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03-03

Summary of Recent Developments in Private Credit (from Blue Owl to BlackStone)

Summary of Recent Developments in Private Credit In early March 2026, Blackstone's BCRED (Blackstone Private Credit Fund), the largest private credit fund with around $82 billion in assets, reported record redemption requests totaling 7.9% of shares for Q1 — equivalent to roughly $3.7 billion at current valuations. This exceeded the fund's standard quarterly repurchase limit of 5%. Blackstone $Blackstone Group LP(BX)$ addressed the situation by: Increasing the tender offer to 7% of the fund. Covering the remaining 0.9% (about $400 million) through investments from the firm and its employees. Fulfilling all requests this quarter, consistent with its practice since inception. The fund had over $8 billion in liquidity at the end of 2025 and received ab
Summary of Recent Developments in Private Credit (from Blue Owl to BlackStone)
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03-02
The US-Israel vs. Iran conflict (now in its Day 3–4 as of March 2, 2026) remains highly active and escalating, with no signs of de-escalation. The joint operation began February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior IRGC/military/intelligence figures, decapitating much of Iran's top leadership. Iran retaliated with repeated ballistic missile and drone barrages under "Operation True Promise 4," targeting Israel, US regional bases, and Gulf states. Latest Developments (as of early March 2, 2026) Ongoing strikes: Israel launched fresh "large-scale" waves on Tehran (including central areas like leadership compounds, internal security/Basij bases, and possibly Gandhi Hospital/state TV sites), causing explosions, widespread dam
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03-02

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (02March2026)

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies 26% OF THE 7.5 MILLION UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS ACTIVELY SEEKING WORK HAVE BEEN JOB HUNTING FOR MORE THAN SIX MONTHS, ACCORDING TO THE FINANCIAL TIMES. - First Squawk BIG BANKRUPTCIES HAVE CLIMBED TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE COVID, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG. California’s wine industry is facing a cascade of economic and market pressures, leading even long-standing labels and industry giants like Gallo to shut down production - MacroEdge "Americans are defaulting at a crisis-level pace," per Yahoo Finance. Block to cut about 4,400 employees - MacroEdge Papa John's plans to close 300 of its restaurants by the end of 2027 as it moves to cut costs. -CBS CNBC is cutting some newsroom jobs in a reorganisation meant to unify its digital and TV news
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (02March2026)
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03-02

(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts (02March2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (02Mar2026) China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined. Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity - Elon Musk Israeli media says that after Khamenei, our next target is Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey). - X user Globe Observer South Korea’s stock market is a $40 billion leverage bomb waiting to go off. The KOSPI is up 177% in the last year. A 177% domestic rally relying almost entirely on semiconductors. $40B parked in highly leveraged U.S. tech ETFs. Volatility rising right alongside market highs. - X user Bull Theory “AI does not reduce work. It intensifies it.“ Powerful new Harvard Business Review study. - X user Rohan Paul The Pentagon just blacklisted one of America’s most valuable AI companie
(Part 4 of 5) News & my thoughts (02March2026)
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03-02

(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 outlook - what 20+ indicators say (02March2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (02Mar2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting above the 50-day & 200-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the short and long-term outlook. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. The 3 lines have converged, and we may see a trend change. Chaikin Money Flow
(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 outlook - what 20+ indicators say (02March2026)
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03-02

(Part 2 of 5) Economic Calendar - 02Mar2026 > Sea Limited?

Earnings Calendar (02Mar2026) I am interested in the earnings of Target, CrowdStrike, Sea, Broadcom, Costco, Kroger and Kura. Let us look at Sea Limited. Stock Performance and Valuation Sea Limited ended the most recent trading day with a closing price of $108.45. Reviewing the one-year price chart reveals a consistent downtrend, which has contributed to a decline of 14.8% over the past year. From a technical analysis standpoint, the recommendation is to strongly sell, reflecting the persistent negative momentum in the stock price. In contrast, analyst sentiment indicates a strong buy recommendation, with a price target set at $180.54. This target suggests a potential upside of more than 66% compared to the last closing price, raising the question of whether the stock deserves renewed
(Part 2 of 5) Economic Calendar - 02Mar2026 > Sea Limited?
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03-02

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026)

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026) Global and U.S. PMI Data The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Pric
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026)
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03-02

(Full Article) - Preview of the week starting 02Mar2026 - Sea Limited earnings & the Middle Eastern war has started

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026) Global and U.S. PMI Data The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Pric
(Full Article) - Preview of the week starting 02Mar2026 - Sea Limited earnings & the Middle Eastern war has started
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02-28

War has started in the Middle East - how the world be affected? (28Feb2026)

