Stock markets closed the day with solid gains, marking the end of a record week, month, quarter and first half. During the week, several important macroeconomic events also took place.
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MAIN EVENTS
PCE - The figures showed a 0.1% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year increase in the May PCE index, the nation's favorite inflation indicator. Fed. While these numbers represent a slowdown from April, they were generally well received. Some observers pointed to this as a positive for fighting inflation, while others noted that underlying inflation persisted.
GDP - The report showed growth of 2% in the first quarter, an upward revision from the previous estimate of 1.3%. The increase reflects upward revisions to exports, consumer spending, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.
MARKET SCENARIO
This economic data has fueled speculation that the Fed may consider a rate hike at its July 26 meeting, as Jerome Powell warned. Initial stock market reactions were positive, but persistent underlying inflation drove bond yields higher.
In terms of market performance, the first half was exceptional. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 15.9% in the first six months of the year, rising 6.5% in June. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ had its best six-month start to the year in 40 years, rising 31.7% for the first half, with gains of 6.6% in June. The $DJIA(.DJI)$ has posted a more modest performance, rising 3.8% so far this year. However, the value-oriented index is approaching its all-time high, being just 6.5% off its January 2022 high
SPX LEVELS
We are entering the best seasonal period of the year for US Equities.
SPX Seasonal
Key levels: 4360 - 4400
Upper zone: 4450-4475-4500 in major resistance
Lower area: 4425-4400-4360-4340
SPX Levels
NEXT WEEK
Next week should provide investors with more visibility on the health of the global economy and central bank monetary policies, with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, ISM Services PMI, statistics of unemployment insurance claims and the creation of new jobs. in the United States on Thursday. On Wednesday, OPEC will meet all day, and on Friday we will have the release of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings in the United States.
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