Weekly: Market Pullback Healthy So Far, Russia Insurrection Over, What To Expect This Week

1. MAJOR INDEXES RETURNS

• The major U.S. stock indexes each fell more than 1%, breaking strings of eight consecutive weekly gains for the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , five for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , and three for the $DJIA(.DJI)$ . Concerns about further interest-rate hikes and a slowing global economy weighed on stocks.

• The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed at 13.4 on Friday—just above its level before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and down 33% from a recent high on May 24.

• As of Friday, both the$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ and $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ lost 2.1% weekly.

• Tiger Comments: The stock market rally appears to be in a healthy, normal pullback, with relatively modest losses. But it could grow more intense. Also, you don't know how individual stocks and sectors will hold up. Investors generally should be holding steady, waiting for signs that the pullback is ending. Look for stocks that are respecting key levels and showing improving relative strength. If you feel compelled to trade now, be ready to jump back out.

2. SECTORS AND STOCKS OF $S&P 500(.SPX)$

• On last week, all the sectors dropped with real estate sector top the pull back of 4.4%, and the basic materials sector, technology sector and energy sector see dip over 3%.

• The stock market rally retreated last week, with a long-awaited pullback taking hold. The selling has been orderly for the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ held their ground or marched higher, while $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ regained a key level by Friday's close. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ retreated modestly.

• The top 10 winners of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are $CarMax(KMX)$, $Generac(GNRC)$, $Merck(MRK)$, $Dollar General(DG)$ , $D.R. Horton(DHI)$ , $Henry Schein(HSIC)$ , $McKesson(MCK)$, $Dollar Tree(DLTR)$ , $NVR Inc(NVR)$ , $Progressive(PGR)$

  

  3. MACRO FACTORS AND OTHER ASSETS

  • Inflation’s persistence: In testimony before Congress, U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there’s still “a long way to go” in the Fed’s campaign to reduce inflation, and further interest-rate increases are likely to be needed in coming months. After keeping rates unchanged at its last meeting, the Fed will consider whether to resume rate hikes at its July 25–26 session.  

  •  $WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ fell nearly 4% for the week: Anxiety about economic growth prospects and energy demand weighed on prices of crude oilk. U.S. crude fell below $70 per barrel on Thursday, and Friday’s price of around $69 was down almost 17% from a high recent high on April 12.

  • Bitcoin resurgence: The price of Bitcoin, the most widely traded cryptocurrency, surged nearly 18% for the week to around $31,000 on Friday. Although Bitcoin was trading at less than half of its record high of nearly $69,000 set in November 2021, the price had risen nearly 90% year to date as of Friday.  

  • Price check ahead: A report scheduled to be released on Friday will show whether a recent slight monthly rise in U.S. inflation extended into May, as measured by the U.S. Fed’s preferred gauge for tracking prices. The most recent report showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose at a 4.4% annual rate in April, up from 4.2% in March—a reversal of the downward trend in the prior months.

  • Russia Insurrection Over: A brief insurrection by Russian mercenaries abruptly ended, with a deal between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin will leave for Belarus while Putin will drop charges vs. him and his Wagner private army.

  4. THE WEEK AHEAD : Jun 26-30

  Monday

  • No major reports scheduled   

  Tuesday

  • S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index

  • Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board

  • Durable goods orders,  U.S. Census Bureau

  • New home sales, U.S. Census Bureau 

  Wednesday

  • No major reports scheduled 

  Thursday

  • First-quarter GDP, third estimate, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  • Pending home sales, National Association of Realtors

  • Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor

  Friday

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index,  U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  • Personal income and spending, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  • University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment 

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  How is your trading plan in this week？

  Any special focus？

  Please share with Tigers