Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca

I. Weekly Market Review: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ As of Friday (April 17th) in Asian trading, international gold has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a rise of approximately 18% since the rebound began at the 50-week moving average. The overall trend this week was one of initial rise followed by a pullback: Early Week High:Gold prices rebounded from a low of $4644.35, reaching a high of around $4890. Mid-Week Pullback: After rising above $4870 in Asian trading on Wednesday, prices faced resistance and retreated, giving back some of the gains. Gold prices were capped by the $4800 psychological level. High-Level Consolidati

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$On Thursday (April 16), spot gold prices held steady around $4,790 per ounce, nearly unchanged, after hitting a one-month high in the previous session. While US gold futures fell slightly by 0.3% to $4,808.30, the overall market sentiment has gradually recovered from the slump in March. This change is not an isolated event, but is closely linked to the dramatic turn of events in the Middle East—after the outbreak of the war between the US and Israel against Iran, gold prices were initially pressured by inflation concerns and tightening liquidity. However, President Trump's ceasefire declaration and positive signals from US-Iran peace negotiations are injecting strong momentum into the gold market. Inve

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Gold prices plunged on Wednesday (April 15), partly due to profit-taking by investors. Additionally, rising stock markets weakened safe-haven demand, and rising US Treasury yields contributed to the decline. Investors continued to assess the latest developments in the US and Iran, and their implications for the interest rate outlook. In early Asian trading on April 16, gold prices fluctuated upwards, reaching a high of around $4837.5, and are currently trading around $4820. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 2 On Thursday (April 16) in Asian trading, despite ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices rose significantly as renewed efforts to resolve th

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec