Since mid-March, international crude oil prices have experienced a rebound. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose from $65.6 per barrel on March 10 to $69.37 per barrel by March 25, an increase of about 5.7%. Similarly, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose from $68.65 per barrel to $72.54 per barrel during the same period.This price rally is driven by supply-side disruptions, including geopolitical crises and U.S. sanctions, which have led to downward revisions in crude oil production forecasts for 2025. OPEC+'s implementation of compensatory production cuts has eased concerns about oversupply. However, factors such as China’s shift to new energy vehicles and reduced oil demand in the U.S. due to tariffs and fiscal tightening make it unlikely that crude oil will break away from its oversupply trend

At the latest Federal Reserve meeting last week, policymakers unsurprisingly chose to maintain the status quo on interest rates. The relatively dovish tone of the communication improved market sentiment slightly, yet significant uncertainty remains over the future trajectory of monetary policy. Opinions are split: some believe that former President Trump's anti-globalization policies might lead to inflation or stagflation, preventing the Fed from cutting rates, while others anticipate that recession risks will compel the Fed to implement aggressive monetary easing to stabilize the economy. Examining bond market data can help determine which of these scenarios is more plausible.Recent Trends in 10-Year Treasury YieldsSince peaking at over 5% during the previous U.S. rate-hiking cycle, the 1

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized

U.S. Economy Facing Rising Risks of RecessionSince January, recession risks in the U.S. economy have become increasingly salient. Optimistic market sentiment has subsided, and policy shifts under the Trump administration—including tariff hikes, federal budget cuts, and layoffs at Doge Corporation—have significantly dampened economic momentum.Key indicators show evident deterioration:On March 11, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell to 4.28%, down from January's optimistic peak of 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index also sharply declined from 110.17 (January 13) to 103.39 (March 11).The Atlanta Fed drastically cut its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to -2.4%, citing weak consumer spending and net exports.Recent retail sales figures notably missed expectations, consumption growth slowed sharp

The US stock market has experienced a continuous decline over the past three weeks, with an overall drop of around 5%. From the perspective of market trends over the past year and a half, this three-week period often marks an important node, indicating either the end of an adjustment or the conclusion of a phase. Therefore, whether the market can stabilize this week will have significant reference value.Using the S&P 500 as a reference, every adjustment since the middle of last year has lasted about three weeks, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Even in slightly longer-term market trends with more weekly adjustments, there usually is a small rebound or correction after three weeks. If history repeats itself or if trends need to continue, the US stock market should not exper

Germany Announces Historic Fiscal Stimulus PlanGermany dropped a bombshell today as the incoming German government announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus plan. This includes establishing a €500 billion special infrastructure fund, providing "unlimited" support for defense spending, and permitting local governments to increase borrowing. Altogether, the total scale of this plan could exceed €1 trillion.The magnitude of Germany's fiscal stimulus plan is on par with the historic impact of the reunification of East and West Germany over 35 years ago. In the short term, this initiative aims to "provide a safety net" to prevent further economic deterioration. From a mid-term perspective, the plan is expected to bring a "paradigm shift" to Germany's economic growth model. With increased defen

Last Friday, U.S. stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% in a single day. This resulted in a clear bearish weekly candlestick pattern. Combined with similar performances from the other two major indices, concerns have arisen about whether the prolonged inability to reach new highs might lead to a sustained correction.The majority of the Nasdaq's losses last week were concentrated on Friday. While the market remains in a consolidation phase at high levels and there are no apparent adverse developments in market sentiment or themes, auxiliary indicators suggest caution regarding a potential pullback. At the current level, chasing highs is not advisable. Whether it is feasible to attempt short positions depends on how the next one to two weeks play out aro

In the past one to two weeks, various asset classes have shown slight divergences in their movements. Notably, the U.S. dollar, influenced by Trump's tariff-related discussions, experienced a pronounced spike followed by a pullback, with short-term corrections continuing. Although the market’s broader retracement is not yet over, the U.S. dollar remains one of the strongest currencies in the medium term. Therefore, when prices are favorable, trading the dollar with a focus on wealth management and systematic investment remains a viable option. Comparatively, the dollar is not ideal for speculative trading, as achieving excess returns in this asset class is more challenging.Advantages of the U.S. DollarThe dollar holds several notable advantages, as previously discussed. Here, we will brief