We can offer sympathy, but will the market offer mercy? Remember to hedge.

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ Summary of news (compiled by Gemini) The week starting July 13, 2026, sa

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Jul2026) Meta is having a moment... again. Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger are glitching for users around the world, with desktop Facebook logins failing and Instagram throwing up “something went wrong” messages. The apps appear to be working for some people, so this isn’t a total blackout, just enough chaos to make everyone wonder whether they’ve been hacked. Nope. Meta is simply falling apart again. Source: The Independent / Writer: Ian The US is spending $50 billion on data center construction, exceeding the combined spending on airports, ports, and mass transit, per Bloomberg. "We replaced Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM built for our own workflows. The custom system integrated our AI agents more effectively, worked better for the team, an

Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.16, indicating that the market has more buying momentum than selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above 200-day (MA200) moving average but just cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and a probable trend change in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. E

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026) Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook. Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies. Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions. New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of th

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026) Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook. Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies. Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions. New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of the real estate m

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Jul2026) From X user Katie Miller: OpenAI’s last 24 hours: > Top Exec unexpectedly departs > Shuts down browser tool after 9 months > Sued for trade theft by Apple > Caught selling product to China against sanctions OpenAI is shutting down Atlas, its standalone AI browser, less than a year after launch. The company announced the deprecation alongside ChatGPT Work, a desktop superapp that folds browser capabilities into the main ChatGPT app. Atlas joins Sora and the shelved adult mode as products OpenAI has quietly walked away from in recent months. - X user Hedgie A Brown University economics professor made his take-home midterm harder than usual, figuring unlimited time justified it. 86 students enrolled, up from a typical 8 to 30.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (13Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.14, indicating the market has more buying momentum than selling. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving averages. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook

Earnings Calendar (13Jul2026) The earnings season starts with the financial institutions with some of the biggest bank giants: Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan. Other key earnings will include BlackRock, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, United, TSMC and Wise. The importance of the banking earnings (compiled with help from Grok and Gemini) The big banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs) kick off earnings season as the ultimate macroeconomic health check. Because they sit at the center of capital flow, their financial results serve two critical functions: Main Street Health Check: Metrics like credit card spending, loan delinquencies, and credit loss provisions reveal the true financial stamina and default risks of the American consumer. Wall Street Sentiment: Inv

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Jul2026) Key Economic Data to Watch The most closely watched release in the coming week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month on month, making it a key indicator for inflation trends and market expectations. China’s second-quarter GDP will also be announced. With the previous reading at 5.0%, the result will serve as an important gauge of China’s economic momentum and a useful reference point for global consumption trends. Inflation and Producer Costs The June Producer Price Index (PPI) will be another important release, with a forecast increase of 0.2%. PPI is a useful leading indicator for consumer inflation because higher producer costs may eventually be passed on to consumers through goods

Post preview The Korea crash already happened. KOSPI fell 9.99% on June 23. Circuit breakers triggered. KOSDAQ down 8%. Foreign investors sold for 21 consecutive sessions. Forced liquidations hit ₩91.7B in a single session. This wasn't a prediction. It was a confirmation. Global margin debt is at or near record levels across six major markets: 🇺🇸 US: $1.42T — up 53.7% YoY. Net credit balance near record low of -$871B. 🇨🇳 China: $412B — a fresh record. Regulators are watching. 🇰🇷 Korea: Strict margin $23–26B. Total retail leverage potentially up to $68.5B. Samsung + SK Hynix = ~50% of KOSPI. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: +160% YoY surge. Defaults rising. Near dot-com era highs. The level matters. The rate of growth matters more. And the concentration risk underneath both is what turns a correction into a cas

News and my thoughts from the past week (06Jul2026) The ability to innovate does not always translate to the ability to lead or manage. It can be a lapse or a flaw. Knowing the difference is important. Meta employees consumed 73.7 trillion AI tokens in a single month. That costs roughly $221 million a month, or $2.65 billion a year. The median Meta employee makes $388,200. At that rate, the token spend alone could pay for about 6,800 engineers for a full year. - X user Hedgie Half of investors have reduced their portfolio risk, while 62% expect a recession and 71% worry market volatility will hurt their finances. Gen Z is the most concerned, citing job security and weaker savings, per Allianz. - X user Unusual Whales Google reportedly doesn't have enough AI capacity to meet demand - Z user

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend, and a reversal can be in the works. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.04, indicating the market has more selling momentum than buying. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average

Earnings Calendar (06Jul2026) I am interested in the earnings announcements of Levi’s, Kura and Delta Airlines. Let us look at Delta Airlines. Why are Delta Airlines’ earnings important? Delta Air Lines serves as a strong bellwether for the U.S. airline industry and broader economy due to its scale, consistent profitability, and detailed reporting. Its quarterly earnings offer key insights through metrics like revenue growth, TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile), premium versus main cabin performance, corporate and leisure demand breakdowns, capacity trends, and operating margins. For the industry, strong TRASM and premium revenue growth signal healthy demand and pricing power, while capacity discipline and margin trends indicate supply conditions and cost efficiency. Delta’s resu

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Jul2026) Services Sector Indicators S&P Global Services PMI: The June forecast is 51.3, suggesting continued growth compared with the previous reading. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: The June release is expected in the coming week. The previous reading of 71.3 pointed to elevated inflationary pressures across the non-manufacturing sector, with higher costs likely filtering through to consumers. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The June forecast is 54.2, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. Energy Market Signals Crude oil inventories previously recorded a drawdown of more than 3.7 million barrels, suggesting producers may be responding to stronger expected consumer demand. This is a bullish indicator, and the upcoming release shou

List of the most profitable companies. Do you have any in your portfolio? From X user EconomyAPP. $Alphabet(GOOG)$   $Microsoft(MSFT)$  

My Investing Muse (29Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies The software and cloud computing firm says it had around 141,000 full-time employees as of 31 May 2026, down from about 162,000 workers at the same time last year. The "deployment of AI technologies across our operations has resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce," the report says. - BBC Summary of layoffs by Gemini The final week of June 2026 saw major workforce reductions driven by aggressive shifts toward AI automation and cooling global consumer demand. Automotive: Volkswagen is planning an overhaul that could cut up to 100,000 global jobs. Porsche raised its planned cuts to 3,900 due to crashing margins in China, and Lucid Motors shed 18% (~1,500 roles) to matc

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Jun2026) On June 25 data: BlackRock IBIT ~$266M outflow, but Fidelity FBTC had even larger ~$275M outflow same day. Total US BTC ETF net outflow exceeded $690M. GBTC flat. Broader June has seen heavy redemptions overall. Institutions appear cautious, but BTC has shown resilience so far. Context: macro factors + typical summer dynamics at play. - Grok CNBC just admitted AI demand is falling and that's why SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to go public. - X user Financelot @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$