1. What's Happening Today Rates Side Leans Pressured, But Tech Sees Selective Catalysts. TLT Falls for a Second Consecutive Day: Treasury yields continue rising, with the market repricing roughly 40bp of cumulative hikes this year. The probability of an October FOMC hike has risen to about 70%. QQQ Rebounds, Crude Oil Pulls Back: The U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy supply risks. AI Infrastructure Diverges: ORCL delayed payment arrangements for its Jupiter data center project, and ARM weakened on Jupiter order exposure. Anthropic signed a 7-year CPU capacity commitment with AKAM, lifting AKAM, INTC, and AMD. IWM: Currently stuck at the 30-week MA. Watch today whether it retests the 60-week MA or reclaims the 30-week MA. 2. What Money Is

1. What's Happening Today Middle East Risk Escalates: U.S.-Iran talks remain deadlocked, the Strait of Hormuz shows no prospect of reopening, and Brent has broken above $100 again. Long-End Rates Rising: U.S. 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with the market re-trading the "higher rates for longer / further hikes" narrative. AI Entry-Point Competition Heats Up: Meta positions Muse as its core consumer AI product, targeting 1 billion users; OpenAI is rumored to launch a personal Agent as soon as this week; Google, threatened by AI Agents, fell 3.8% yesterday. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against Defending Against Two Things: Oil Prices + Tech Pullback. 🟠 Buy Side VIX | 2026/12/16 14 Call — 25,600 contracts.

1. What's Happening Today U.S.-Iran Resume Contact, Oil Prices Pull Back: The U.S. and Iran have resumed contact since June, Saudi Arabia is gradually restoring some crude supply, and Brent has fallen back below $100, increasing near-term pressure on the energy sector. Burry Adds to AI/Memory Shorts: Michael Burry has expanded short positions in MU, NBIS, PLTR, and others. The core concern is that after new memory supply is released, prices may come under pressure. AI Theme Still Burning: NVDA still saw short-dated Call buying yesterday, with the market continuing to trade AI capex and semiconductor demand. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Energy Defense + Policy Offense + Short-Term AI XOP | 2026/11/20 175 Put 9,000 contracts, $5.175 million. Open interest was o

1. What's Happening Today Meta Surges 11.4%: AI agent Muse tops the U.S. App Store free chart, and the market has begun trading the impact of AI Agents on consumer entry points and transaction scenarios. Semiconductors Rally in Sync: AMD, Intel, and Arm rose nearly 10%, 12%, and 17% respectively, as the market extends the trade to CPU inference demand driven by Agents. AI Commercialization Diverges: Shopify integrates Muse, while Amazon restricts its proxy-purchasing feature citing security and data access concerns. Alibaba Cloud Signals Expansion: Based on management's plans, Citi estimates Alibaba's external cloud revenue could reach $160 billion by FY2033. Middle East Energy Risk Escalates: Geopolitical tensions and energy shipping news are disrupting oil prices — watch the energy secto

I. Key Events Fed Delivers 25bp September Hike; Dot Plot Signals Room for More Hikes This Year The federal funds target range rose to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. The median dot plot shows a year-end 2026 rate of 4.1%. Historical patterns suggest IT sector outperformance in a shallow hiking environment. Crude Oil: Record Inventory Draws, But Prices Pull Back Sharply Global oil inventories are declining at a record pace, yet crude oil pulled back sharply on both Wednesday and Thursday, with front-month WTI breaking below its 10-day MA. The divergence between fundamentals and price is worth noting. NBis: GPU Cloud Services Raise Prices Across the Board by ~20% Effective October 1, NBis GPU cloud services are raising prices across the board by approximately 20%, sending th

I. Key Events Wednesday FOMC: Market Consensus Expects a "Dovish Hike" The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday. The market is highly consensus-aligned in expecting a dovish hike — a 25bp increase without signaling a future rate path. → If delivered: the negative is exhausted, and risk appetite may recover. But such a unanimous expectation also means the positive is already priced in — beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" gap-up-and-sell-off dynamics. Combined with the 9/18 Triple Witching convergence, directional flexibility is limited this week. SK Hynix × Intel: In Talks for First U.S.-Based Memory Chip Production The news pushed INTC and Hynix higher pre-market, before Hynix clarified that "no conclusion has been reached," trimming gains. For INTC, watch t

I. Key Events Friday 9/18 Triple Witching: Massive Open Interest Expiring Stock prices tend to converge toward the largest open interest zones (Gamma pinning effect). For specifics, refer to individual stock options GEX analysis (⚠️ note the App upgrade). → Directional flexibility is limited this week, making range-bound/seller strategies more suitable. Software ETF (IGV) Surges 5%, Cybersecurity Leads JPMorgan believes AI is pushing cybersecurity from "optional spending" to "mandatory investment." Watch for pullback opportunities in PANW and CRWD. Crude Oil Maintains High-Level Volatility Above 100 Trump stated on 9/14 that "Iran is eager to reach a deal, and the U.S. is open to it." → A de-escalation signal; oil's upward momentum may weaken — watch for a spike-and-retreat. Citi: Wednesda

I. Key Events August CPI Lands: Rate Hike All But Certain, Market Dips Then Rebounds August CPI came in at +0.4% MoM (in line with expectations), while core CPI rose +0.3% MoM (above the expected 0.2%). The market is now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the 9/18 FOMC meeting, and expects two hikes this year. Following the data release, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin all dipped before rebounding — the rate-hike expectation has already been priced in → the negative is exhausted, and the decline has halted. Sell Puts on dips are viable. Oil Spikes Then Retreats: Breaks $100, Then Falls Back Below Meanwhile, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures trading limits: intraday opening positions for SC2610 and SC26

