Options Spy: diet drugs are the new AI, institutions strong "bottom" Lilly

The market continues to focus on economic data. The U.S. consumer price index for August will be released on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index and retail sales the following day, which will be a test for U.S. stocks.

The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.2 percent in July, the first increase in more than a year, and the market expects the increase to expand to 3.6 percent in August. The annual rate of core CPI, however, likely eased slightly from 4.7 percent in July.

If the CPI report is broadly as expected, the focus will shift to PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Analysts predict surprisingly strong consumer spending in the third quarter could be the most important factor in prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in September or November, putting retail sales in particular focus.

Apple will hold the autumn new product launch conference in the early morning of Beijing time on Tuesday (12), the iPhone is the highlight, foreign media reported that Apple will be in accordance with the practice of previous years, the iPhone 15, 15 Plus, 15 Pro and Pro Max, rather than the previously speculated Pro Ultra model.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday she is increasingly confident the U.S. economy will be able to make a soft landing, which means containing inflation without causing significant damage to the labor market.

Yellen noted that all measures of inflation are falling. While the U.S. unemployment rate rose in August after hitting a new low at the start of the year, it was not caused by mass layoffs. The unemployment rate hit 3.8 percent last month, in part because the labor force participation rate rose to its highest level since February 2020, just before the coronavirus outbreak.

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Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$SNOW 20231117 155.0 PUT$ $GS 20230915 350.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$GSK 20231117 38.0 CALL$ $KVUE 20231020 20.0 PUT$

Other tech stocks:

$INTC 20230915 38.5 CALL$ $BABA 20231215 65.0 PUT$

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$ closed up 5.5% at $36.55. The rise in the share price can be attributed to GSK's encouraging sales performance so far this year, particularly in its vaccines division. The company will launch Arexvy, an RSV vaccine, in the coming fall.

$Kenvue Inc(KVUE)$ Deutsche Bank raised its rating on KVUE to "buy" from "hold," saying the stock is "oversold" and still has room to rise in the near term.

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba's board of directors has accepted Daniel Zhang's request to step down as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Cloud, and the chairman and CEO of Alibaba Cloud will be concurrently held by Group CEO Wu Yongming from now on.

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$LLY 20250117 580.0 PUT$ $AMZN 20231215 150.0 PUT$

Sell TOP Vol:：

$ACI 20230915 24.0 CALL$ $KVUE 20231020 24.0 CALL$

Other tech stocks:

$PYPL 20231027 54.0 PUT$ $INTC 20230915 38.5 CALL$

$Eli Lilly(LLY)$ According to jpmorgan's latest forecast, annual sales of GLP-1 drugs under the Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly duopoly will exceed $100 billion by 2030. ZeroHedge, a financial blog, called "diet pills are the new AI."

Lilly last month reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter and first half of 2023. Lilly's first-half revenue was $15.272 billion, up 7% from a year earlier, the data showed. Revenue in the second quarter was $8.312 billion, up 28% from a year earlier. The GLP-1 dual-target drug Tirzepatide showed strong performance, and Tirzepatide continued to increase volume after being approved by the FDA in May 2022, with sales of $1.548 billion in the first half of 2023. Lilly expects sales of the drug to top $4 billion in 2023. Lilly also updated its 2023 guidance in this quarterly earnings report. It increased its guidance by $2.2 billion and expects full-year revenue of $33.4 billion to $33.9 billion.

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.