I have benefited greatly from being a part of some (international) communities. This was shared by (Facebook user) Bohdan Vorona. This is a quick analysis of TSMC by longtermpick.com. He started with company background info and presented the competition (for cross reference of valuation like P/E, P/S, P/CF ratios). Qualitative strengths and risks were identified with some key ratios. The next was to do a valuation of the company using base, bull and bear cases. While I have mixed thoughts towards (future) valuation, the above example lists the various assumptions in place. These include a 30% margin of safety and a discount rate of 12% based on a 5-year projection (which I prefer over 10 years). He has worked out a 30% Margin of Safety price of $160.02, $196.38 and $123.65 for the respecti

News and my thoughts from last week (16Dec24) US BANK DEPOSITS FELL TO $17.839 TLN FROM $17.906 TLN IN PRIOR WEEK. Image The US budget deficit spiked by a massive $367 billion in November 2024. This was $14 billion above the median expectation of $353 billion. For the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025, the total deficit now stands at $624 BILLION, the highest on record. This is up a staggering 64% from the $380 billion seen last year and above 2020 pandemic levels. To put this into perspective, the budget gap was 3 TIMES lower on average during the 2013-2017 period. The debt crisis is worsening. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Entitlement can bend reality The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to 6.67% from 6.69% Applications to refinance a home loan surged 2

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (16Dec24) Notable Highlights FOMC interest rate decision will be the most watched news in the coming week. The market expects an interest rate cut. A contrary decision is likely to cause some market volatility. The core PCE Price Index will be the next most watched indicator for inflation. This is the preferred reference that the Federal Reserve uses for inflation. Surprises in this can lead to market volatility. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reflects the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index shows the development of the manufacturing sectors in Philadelphia. S&P Global US Se

How to qualify a business? Here's a framework for evaluating a company's financial performance: Income Statement Revenue (or Sales): Evaluation: Look for trends in revenue growth or decline over time. Consistent growth can indicate market demand and business expansion, while erratic or declining revenue might signal market or operational issues. Metric: Year-over-year growth rate. Gross Margin (Gross Profit / Revenue): Evaluation: This shows how much money is left after covering the cost of goods sold (COGS). A stable or increasing gross margin suggests good cost control or pricing power. Metric: Percentage change in gross margin. Net Income: Evaluation: The bottom line shows overall profitability. It's important to understand what drives changes in net income, whether it's operational eff

My Investing Muse (09Dec24) Layoffs & Closure news Intel's biggest revenue decline in five quarters to hit amid broad layoffs and missed AI boom - Calcalitech.com UK-based wealth manager St James’s Place is planning to cut about 500 jobs in an attempt to reduce costs under chief executive Mark FitzPatrick. - FT Cargill plans to cut around 5% of global employees, internal memo says - Yahoo Finance Layoffs could be companies trimming their fats or their efforts to stay afloat. This may not always be bad news. Image US restaurant bankruptcies are accelerating: There have now been 14 bankruptcies in restaurant chains with $20+ million in revenue this year, the highest number since 2020. This is up 133% compared to 2022 when 6 large chains with at least $20 million in annual revenue went ba

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (09Dec24) Notable Highlights The most watched macro data will be the Core CPI and CPI data. This is one of the references for inflation. This would be closely watched data as the Federal Reserve is likely to have this as part of the consideration for the coming interest rate decision in Dec 2024. The next important economic data will be PPI. This represents the inflation that hit producers/manufacturers - an amount that is likely to translate into inflation for the consumers when their products hit the shelves. This can be seen as a prelude to CPI (inflation). If there is an increase in PPI, the impact will also be seen in CPI. The 1