WTI Crude Oil - main 2610 (CLmain)

Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?

09-03 16:28

Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

Macro Strategy Weekly: VIX Seasonal Spike Incoming，Top Strategy for Choppy Markets

09-02 11:02

Macro Strategy Weekly: VIX Seasonal Spike Incoming，Top Strategy for Choppy Markets

Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem

Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?

08-31

Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?

Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%

Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market

08-28

Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and

U.S. Equity Technicals Turn Bearish? Several Opportunities Worth Watching (Recent Yield Sharing)

08-24

U.S. Equity Technicals Turn Bearish? Several Opportunities Worth Watching (Recent Yield Sharing)

The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie

Treasury’s Large-Scale Rescue May Not Be Good？ Be Cautious Chasing Gold Higher

08-24

Treasury’s Large-Scale Rescue May Not Be Good？ Be Cautious Chasing Gold Higher

While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo

Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums

08-20

Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Owen_trading room

08-19

High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market

The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe

High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market

Are Asset Rebounds Near an End? How to Trade Bitcoin and Gold’s Key Levels

08-17

Are Asset Rebounds Near an End? How to Trade Bitcoin and Gold’s Key Levels

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

Why I Think Gold Is the Biggest Opportunity Right Now: The Most Critical Price Levels to Watch!

08-10

Why I Think Gold Is the Biggest Opportunity Right Now: The Most Critical Price Levels to Watch!

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge. To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout. In the spot market, the key resi

Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹

08-05

Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally

08-03

Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally

The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r

Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?

08-03

Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?

The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve

Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply

07-30

Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

Owen_trading room

07-29

Three Strategies for Today’s Market: Capitalize on This Week’s FOMC Volatility

This week's price action in U.S. equities is critical for the market trend over the next several weeks — above all the FOMC decision due early Thursday Beijing time. The U.S. indices have arrived at a very important support level, and once a key variable pushes them into choosing a direction, the broader medium-term trend could change. The current calm may therefore be brewing sharp volatility in the back half of the week. First, the latest developments on the technical side As you can see, the Nasdaq has now reached a very critical level. On the head-and-shoulders top pattern, the formation can already be treated as a breakdown of the head structure; by conventional technical projection, the subsequent downside would theoretically be roughly equal to the distance from the head to the curr

Three Strategies for Today’s Market: Capitalize on This Week’s FOMC Volatility

Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat

07-28

Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options

07-27

Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options

Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in