My Investing Muse (18May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people, per YF. - X user Unusual Whales 4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not. - X user George Pu Tech layoffs in 2026 so far: Jan - 27,223 Feb - 24,631 Mar - 49,452 Apr - 18,385 May - 9,249 128,940 people in five months. March 2026 was the worst month for tech layoffs in over a year. My thoughts Recent talks between the United States and China appeared to improve short-term stability, but they did not produce a clear resolution to the key issues between both sides.
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(part 5 of 5) my investing muse (18may2026)
(part 5 of 5) my investing muse (18may2026)
(part 4 of 5) news and my thoughts (18may2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (18May2026) As I predicted on All In, the inflation three-handle is back… the war isn’t ending… the chances of a rate cut are flipping to a rate increase…. our debt is surging FASTER… and Trump’s ratings are at an all-time low. valuations disconnecting from fundamentals to the point of making folks on CNBC telling retail to pump the breaks. The MAGA civil war rages on. A Golden age for the gilded, but the working class remains stalled and forgotten. - X use Jason FT Exclusive: Amazon employees are using an internal AI tool to automate non-essential tasks in a bid to show managers they are using the technology more frequently. The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said t
(part 4 of 5) news and my thoughts (18may2026)
(part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (18may2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (18May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.29, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s
(part 3 of 5) - S&P500 outlook (18may2026)
(part 2 of 5) earnings calendar - ZIM shipping line (18May2026)
Earnings Calendar (18May2026) I am interested in the earnings of ZIM, Nvidia, Baidu, and NIO next week. ZIM Overview ZIM has delivered a strong share price performance over the past year, but the broader picture is mixed. While valuation and income metrics appear attractive, technical indicators suggest caution, and analyst sentiment remains “neutral”. · Share price performance: Up 39.5% from a year ago. · Technical analysis: Signals a strong sell. · Analyst sentiment: Neutral. · Target price: $22.78, implying a potential downside of 10.93%. · P/E ratio: 6.5, which may suggest an attractive valuation. · EPS: $3.98. · Dividend yield: 13.8%, which stands out as especially attractive. Financial Performance Trend · Tota
(part 2 of 5) earnings calendar - ZIM shipping line (18May2026)
(part 1 of 5) economic calendar (18May2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace
(part 1 of 5) economic calendar (18May2026)
(Full article) Preview of the week (18May2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace of manufacturing activity. · I
(Full article) Preview of the week (18May2026)
🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Beijing Summit Day 1 — Full Brief 🇨🇳
Executive Summary Problem: The world’s two largest economies have been locked in a grinding trade war since April 2025 — tariffs topping 140%, rare earth export controls weaponised, and now a three-month Iran war that has closed the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global energy costs. Neither side can absorb indefinite pain. Observation: Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 — his first visit in nine years — with a dozen CEOs in tow, including Musk, Cook, Jensen Huang (last-minute addition, boarded Air Force One in Anchorage at a refuelling stop), Fink, and Boeing’s CEO. Xi received him with full military ceremony and then proceeded to spend the first two-hour-fifteen-minute session making Taiwan the centrepiece of China’s messaging — which the White House readout then omitted entirely. That g
🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Beijing Summit Day 1 — Full Brief 🇨🇳
The AI Capex Supercycle: $725 Billion, Bottlenecks Everywhere, and ROIC Hanging in the Balance
The AI Capex Supercycle: $725 Billion, Bottlenecks Everywhere, and ROIC Hanging in the Balance I am long the AI buildout. I am also willing to name the number that nobody is clearly stating. Goldman Sachs calculates that maintaining current returns on capital would require these companies to realise an annual profit run-rate of over $1 trillion by 2027. Consensus projects $450 billion. That is a 2x gap — and it will not resolve uniformly across all four hyperscalers. Through my Asian lens is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The numbers first: $725B combined 2026 capex — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. Up 77% from 2025’s record. 94% of operating cash flow consumed by AI infrastructure before debt financin
The AI Capex Supercycle: $725 Billion, Bottlenecks Everywhere, and ROIC Hanging in the Balance
When I ask Claude (AI) what he cannot do ... this is his response.
