I am seeing higher probability that Chinese tech stocks have made their bottoms and same for hang Seng tech index, which recently touched above 4660 and ended around 4500 this week.

However, for every probability that I ascribe for my own assessment, I believe that it is not a 100 percent certainty that it will happen. China still has to play it's cards right in terms of execution which remains as the biggest risk card to me.

Why did I say so? So far if I did not recall wrongly, there are 3 times for which conferences were held by NDRC, etc etc and other state authorities but there are no single measures that lay out clearly the execution plan and the figures to bring about the excitement of consumer spending.

Domestic spending still remains the most difficult piece of the puzzle. In Us, domestic spending makes up around 2/3 of the us gdp but for china, this remains a figure much lower. Coupled with high youth unemployment rate and lower business and global investors' confidence, the surge in spending is unlikely to come. This is also why I have repeatedly mentioned that the authorities have to take the lead to spend and excite the consumers to spend..

The lack of details reflects the lack of abilities or substance? I do not know but having repeated conferences without any meaningful details will eventually cause the loss of global investors confidence and further hit the consumer and business confidence.

Netease had risen above 100 USD whereas JD is around 39 USD. Tencent at around 343 hkd and Baba at around 97 USD are showing that the resistance for Chinese tech has not been broken and if disappointment comes again and again, not only will we not see the high of hang Seng tech exceeding 5300, we may retest back the recent low of around 3700. This is something that I really dread to see but china should act on it fast. Really fast.

The safe zone is not safe yet!

As always, this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.

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