Let me tell you a story first. Once, Pete and Tony traveled in Siberian forest and came across a bear. So Tony quickly took out his running shoes and put them on, ready to run away. Pete was puzzled. "Can you run past a bear?"
Tony said as he ran. "I can only run past you."
Let's look at a set of data in Europe todayEurozone manufacturing PMI for May was 44.6, falling short of the expected 46, compared with 45.8,It hit a 36-month low.
The initial PMI of service industry in the euro zone in May was 55.9, which was higher than the expected value of 55.5 and lower than the previous value of 56.2.It is a new low in the past two months;The initial comprehensive PMI of the euro zone in May was 53.3, which was lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 54.1.It is the lowest in the past three months.
Looking at the euro zone countries from another perspective, the initial manufacturing PMI of Germany in May was 42.9,It is the lowest since May 2020; France's manufacturing PMI46.1 in May slightly exceeded expectations(It seems that it was useful to talk about business last month.) The PMI for service industry and the PMI for neutralization fell short of expectations.
Let's first look at a set of data in the United States today: The United States announced the initial value of Markit service industry PMI in May of 55.1, the expected value of 52.5 and the previous value of 53.6.A 13-month high.
Markit manufacturing PMI is in the opposite direction of service industry, with an initial value of 48.5, an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 50.2.Hit a three-month low,Return to the bottom of threshold; Markit's comprehensive PMI initial value is 54.5, expected to be 53, and the previous value is 53.4.A 13-month high.
Back to the story at the beginning,If the crisis triggered by Russia and Ukraine last year was the bear, it is obvious that Tony is America and Pete is Europe. I know some of you will complain about the damage to the credit of the US dollar caused by the debt crisis, but in this bad old world, the United States only needs to run faster than Europe, so recently we have also seen the US Dollar Index stand firm at the 103 mark step by step.
From a technical point of view, the rebound space of the US Dollar Index's daily line level is not fully in place, the strong resistance above is located at 105.50-106, and the rebound of weekly line level is just beginning.
Just like I repeatedly emphasized one thing in the previous article: Never bet that there are no bullets in the Fed gun.
Brad, the biggest eagle king of the Federal Reserve, said that the Federal Reserve will have to raise its policy interest rate.Rate hike may need another 50 basis points this year, and rate hike is expected to do it twice this year.Core inflation measures have not changed much in recent months.
Although he does not have the right to vote this year, isn't this a kind of throwing stones at the Fed to ask for directions?
The US Dollar Index, it's better to just have a daily rally here.If it eventually evolves into a weekly rise, please be prepared Because it would be a disaster for other assets around the world.
I sincerely pray that such an asset disaster will not come.
Because last year was hard enough.
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Comments
However, the sell-off in stocks is a sign that investors are becoming more cautious. If the economy does slow down, it could lead to a further sell-off in stocks.
The dollar is also benefiting from the fact that the US economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace.
The dollar is benefiting from the sell-off in stocks. Investors are buying dollars as a safe haven asset.
It is too early to say whether the market is on the brink of collapse