Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY once again. 63% profit from taking SPY calls on the last day of June as anticipated. Looking forward to greater gains in the second half of 2023 starting next week! 🤑
The S&P 500 has risen 15.9% this year to 4,450.38, but we're actually in a bull market, with a 24% gain from the 2022 closing low of 3,577.03 on Oct. 12. (One definition of a bull market is a 20% price increase for a stock index.)
Although a pullback is likely to come over the short-term, especially heading into the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates scheduled for July 25 and July 26, a continuation of the bullish cycle could continue into the end of the year.
Take the stairs next?
The S&P 500 gapped up 0.59% to start the trading day on Friday and continued to edge higher intraday to close out the first half of 2023 up about 16%. This run was led by Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), which crossed the $3 trillion market-cap level.
The index has been guided higher by the companies with the highest weighting, with all the top five holdings within the S&P 500 up significantly since the start of the year.
Since the Dec. 30 market close, Apple surged about 47%, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) increased 44%, Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) rose almost 55%, NVIDIA Corporation skyrocketed a whopping 188% and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) soared about 113%.
The S&P 500 and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) are showing signs the local top may be in and a retracement, at least to start the second half of 2023, may be in the cards because they have formed triple top patterns on the daily chart.
Trade #1
Trade #2
Trade #3
Most analysts draw upon history to offer hopes for a better performance in the second half. LPL Financial's Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist said, "Stocks are off to an impressive start this year, and history suggests the bullish momentum could continue into the second half."
That said, the analyst warned that it may not be a vertical takeoff. "However, expect some bumps along the way as the market faces headwinds from additional global monetary policy tightening, including the prospect of further rate hikes from the Fed, stubbornly high inflation, interest rate volatility, and elevated recession risk."
The caution is laced with optimism, as Turnquist noted that the drawdowns in the second half are typically shallow after a positive first half. He also noted that a pullback in stocks could provide investors who missed the first-half rally a buying opportunity into this new bull market.
Weekly option trades summary
Please click Like 👍, Comment 💬 & Repost 🔄 this article found at the bottom of your screen. Follow me for the latest news, trading ideas & strategies to ride the market daily with profits! 🤑
@CaptainTiger @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion
Comments
A pullback in the S&P 500 is expected, but the bullish cycle could continue into the end of the year. #StockMarket
Apple and other top holdings have contributed to the S&P 500's impressive gains this year. #MarketPerformance
Analysts are optimistic about the second half but warn of potential headwinds and bumps along the way.
this is going to 4800-5500 by next year
then the biggest crash evee
this is going to 4800-5500 by next year
then the biggest crash ever
Signs of a local top may indicate a retracement in the S&P 500 for the second half of 2023.