Reuters reported the following news on 17 Feb 2023:
China's oil refining capacity overtook the United States as the world's largest in 2022, an industry official said on Thursday, though its production of fuel products lagged the United States due to low utilisation rates.
Total refining capacity in China expanded to 920 million tonnes per year, or 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd), in 2022 Fu Xiangsheng, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, told reporters.
That compares with U.S. refining capacity as of December at 17.6 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency's latest oil market report.
China's total refined products output last year was less than 700 million tonnes (5.1 billion barrels), at an average plant utilisation rate of around 70%, the association said, compared with more than 800 million tonnes in the United States, where average utilisation exceeded 90%.
China has 32 refineries with at least 200,000 bpd capacity each, according to the association, citing the launch of a new facility built by PetroChina in Jieyang in Guangdong province as a recent example of the country's growing capacity.
China has overtaken the US in crude refining capacity at 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 17.6 million bpd of the US. From the existing plants, China has the potential to optimize its operations to yield greater utilization and thus refinery productivity.
On top of this, China has been expanding their refinery capacity with more refineries being built and current ones expanded.
China leads global refinery CDU capacity additions by 2027
As per the news extract above, crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity is set to grow the most in Asia with China, India and Pakistan leading the charge. This will lead to a 14% growth of CDU over the next 4 years (ending 2027).
From the chart above, China will have the most CDU growth between 2023 to 2027 through new builds and expansion of current refineries. From this list, the sole representation from the West is the United States.
Here are some Reuters news article extracts about a worldwide oil refinery crunch dated 23 June 2022:
Overall, there is enough capacity to refine about 100 million barrels of oil a day, according to the International Energy Agency, but about 20% of that capacity is not useable. That leaves somewhere around 82-83 million bpd in projected capacity.
The refining industry estimates that the world lost a total of 3.3 million barrels of daily refining capacity since the start of 2020. About a third of these losses occurred in the United States, with the rest in Russia, China, and Europe.
Research using Google Bard:
There are currently 21 planned steam crackers being built in mainland China, with a total capacity of 13.7 million metric tons per year (mtpa). The construction of these new crackers is expected to help to meet the growing demand for petrochemical products in China. It is also expected to create jobs and boost the economy.
Conclusion
There are various sources that predict a slowdown in oil demand. This is an extract from the International Energy Agency:
The Oil 2023 medium-term market report forecasts that based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) – supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
When we look at oil, we need to look beyond gasoline, diesel but also into the various products such as lubricants, plastics, bitumen and more.
In the New York Times article above, it mentioned about a drop in oil after 2026:
World demand for oil is likely to drop off sharply over the next five years, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday, as a shift to electric vehicles and other cleaner technologies brings growth in global oil use almost to a complete halt.
Yet, Elon Musk mentioned that oil will remain in a 2022 CNBC article:
Personally, I lean towards Elon’s view that oil will remain in demand until we can find a more sustainable, affordable energy source. To meet the growing demand, there needs to be more investment in the refinery capacity. In this area, China looks to be in the lead. China looks poised to be a net exporter of oil & related products as it ramps up its refinery capacity. Asia will be a region of great interest as Europe and the West sees a continual drop in refinery capacity.
@TigerStars
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thanks all
Ok