge opportunity and has only scratched the surface in scaling their AIP tool and I believe that as the firm continues to aggressively bring forward the product in their AIP bootcamps, I expect firms to latch onto its capabilities. Gartner forecasted 8% total IT spending growth with 13.8% growth in software alone for CY24. Their survey suggested that IT spend will primarily focus in cost-reducing technologies. As Palantir’s management had alluded to in their Q4’23 earnings call, AIP does just that.GartnerI anticipate a much higher concentration in IT spend being allocated to AI-enabling technologies. Contrary to the company Snowflake (SNOW) that I covered on January 30, 2024, Palantir’s software provides actionable capabilities for creating operational efficiencies. Snowflake, on the other hand, provides the database and a set of data analytic tools to be hosted in a hyperscaler environment for LLM analysis. Each software package brings forth its own merits; however, Palantir’s software package is more of an enabler vs. just a toolbox.Valuation & Shareholder ValueCorporate ReportsPLTR currently trades at 23.17x FY23 sales, a slight premium to the firm’s competitors. Given my expectations for Palantir’s growth trajectory into eFY24 and eFY25, I anticipate significant upside for PLTR shares. Forecasting out to eFY25, I provide PLTR shares a BUY recommendation with a price target of $30.70/share at 22.89x eFY25 sales.Corporate ReportsReviewing my previous technical chart, PLTR shares moved exactly as expected. Looking ahead to my $30.70/share price target, I anticipate a continued near-term run-up before a slight pullback to $21.59/share before moving up to my ultimate target. I believe that any pullback in shares will be a great buying opportunity as I anticipate this stock to appreciate by 40%.TradingView","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":271854564790464,"gmtCreate":1707408685223,"gmtModify":1707408690275,"author":{"id":"3563842318594455","authorId":"3563842318594455","name":"Pinkspider","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2643891549304031c32c05b207f0f2b6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563842318594455","authorIdStr":"3563842318594455"},"htmlText":"Buy buy buy !!! Overbought .. slight pullback will be healthy.. let's see","listText":"Buy buy buy !!! Overbought .. slight pullback will be healthy.. let's see","text":"Buy buy buy !!! Overbought .. slight pullback will be healthy.. let's see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271854564790464","repostId":2409204850,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":271728044445984,"gmtCreate":1707377651019,"gmtModify":1707377655720,"author":{"id":"3576797853255359","authorId":"3576797853255359","name":"LateWizard","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2623f0ebfedf9dedaf6b68dc8fe2f4b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576797853255359","authorIdStr":"3576797853255359"},"htmlText":"🫠🙈","listText":"🫠🙈","text":"🫠🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271728044445984","repostId":2409204850,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":271680688353560,"gmtCreate":1707366088561,"gmtModify":1707366093270,"author":{"id":"3560390573137204","authorId":"3560390573137204","name":"kckckckckkck","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6896c548de35bc7bdb6cd82d0cba4b85","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560390573137204","authorIdStr":"3560390573137204"},"htmlText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","listText":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","text":"Such bullish sentiments typically means local top is near. Just joking dont take it too seriously","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271680688353560","repostId":2409204850,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":16,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2409204850"}