The conflict in the Middle East has escalated significantly, with the United States and Israel launching major strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. President Trump has described these as “major combat operations” aimed at addressing security threats, including Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities, while urging Iranians to seize the opportunity for regime change. from the CNN homepage Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting Israel and U.S. assets across the region, including in Gulf Arab states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. These actions have drawn condemnations from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which have intercepted missiles and positioned themselves against what they describe as Iranian aggression. Explosions and impa
War has started in the Middle East - how the world be affected? (28Feb2026)
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02-26
SALESFORCE Earnings summary (Source: APP Economics Insights) Salesforce Q4 FY26 (Jan. quarter): • Current RPO +13% Y/Y cc to $35.1B • Revenue +12% Y/Y to $11.2B (in-line) • Op. margin 17% (-2pp Y/Y) • Non-GAAP EPS $3.81 ($0.76 beat) FY27 guide: • Revenue +10-11% to ~$46.0B • Informatica contributing 3pp • Op. margin 20.9% $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ This looks to be a strong performance. Can they keep this up?
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02-26
Nvidia Earnings summary (Source: APP Economics Insights) NVIDIA Q4 FY26 (January quarter). • Revenue +73% Y/Y to $68.1B ($1.9B beat). • Operating margin 65% (+4pp Y/Y). • Non-GAAP EPS $1.62 ($0.08 beat). Q1 FY27 guidance: • Revenue $78.0B ($6.0B beat). $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The price broke $200 and fell after-market. Is the market having cold feet?
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02-24
India's unemployment tsunami will hit in a matter of years when AI can replace of the entry level white collar work. When the jobs are "relocated" from the West to India, it is not a permanent but a temporal case. Workers will need to create value, fighting innovations and AI to create value in the market. There will be a major reset but there will also be new roles created. It is time to learn and pivot. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$  
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02-24

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing

The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing Summary The report analyses the transformation of private markets in 2025, focusing on the impact of higher interest rates, the rise of private credit, the risks associated with Payment-in-Kind (PIK) provisions, and the evolving strategies for risk management and due diligence. It highlights how the sector is adapting to a new era of tighter liquidity, increased defaults, and a shift from growth-at-all-costs to capital preservation and transparency. Key Findings done with NoteBookLM 1. Macro Environment Shift The move from near-zero rates to a higher-rate paradigm has fundamentally changed private market valuations and liquidity needs. Public markets corrected sharply due to a lag in invest
The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing
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02-22

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies NEW GRADUATES NOW ACCOUNT FOR JUST 7% OF NEW HIRES AT BIG TECH COMPANIES, DOWN FROM 25% IN 2023 AND OVER 50% PRE-PANDEMIC, PER FORBES. CREDIT CARD DEBT IS BECOMING A GROWING FINANCIAL RISK. MORE THAN 12% OF BALANCES ARE 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT — THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 15 YEARS — WHILE AVERAGE INTEREST RATES ARE AROUND 21%. - First Squawk Walgreens to lay off hundreds of employees nationwide - MacroEdge America’s biggest wine maker shuts down production in Napa Valley in huge blow to wine heartland - California Post United Parcel Service (UPS) is planning to close dozens of packaging facilities this year, the shipping giant revealed in a court filing this week. - MacroEdge The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a recor
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility
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02-22

(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026) The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months.
(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts (23Feb2026)
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02-22

(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (23Feb2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a potential change in trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently r
(Part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (23Feb2026)
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02-22

(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - Salesforce for our portfolio? (23Feb2026)

Earnings Calendar (23Feb2026) - Salesforce Several notable companies are expected to release their earnings reports in the coming week. Among the companies of interest are AMC, Home Depot, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Baidu, and Dell. These earnings announcements are closely watched by investors and analysts, as they offer insight into each company’s financial performance and market outlook. Salesforce: AI and Market Disruption Focusing on Salesforce, the ongoing AI revolution is anticipated to generate substantial value within the business sector. This technological advancement is expected to cause significant disruptions for companies such as Salesforce, SAP, and Monday, reshaping how they operate and compete in the marketplace. Over the past year, the company’s stock price has experienced a sign
(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - Salesforce for our portfolio? (23Feb2026)
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02-22

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026
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02-22

(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 23Feb2026 - Salesforce a good addition?

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor
(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 23Feb2026 - Salesforce a good addition?
avatarKYHBKO
02-20
Walmart Q4 FY26 (January quarter): • Revenue +6% Y/Y to $190.7B ($2.4B beat). • Non-GAAP EPS $0.74 ($0.01 beat). • Walmart US comp sales +4.6%. • E-commerce +24% Y/Y. • Advertising +37% Y/Y. FY27 Net sales guide: +3.5% to 4.5% Y/Y. Source: X user App economy What does this tell us about the company and broader economy?  $Wal-Mart(WMT)$  

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