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10-27

The Polycrisis: How Today’s Problems Connect (27Oct2026)

The Polycrisis: How Today’s Problems Connect The risks we share in late 2026 — and why no single cause explains them. In brief What’s happening. Past downturns had one main cause. In late 2026, energy, food, household finances, lending and stocks are under pressure together. Problems in one area make the others worse. Why it matters. These systems depend on each other and have little spare capacity or reserves. They are less able to absorb setbacks, so problems spread quickly. What to check. Review your cash reserves, debt repayments, investments and insurance. Keep a financial cushion, and consider how several problems could affect you at once. Past financial crises usually had a main cause: speculation and borrowing to buy shares in 1929, overpriced internet stocks in the dot-com crash,
The Polycrisis: How Today’s Problems Connect (27Oct2026)
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10-26
How Much Profit Do the World’s Biggest Companies Keep? Key Takeaways Nvidia generates $55.60 in profit for every $100 in revenue, the highest margin among the 30 largest companies in the Fortune Global 500. Big Tech dominates the top of the ranking, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta each keeping more than $30 of every $100 in revenue as profit. At the other end, several of the world’s largest retailers, health care companies, and energy firms keep less than $5 per $100. The world’s biggest companies generate enormous revenues, but the share that ultimately becomes profit varies widely. This graphic ranks the world’s 30 largest companies by how much profit they generate for every $100 in revenue, based on Fortune Global 500 data. Profits are after taxes, extraordinary credits or ch
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10-26

(Part 5 of 5) - My Investing Muse (26Oct2026)

My Investing Muse (26Oct2026) Waiting for the AI bank run An “AI bank run” is a possible risk, not a reported event [scenario]. In a bank run, withdrawals outpace repayment. Here, lenders and investors could withdraw funding faster than AI projects can replace it or renew debt. The risk is in credit markets, not bank queues. Rising lower-rated data-centre financing makes this scenario relevant. Cybersecurity and AI oversight. [fact] Last week brought an urgent CISA patch alert, a PyTorch supply-chain flaw and a critical GitLab bug. Claims that OpenAI lacks resources to address concerns are unverified. Can oversight keep pace with more autonomous AI? Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO in September [fact]; a listing remains a future possibility. Listings require disclosure, while regulators sep
(Part 5 of 5) - My Investing Muse (26Oct2026)
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10-26

(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026) 1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain. 2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5. 3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recu
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026)
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10-26

(Part 3 of 5) - Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026) Technicals as of Friday 23 October close (Yahoo Finance data): · Close 7,623.68 — down ~0.5% on the week, ~2.5% below the record 7,818.9 set earlier this month, still +11.4% year to date. · Below the 50-day average (7,700) and 20-day exponential average (7,713), but above the 200-day average (7,291). Short-term strength has faded; the longer-term uptrend holds. The index is roughly 330 points above its 200-day average. · MACD: −3.1, below its +12.6 signal line. This price-trend indicator suggests weakening momentum. · Chaikin Money Flow: −0.02. This price-and-volume indicator suggests modest, not heavy, selling. · Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42. Momentum is weak, but not yet “oversold”—a level suggesting unusually heavy selling. · The long-term t
(Part 3 of 5) - Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)
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10-26

(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar (26Oct2026) - Amazon

Earnings Calendar (26Oct2026) Major earnings this week (Kimi compiled public calendars; Benson must confirm dates against his earnings calendar): · Wednesday: Microsoft and Alphabet after the close · Thursday: Amazon (AMZN) after the close — this week’s deep dive; Shell before the open · The shared question: is heavy AI spending generating sufficient returns? Amazon reports Thursday 29 October after the close; its call is at 5:00 pm ET. Figures come from the Yahoo Finance plugin and public sources. Profits are strong, but data-centre spending has sharply reduced free cash flow—cash left after capital investment. Valuation and sentiment. Amazon closed Friday at US$248.00, up about 10.6% over twelve months, with a market value near US$2.7 trillion. Barchart reports roughly 20% over its 52-we
(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar (26Oct2026) - Amazon
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10-26

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar - 26 Oct 2026

Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending Economic Calendar (26Oct2026) Five major central banks announce rates this week, alongside the UK Budget. The Fed decides before key US inflation reports. Europe has ended summer time; the US changes on 1 November. For Asian readers, US events arrive one hour earlier than usual. 1. Fed decision — Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 pm ET (Chair Warsh’s press conference: 2:30 pm). Rates are 3.75–4.00%, following September’s first increase in three years. A hold is expected: 94 of 100 Reuters-polled economists predict no change; CME futures suggest a 10% chance of an increase. No updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) are due. Watch the response to September’s 3.7% consumer inflation and signals of a December increase, as Pimc
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar - 26 Oct 2026
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10-26

