My $Apple(AAPL)$
Optimism Abound
I am optimistic after watching the introduction by Apple on the new Vision Pro. If widely adopted, it seeks to consume the movie, streaming, hardware (think no more TVs) and gaming scene, plus totally render mobile phone obsolete on a long run. The price of $3,499 USD is indeed a premium but hey, this is Apple that we are talking about. Having the pricing power is good for a shareholder like me.
The ability to watch shows, do 3D filming, interact with people via AR VR is something previously only imaginable via the moviea. Plus no hand held devices!
On the numbers front, Apple's FCF (Free Cash Flow) has been doing well on a long run of 3-10 years. Short time wise, more magic is needed.
The number of shareholders and employees have also been growing consistently on a year by year basis.
Analysts are optimisting, looking for more buy recommendations and there seems to be more upside on the relative opinion of analysts.
The Flip side
However being investors, we must always consider multiple aspects and from different fronts. Here are some things that I picked up also.
Apple has a horrible debt level and if it wasn't Apple, I wouldn't touch such a company. It's cash ratio is 0.47 and that spells trouble if investors or banks were to pull the plug.
Aside, Vision Pro is not likely to have much significant impact on Apple's revenue streams. 0.21% would hardly make dent. Granted, Vision Pro seems more like a long term moonshot attempt at self disruption.
Insiders have been selling and it could be for their own profit purposes. Not too encouraging if you see a whole string of people selling and not buying.
Aside, doing my own research on valuation using different tools yielded valuations from -20% overvalued to about 10% undervalued to fairly valued.
So how?
I might consider selling a small portion of my Apple shares to minimise my risk of overexposure. Since I have Apple via BRK, S&P and QQQM as well.
If I am right, I take some profit and buy in again at a lower level.
If I am wrong, which I can be, I have taken some profit and averaged up. But ultimately I would be able to sleep better by reducing my risk.
My current assessment is that Apple is around fair value now. If you believe the bill case is stronger, you might want to get more shares and hold. However if you think the bear will come out soon, consider reducing your risk by selling some Apple. Another day to buy will come.
What do you think?
Time to sell, buy or hold?
Keen to learn from you. Press "like" if you've learnt something and do share with me your thoughts. [Grin]
Meanwhile, if you understand this meme, you are as "young" as me.
@TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger @Bonta @daz88888888 @RDPD富爸穷爸 @LMSunshine @GoodLife99 @melson @SirBahamut
Comments
I believe that $200+ will come sooner than most expect, also I don’t write off any months, APPLE will always surprise you from a positive perspective.
Thst stock 12 month trailing PE is 230. A 1trillion sized company with a 230 multiple. Earnings need to increase 8x to get a decent multiple. 8x!! That’s FOMO insanity at work.
Apple will split the stock shares if needed to keep the price in range that will keep the stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average — the DJIA is a price-weighted average, so stocks with too high or too low of a share price run the risk of being removed from the index.
PARA will skyrocket and AAPL will drop Just the way it works , Why PARA because PARA controls a lot of sports and AAPL can take what they want and spin off the junk so they have Growth again and help them sell even more hardware
It's too bad Apple missed out financially on the early A.I. hype but not every company can adapt to change quickly enough. That's the breaks.