Tesla stock fell after the company reported third-quarter deliveries. Numbers were fine though. Now investors can move on to a more important issue.
It isn't Robotaxi Day. Profit margins will mean more for shares in the coming weeks than even self-diving cabs -- which are still a long way down the road.
Wednesday, Tesla handed over 462,890 vehicles in the three months to Sept. 30, up 6.4% from the preceding quarter. Wall Street on average had expected the Elon Musk-led company to deliver 469,828 vehicles, still Tesla stock dropped 3.5%.
Despite the drop, Wall Street was fine with the result. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it a "good step in the right direction." Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas expected closer to 470,000 units but called the difference with reported results a rounding error. "It was right in line with our expectations," added Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner.
Investors might have hoped for a delivery number closer to 470,000, but the stock mostly likely fell simply because it was up. Those rising expectations drove shares up more than 20% in the month leading into the report.
Now, "what matters the most for me is the margin trajectory," Rosner told Barron's. He wants to see stable margins despite higher levels of industry price competition. Stable profit margins are a "prerequisite for investors to be willing to play the robotaxi angle...you need the core business to have stabilized."
Stability has eluded EV investors in 2024. Solid third-quarter numbers left Tesla's year-to-date numbers down about 2% compared with 2023.
Selling cars has been harder lately. In the U.S., August incentives offered to buyers worked out to about 7.2% of transaction prices, up almost 50% year over year, according to data provider Kelly Blue Book. Incentives for EVs worked out to about 13.3% of the transaction price, up more than 60% year over year. Chinese auto makers have been hiking incentives too, according to Citi analyst Jeff Chung.
Lower pricing and deals have the potential to shave profit margins. But Tesla selling more cars and managing costs can preserve them.
For Tesla, Wall Street expects third-quarter automotive gross profits, excluding the impact of regulatory credit sales, of about 15%, flat with the second quarter of 2024. Automotive gross profit margins peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at about 30%.
Beating third-quarter profit margin estimates would boost investor confidence that Tesla's positive business momentum can be maintained.
Eventually, business momentum can turn into higher bottom-line estimates. Wall Street currently projects Tesla will earn about $3.20 a share in 2025. A year ago, that estimate was closer to $5.60 a share. Estimates haven't started to rise again, but they aren't falling any longer. That's been enough to boost the stock lately. Higher estimates might be required to boost the stock in 2025.
Tesla stock was falling 1.4% in premarket trading at $245.45. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both down 0.4% .
Coming into Thursday trading, Tesla stock was essentially flat year to date. Shares, however, were up almost 80% from lows reached in mid-April.
Tesla's earnings report comes in a couple of weeks. Before that, the company hosts its highly anticipated Robotaxi Day on Oct. 10. That event is another thing impacting shares. Investors want to see Tesla unveil a physical robotaxi, review gains made it its self-driving tech, outline plans to launch service, and explain how it plans to make money from a robotaxi business.
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