(Full article) Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending

Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending Economic Calendar (26Oct2026) Five major central banks announce rates this week, alongside the UK Budget. The Fed decides before key US inflation reports. Europe has ended summer time; the US changes on 1 November. For Asian readers, US events arrive one hour earlier than usual. 1. Fed decision — Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 pm ET (Chair Warsh’s press conference: 2:30 pm). Rates are 3.75–4.00%, following September’s first increase in three years. A hold is expected: 94 of 100 Reuters-polled economists predict no change; CME futures suggest a 10% chance of an increase. No updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) are due. Watch the response to September’s 3.7% consumer inflation and signals of a December increase, as Pimc
(Full article) Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending
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10-23

News Flash: The Protest Wave Goes Global — 23Oct26

NEWS FLASH: The Protest Wave Goes Global — 23Oct26 What began in 2025 as a youth revolt across Asia, Africa and Latin America has, through October 2026, reached Europe. More than 20 countries across four continents have now seen Gen Z-led protests. Europe is the latest chapter — not the source. Executive Summary Observation. A youth-led protest wave that started in 2025 — Indonesia, Nepal, Madagascar, Morocco, Peru — has spread into Europe through October 2026: France, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Spain, Albania and Belgium, with Germany next in line. The triggers vary by country; the pattern does not. Finding. The root is shared: a generation priced out of housing, short on secure work, and worn down by weak services and corruption. The movement is largely leaderless, organised on Discord and
News Flash: The Protest Wave Goes Global — 23Oct26
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10-18

(Part 5 of 5) - my investing muse (19Oct2026)

5 · My Investing Muse Our thoughts on the week ahead. We use this section to explore questions, not to offer firm conclusions. The AI money-go-round The way money moves around the AI industry continues to concern us. Some attention is now on companies such as CoreWeave. Its co-founders have reportedly sold about $3.3 billion of shares since the 2025 IPO, while the value of their remaining holdings has fallen sharply. Insiders can sell shares for many reasonable reasons. Even so, it is fair to ask whether some are selling now because they expect prices to fall further. AI/ML as a share of US VC deal value, rising toward ~83% in 2026 YTD — Social Capital / PitchBook-NVCA. The real bottleneck is physical AI growth depends on more than computer chips, storage and internet connections. It also
(Part 5 of 5) - my investing muse (19Oct2026)
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10-18

(Part 4 of 5) - leading news (19Oct2026)

4 · Last week’s leading news These are the main stories we are highlighting for readers this week, shown as they originally appeared so readers can judge them for themselves. @Kalshi_Finance · 16 Oct — CoreWeave founders cashed out $3.3bn. BigGo Finance · 15 Oct — CoreWeave founders’ $3.3bn cash-out; paper wealth down ~$15bn. @unusual_whales · 17 Oct — IMF warning on an AI-bubble hit to global growth. @WatcherGuru · 17 Oct — Bank of America on the AI investment cycle. @unusual_whales · 17 Oct — call to delay Anthropic’s IPO over AI-safety concerns. @coinbureau · 15 Oct — Anthropic Q3 revenue and IPO timing. Yahoo Finance — Nvidia’s Jensen Huang on cutting off unsafe-AI customers. @unusual_whales · 15 Oct — eight US states sue OpenAI. WSJ, via Threads — Netflix cutting about 1,000 jobs. @Tr
(Part 4 of 5) - leading news (19Oct2026)
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10-18

(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 technical analysis

3 · S&P 500 — technical read (daily chart) For the daily chart, we first look at MACD, which shows changes in market momentum. We then check the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the flow of trading money to see whether buyers or sellers have more control. Together, these indicators suggest one way to approach the week; they do not predict what will happen. S&P 500 (^GSPC), daily — Yahoo Finance; close 16 Oct 7,659.44 (−1.09%). Market signal summary — short-term downtrend, long-term uptrend: The S&P 500 closed at 7,659.44 on 16 October, down 1.09% for the day and about 2% for the week. The index fell below its 50-day moving average near 7,700, while MACD crossed below its signal line, both pointing to weakening short-term momentum. However, the index remained about 5% abov
(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 technical analysis
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10-18

(2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - P&G's earnings

2 · How we research a company — Procter & Gamble (PG) Rather than give readers a list of stocks, we want to explain the research process. Procter & Gamble reports this week, so we use it as an example of how to decide whether a company belongs in a portfolio. This explains a method; it is not a recommendation. US earnings week ahead, 19–23 Oct 2026 — Stock Titan. P&G reports before the open on Thursday. Reports: before the open on Thursday 22 October 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027). The company at a glance P&G at $159.35 on 16 Oct — Investing.com. ‘Earnings in 4 days’; five-year total return about +31%. Company snapshot: P&G traded at $159.35 on 16 October, giving it a market value of about $370bn. The shares were valued at roughly 24 times earnings and offered a 2.7% dividend yi
(2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - P&G's earnings
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10-18

(1 of 5) Economics Calendar (19Oct2026)

1 · The economic calendar This section is not about guessing the numbers. It is about understanding what each report may tell us and how markets often react. This week is light, and Federal Reserve officials are not speaking publicly, so the data will mainly shape expectations before more important events next week. Calendar summary: This is a light data week. China’s third-quarter GDP is expected to improve slightly to 4.4% from 4.3%. US jobless claims are forecast to edge up from 199,000 to 200,000, which would still point to a stable labour market. Both US PMI readings are expected to ease slightly, but remain well above 50, so services and manufacturing should continue to expand. Oil inventories will provide an additional check on energy demand and supply. Homebuilder confidence and ho
(1 of 5) Economics Calendar (19Oct2026)
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10-18

