Good evening, everyone. I’ve organized the key takeaways from the March 19 session into a written recap that can be read directly, so anyone who missed the livestream can catch up and review the discussion.You can follow along with my class notes to see how Mr. Gan analyzed the market.Mr. Gan focused on the crude oil market, related financial instruments, and trading strategy. He discussed the impact of the Iran nuclear talks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade on oil prices, while also looking at the trading opportunities and broader market trends created by higher oil prices. The main points are as follows:Course Review ：Gold & Silver Tumbled: W

Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath

Global financial markets have recently grown increasingly complex, and it is evident that market capital is currently undergoing a drastic risk repricing. Against this backdrop, both commodities and equity markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion, struggling to sustain their recent trajectories. Crude oil may be facing fading upward momentum, while US equities—battered by capital outflows and suppressed by rising yields—appear vulnerable to further weakness at any moment.​ Short Bets Intensify on US Equities Institutional trading desk data reveals that the selling pressure on US equities is not to be underestimated. Goldman Sachs' Prime Book data flashes a distinctively negative signal: US equities have faced sell-offs for the fourth consecutive week. More alarmingly, hedge funds are not

In the market, numbers tell the story, but human nature writes the script. If you’re feeling a bit lost in the current market noise, let’s take a step back and look at three legendary tales that define exactly where we are today. Whether it’s the surging energy prices or the AI hype train, these three stories are the ultimate survival guide for your portfolio. Story 1: The Ghost of $147 Oil Flashback to 2008. Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ prices were vertical, hitting an eye-watering $147 per barrel. Analysts were calling for $200, and everyone was piling into energy stocks like there was no tomorrow. A few months later, the floor fell out. Oil crashed to $40. Those who chased the peak (FOMO) were left holding bags that took a decade

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

The geopolitical risk premium has just been re-priced for the AI era. On March 11, Iran’s state media and the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency published a chilling manifesto titled "Iran’s New Targets." The document explicitly lists the facilities of Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi as legitimate military targets. Tehran has framed this as a retaliatory strike against the "infrastructure conflict" initiated by U.S.-Israeli cyberattacks on Iranian financial systems. The Disappearing Cash Flow: Where Is Big Tech’s Money Going? The market is witnessing something extremely rare: free cash flow (FCF) at tech giants is turning negative. This has barely happened over the past few decades. Many retail investors see this as bearish

By the 11th day of the U.S.–Iran war, markets have gone through extreme turbulence. WTI crude futures have surged in the short term from 80 dollars—a level many traders saw as a point to close positions—to nearly 120 dollars, and then, within just one day, plunged sharply back down to around 83. U.S. equity indices also tumbled quickly when the war escalated, only to stage a broad-based rebound afterward. At this point, many investors are likely asking themselves: how should we position our portfolios now? What opportunities in the market are still worth our close attention? To figure out what opportunities in the market are really worth seizing right now, we first need to understand the macro logic that is driving current volatility. Let’s take a look at the macro transmission chain we’re

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ posted its biggest single-session move in years. $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2605(BZmain)$ is now near $110/bbl — up over 70% vs Q4 2025 average. Most retail traders rushed into oil ETFs. Goldman Sachs quietly dropped a note this morning suggesting that's the wrong trade. Hormuz Disruption: 17x Larger Than the Russia Shock of 2022 The Strait of Hormuz — carrying roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply — is effectively shut. Goldman Sachs estimates the total hit to Persian Gulf flows at 17mb/d, a disruption 17 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production. Pipeline alternatives via Saudi Arabia and UAE can theoretically redirect up to

On March 9th, the international oil price soared sharply against the background of further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. The market's worries about the blockage of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East rose rapidly, pushing Brent crude oil to rise to $119.50/barrel once.$WTI Crude Oil Main 2604 (CLmain) $Simultaneous surge. At the same time, Iraq's crude oil production has dropped sharply, and the G7 has also begun to discuss the joint release of emergency oil reserves, indicating that the current crude oil market has entered a stage of high risk and high volatility. Corresponding to USO, although the short-term trend is still strong, the price has risen significantly,

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

The current market landscape is heavily influenced by the sudden escalation of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran as of early March 2026. After a period of oversupply in late 2025, the "war premium" has returned aggressively. Can Crude Oil Cross the $100 Mark? Yes, it is a distinct possibility. While Brent crude is currently trading in the $81–$84 range (up nearly 20% since January), analysts from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wood Mackenzie suggest $100 is the next major psychological and technical resistance level. The path to $100 depends on two primary factors: The Strait of Hormuz: This is the ultimate "black swan" trigger. Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. Iran has already issued warnings to shipping, and any confirmed blockad