After 34 years of service, one of America’s most recognizable low-cost carriers Spirit Airlines has officially shut down its operations permanently  All flights have been canceled, and customer service systems have gone offline 17,000 jobs lost. Fuel costs are up. Unemployment is up. And businesses can’t afford to stay affordable. Other ULCCs like Frontier Airlines are under similar pressure from sky-high jet fuel costs (doubled amid Iran-related oil disruptions), debt loads, and thin margins. Allegiant and some European/Indian carriers (e.g., SpiceJet) have also flagged risks of cuts or worse.  Majors like Delta/United are raising fares, slashing unprofitable routes, and hiking fees to weather it instead of folding. Broader industry consolidation likely ahead. The above is taken

My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe

News and my thoughts from the past week (04May2026) We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning. - X user The Kobeissi Letter UN boss Guterres just went full doomsday mode on the Strait of Hormuz chaos: If it drags on, we’re staring at global recession, inflation exploding past 6%, 32 million more people shoved into poverty, and

Market Outlook of S&P500 (04May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.46, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

Earnings Calendar (04May2026) In the coming week the most anticipated earnings releases include that of Palantir, Tyson, Berkshire Hathaway, AMD, PayPal, Walt Disney, KKR, and McDonald’s. Who is KKR? KKR & Co. Inc. is a leading global investment firm founded in 1976 that pioneered the private equity industry. As of early 2026, it manages approximately $744 billion in assets, operating across private equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate, and capital markets. Known for its hands-on “one-firm” approach, KKR aims for operational excellence in its portfolio companies, holding investments for 5–7 years. The firm has evolved into a diversified alternative asset manager, including a major insurance business through Global Atlantic. Led by co-CEOs Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall, KKR operates

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 04May2026) International Market Closures China will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country observes Labor Day celebrations. This holiday may impact trading volumes and activity in Asian markets during these days. Key U.S. Economic Indicators The S&P Global Services PMI for April is projected to be 51.3, indicating an expansionary trend in the global services sector. New home sales data for March will be released, offering valuable insight into the current health of the real estate market. Several labour market indicators are scheduled for release in the coming week. JOLTS job openings for March will be published, with the previous figure at 6.882 million. This data will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve when con

The chart from Crescat shows analyst estimates for the next-4Q rolling FCF of AI hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL) rising for years but now plunging sharply into 2026—with Oracle flipping negative and combined FCF collapsing. Implication: Massive AI capex is projected to outrun revenue growth, squeezing cash flows hard. This divergence from the rising S&P 500 flags valuation risk and potential margin pressure in big tech despite the hype. Estimates can shift, but it's a clear "race to the bottom" warning on profitability. Source is from Crescent Capital. (The above from Grok.) $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$

good summary by my Substack friend Tiger Capital Research. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$  

Great summary of Big Tech earnings by my friend Tiger Capital Research. $Alphabet(GOOG)$  $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Apr26) @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Apr26) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.39, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to turn upwards, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential

Earnings Calendar (27Apr26) This is an exciting week for earnings with the results of UPS, Coca-Cola, Robin Hood, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Chevron Phillips and ExxonMobil. Let us look at the earnings release of UPS. The stock price of UPS has risen 16.8% compared to a year ago. With an EPS of $6.56 and a P/E ratio of 16.3, this is a rather attractive offering at the current price. According to technical analysis, there is a recommendation of “strong buy”. Analysts’ sentiment reflects a similar recommendation of “buy”. With the target price of $112.56, there is a potential upside of 5.17%. Total annual revenue has fallen from $97.2 billion in 2021 to $88.6 billion in 2025. We see a similar drop in gross profit from $23.2 billion in 2021 to $20 billion in 2025. Net

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207

Quick analysis of S&P500 S&P500 closed the day with 6886.24, a gain of 1.02%. Analysts have claimed that the Gulf War losses were wiped out. Let us look at some of the technicals. MACD is on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the 50- and 200-day moving average (MA) lines on the daily interval. This implies bullish in both the short and long term. The 3 exponential moving average (EMA) lines are on the up trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in the selling region even though there is increasing buying momentum. What is concerning is the volume. Volume is the momentum of the trade that is not supported, meaning that the current run may not last. Let us exercise caution and do our due diligence. @TigerStars

Special Focus on Private Credit Risk The Fed is now asking banks how exposed they are to private credit. The Treasury is asking insurers the same question. They’re doing it quietly, through routine examination channels & not a formal investigation. That’s what regulators do when they’re worried but don’t yet know how worried to be. - X user Nic @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$