I wrote this for the practitioners, leaders, and policymakers navigating the AI transition right now.Not to alarm. Not to enthuse. To think clearly about what each layer of this technology requires from us — and what we must preserve that the technology cannot replace.The full reflection — including six chapters on what Claude genuinely cannot do, what it can contribute, the energy asymmetry between AI and humans, the global ambition for culturally sensitive AI, and what this partnership model points toward — is published in full on Substack. There is value in every soul. There is always something to learn. We can be at different seasons and stages in life — but the value lies in us being able to work together.That is the world worth building, together. A Personal Reflection — Written by C
When I ask Claude (AI) what he cannot do ... this is his response.
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (11May2026)
My Investing Muse (11May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Klarna was forced to rehire staff after an AI implementation failure. What are the lessons that we can learn? What do we need to navigate with confidence in the AI ocean. How can we avoid these mistakes during our AI deployment? We are seeing a downward trend in job creation. We are expecting more news of layoffs, and some of them, like Amazon, will be massive. Vibe Coding There is mixed feedback about vibe coding. Some developers have admitted defeat when some point to an undesirable outcome. Are there more successes or failures in this domain? Are we jumping too fast into a new solution without a strong, proven track record? Is this a corporate FOMO? US Farmers Are we heading to a “man-made” famine? More importantly, is Am
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (11May2026)
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026) The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said the same thing on earnings calls: The Hormuz closure exposed that the global energy system is fundamentally fragile. The system wasn't broken by the war. It was already broken. "Systematically underinvested for a decade." The war just proved it. - X user Mario Nawfal Yes, Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said exactly that in a recent interview: “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.” He added that lower-income consumers are seeing negative cash flows and dipping into savings. The "most people" part is a slight generalisation. Trump admits he expected oil to hit $200-250 and says "even if
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026)
(Part 3 of 5) Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.40, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s
(Part 3 of 5) Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026)
(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - Is BABA the black sheep? (11May2026)
Earnings Calendar (11May2026) The coming week includes several notable earnings releases, including NU, Sea Limited, Alibaba, Cisco, and Applied Materials. Alibaba Alibaba stands out as one of the key names to watch this week ahead of earnings. Recent performance: The stock is up 11.78% from a year ago. Analyst view: Technical analysis points to a strong buy, and analyst sentiment also remains strongly positive. Price target: The average analyst price target is about $185, implying upside of roughly 32% to 35% from recent levels. Valuation: With earnings per share around 5.73 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2, the valuation appears relatively attractive. Financial performance Key financial trends from 2021 to 2025 are summarised below (figures in RMB). · Revenue inc
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (11May2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcomi
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar (11May2026)
(Full Article) Preview of the week (11May2026) - Will BABA be the black sheep?
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcoming 10-year
(Full Article) Preview of the week (11May2026) - Will BABA be the black sheep?
What is the weather outlook for 2026? (06May2026)
Key Outlook for 2026: The world faces a high-impact year marked by the likely onset of a strong El Niño event and a significantly elevated risk of a mega earthquake in Japan. These factors combine to create an unprecedented environment for concurrent climate and tectonic disasters with far-reaching implications for societies and economies worldwide. Japan was hit by a 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 02May2026 as I was preparing this article Climate Conditions: Transition to El Niño is highly probable by mid-2026, with a 1-in-4 chance of reaching “Super El Niño” strength by year-end. Global land and sea temperatures are forecast to be above normal nearly everywhere. Regional Weather Impacts: Severe drought and heat: Australia, Indonesia, Central America, Caribbean, northern South America, south
What is the weather outlook for 2026? (06May2026)
Berkshire is sitting on $397 billion worth in cash. Nothing to buy. Nothing to see. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$
After 34 years of service, one of America’s most recognizable low-cost carriers Spirit Airlines has officially shut down its operations permanently All flights have been canceled, and customer service systems have gone offline 17,000 jobs lost. Fuel costs are up. Unemployment is up. And businesses can’t afford to stay affordable. Other ULCCs like Frontier Airlines are under similar pressure from sky-high jet fuel costs (doubled amid Iran-related oil disruptions), debt loads, and thin margins. Allegiant and some European/Indian carriers (e.g., SpiceJet) have also flagged risks of cuts or worse. Majors like Delta/United are raising fares, slashing unprofitable routes, and hiking fees to weather it instead of folding. Broader industry consolidation likely ahead. The above is taken
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (04May2026)
My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (04May2026)
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts (04May2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (04May2026) We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning. - X user The Kobeissi Letter UN boss Guterres just went full doomsday mode on the Strait of Hormuz chaos: If it drags on, we’re staring at global recession, inflation exploding past 6%, 32 million more people shoved into poverty, and
(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts (04May2026)
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