Preview of the week - Proctor & Gamble earnings (19Oct2026)

Through My Asian Lens · Pukka Perspectives Weekly Investing Preview United States market · Week of Monday 19 – Friday 23 October 2026 The calendar is quieter this week, but many companies will report earnings, and the market has recently weakened. Here is how we see the week ahead — as a guide for thinking, not a list of trades to copy. 1 · The economic calendar This section is not about guessing the numbers. It is about understanding what each report may tell us and how markets often react. This week is light, and Federal Reserve officials are not speaking publicly, so the data will mainly shape expectations before more important events next week. Calendar summary: This is a light data week. China’s third-quarter GDP is expected to improve slightly to 4.4% from 4.3%. US jobless claims are
Preview of the week - Proctor & Gamble earnings (19Oct2026)
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10-12
Let us consider planning our year-end travel in areas less prone to extreme weathers, natural disasters like earthquake and volcanic activities. At the same time, Let us consider preparing some emergency toolkit. Keep well all and stay safe. Over the past week, severe weather and major natural disasters were heavily defined by an active Pacific basin and late-season Atlantic tropical activity. A powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck near Panama's Azuero Peninsula at a shallow depth, injuring at least 27 people, damaging more than 400 structures, and triggering widespread power outages across six provinces. In the tropics, Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph sustained winds. It marked the latest first-hurricane formation of an Atlanti
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10-12

S&P500, the Magnificent 7 & the S&P493 (YTD performance)

Here’s a ~300-word summary of our three-part market analysis (data as of 9–10 Oct 2026), in prose. 1. YTD performance and the reversal. 2026 flipped the script. The S&P 500 is up roughly 14.9% on a total-return basis, but the Magnificent 7 lagged (cap-weighted around +11%, equal-weighted around +5%) while the S&P 493 led (about +16%). The seven names that drove 62% of 2023’s gains became a drag this year, with Microsoft (−19%) and Tesla (−14%) offsetting Apple and Alphabet. Breadth broadened in the first half, then re-narrowed in Q3 (Equal-Weight −2%, Russell 2000 −7%). Concentration sits at a record ~38–40% top-10 weight, exceeding the dot-com peak. 2. Leverage and the pipeline. Margin debt hit a record ~$1.5T (+37% year-on-year), with net free credit at −$1.03T — no cash cushion
S&P500, the Magnificent 7 & the S&P493 (YTD performance)
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10-11

(Part 3 of 3) News and my investing muse (12Oct2026)

INVESTING PREVIEW (12Oct2026) III. News and My Investing Muse Energy is driving inflation. Brent crude averaged about $114 in September, while petrol and diesel reached record monthly prices. Core inflation is still easing, but the Fed cannot solve an oil shock with higher interest rates. Car buyers are feeling the pressure. A quarter of new-car loans now run longer than 84 months. The average amount financed is $44,664, with a monthly payment of $787. I’ll be listening for signs that banks are seeing more household stress. A small insurer is flashing a warning. South Carolina is moving to take control of Atlantic Coast Life Insurance after concerns about risky, hard-to-sell investments. The company is not large enough to threaten the wider system, but the case shows how higher rates can e
(Part 3 of 3) News and my investing muse (12Oct2026)
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10-11

(Part 2 of 3) S&P500 technical analysis (12Oct2026)

INVESTING PREVIEW (12Oct02026) II. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 reached a record 7,819 on October 6, breaking above its August high after two quiet months. Still, momentum is weaker than it was in July. The RSI, a measure of market strength, has fallen to 55 from 75. The VIX is also low at 14.8, which suggests investors may be too relaxed ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. I’m watching three levels: 7,800, 7,700 and 7,550–7,575. Holding above 7,800 would support the breakout. A drop below 7,550 on a Friday close could open the way to 7,350. The trend is still up, but I do not want to chase it before the inflation data. Michael Burry warns that investors are in denial. That may be true, but the market is still at record highs and the trend remains positive. I’m taking
(Part 2 of 3) S&P500 technical analysis (12Oct2026)
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10-11

(Part 1 of 3) I. Economic and Earnings Calendar - BlackRock?

My Investing Muse — Week of October 12, 2026 Three weeks before the midterms, markets have a lot to digest. This week, I’m focusing on what the key numbers mean—and what I plan to do about them. I. Economic and Earnings Calendar Monday is Columbus Day. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open. Big banks start reporting Tuesday, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. UnitedHealth also reports. Wednesday is the key day. September inflation data arrives at 8:30 a.m., alongside results from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. Economists expect headline inflation of 3.6–3.7% and core inflation of 2.4%. The Fed still expects another rate increase this year, but markets see only a small chance of one on October 28. If core inflation runs hott
(Part 1 of 3) I. Economic and Earnings Calendar - BlackRock?

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