[EVENTS] How will SPX close on Wednesday 12 July?

Click to vote. Can you predict how will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close on Wednesday 12 July? If you get the right answers, You may divide 1000 Tiger Coins with other Tigers. In addition, you have the chance of winning Tiger Gifts.

After the June jobs report showed a cooling but still-hot picture of the labor market, investors are looking to a key inflation report due Wednesday for more clues on the economy’s health. 

The labor market added just 209,000 jobs in June, below economists’ expectations for a net gain of 225,000 jobs. That’s the smallest monthly gain since a decline in December 2020, but with stubbornly high wage growth ensuring inflation concerns remain embedded.

What are analysts saying？

Economists expect a 3.1% increase in consumer prices for the year ended in June, which would be a cooldown from a 4% annual increase in May, according to Refinitiv.

Recent data has suggested that inflation is coming down, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 3.8% for the 12 months ended in May. That’s down from the revised 4.3% annual rise seen in April.
But it’s unlikely that the June CPI report will change the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, barring a huge upside or downside surprise, especially considering that Fed officials in recent weeks have been vocal that more rate hikes are likely coming, said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at DA Davidson.

What is the market telling us?

Markets are pricing in a 92% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until June 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.

From the price calculation of SPX ATM options expiring on July 12, we know that, based on last Friday's closing price of 4398, the market expects Wednesday's closing price of this week's SPX to rise by 0.42, and fall by 0.48, with the probability of decline slightly greater than that of rise.

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⏰Event Time

• The event will last until  21:00 on Wednesday 12 July 2023

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