I. Key Events ECB Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points, U.S. Stocks Fall Pre-Market The ECB rate hike has raised expectations for a U.S. rate hike, pressuring U.S. equities pre-market. Tomorrow (Friday) brings the CPI release — focus on whether core inflation MoM exceeds 0.2%. A beat would further strengthen rate-hike bets. Brent Crude Surges Pre-Market, Breaks Above $100 Trump said during Wednesday's session that the Iran conflict will end immediately after the midterm elections, and oil prices will plunge (midterms are on November 3). The rhythm: short-term geopolitical push higher, but a pullback catalyst has already been pre-announced — beware of a pullback after an overshoot. TSMC (TSM): August Revenue +10.1% MoM, +53.3% YoY Fundamentals are strong, but rate-hike expectations carry more wei

I. Key Events U.S.-Iran Confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz Intensifies Sharply, with Brent crude briefly breaking above $100/barrel. Based on past patterns, the likely sequence is: Trump further escalates tensions and makes hawkish statements → oil prices return to previous highs or even push to new highs → a compromise or deal is reached between the two sides → oil prices pull back. The rhythm is rally first, then decline — chasing highs requires caution against a potential pullback from a resolution. META: New Personal AI Agent "MUSE" Launches — capable of handling daily tasks, with the app rising to #4 in the App Store rankings, driving the stock up 5% pre-market. Even if the market response fades after launch day, the effect takes time to fully play out — until then, the market will

I. One-Sentence Market View August nonfarm payrolls came in significantly above expectations, dragging down gold and Bitcoin. However, the release of the GPT-6 Astra foundational model — marking the dawn of the AGI era — triggered a rebound in the memory sector. This Friday's CPI data will likely be the decisive factor for the September 18 FOMC rate decision. In addition to macro and industry influences, the S&P 500 has historically underperformed in September — shareholders may consider covered call strategies to enhance returns this month. II. This Week's Event Calendar Monday, September 7: U.S. markets closed for Labor Day. Tuesday, September 8: No major events. Wednesday, September 9: No major events. Thursday, September 10: CPI: August CPI data released at 8:30 AM ET. Expected: +3

I. Key Events AVGO (Broadcom): Down 3% on Guidance Miss Q3 results slightly beat market expectations, Q4 in line, with clear FY2027/FY2028 outlook provided. However, FY2027 revenue guidance of $115 billion fell short of the market's $130 billion expectation; FY2028 expectations, in contrast, far exceeded Wall Street consensus. Growth is heavily dependent on Anthropic and OpenAI, introducing significant uncertainty to the outlook. Key level to watch: whether the stock pulls back to the 20-month MA at 320. SNOW (Snowflake): Surged 23% on Accelerating Growth Annual revenue growth is accelerating, with Q3 revenue growth of 37–38% (above market expectations of 30%), and full-year guidance raised from 31% to 36%. There may be further upside in the coming months. Approach: watch for Sell Put oppo

I. Key Events DELL (Dell Technologies): Guidance Beat, But Be Cautious of Sustainability FY2027 EPS guidance was raised by 40%, significantly beating expectations. However, caution is warranted — such high growth from a beat may itself be unsustainable; watch for realization risk. HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise): Earnings After Close Earnings are expected to be solid, with this week's implied volatility range at 45–55. However, weighed down by macro headwinds, the stock is likely to gap up and then sell off. A dual-sell strategy (Sell Put + Sell Call) to capture volatility could be considered. AVGO (Broadcom): Earnings After Close Implied volatility range is 335–400. The market is concerned about market share loss at GOOGL (Google) and the lack of clear FY27 guidance, leaning bearish. How

I. Key Events Rates and Dollar Both Rise, Risk Assets Broadly Decline: U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rebounded again, the dollar index strengthened, and U.S. equities pulled back, with Bitcoin, gold, and Hong Kong stocks all under pressure simultaneously. Geopolitical Disruption Lifts Oil Prices: Two very large crude carriers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher again. However, options flow shows large sell call openings on energy names expiring toward year-end, suggesting producers remain cautious on the upside for oil prices. DELL Earnings (Tuesday After Close): Expected to raise full-year guidance. II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals) VIX$VIX 20270317 47.5 CALL$ Buy Call, strike 47.5,

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 This table answers: Where the stock price is likely to be this week (the range). Whether the seller premium is expensive right now (IV percentile rank). How far out the strike price should be placed to stay safe (Column 8). The ranges calculated in this table are like "probability of rain," not a "guarantee of no rain." The usage is simple: place the sell put strike price further below the lower end of the range. The higher the percentile rank, the more favorable it is for sellers. 📊 Noteworthy Points AVGO has the highest implied weekly move (8.09%, IV 49%): an earnings stock this week, with the la

One-sentence theme: Low volatility is the calm before the storm — VIX block trades are betting on a volatility rebound, and the upcoming jobs report (Friday) could trigger a pullback regardless of whether the data is good or bad. I. Sentiment Focus: A Turning Point Is Approaching Friday Nonfarm Payrolls → Rate-Hike Expectation Trade (Key Variable) The data will be released one hour before the open, with expectations of August nonfarm payrolls at +58,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. ⚠️ Regardless of the data, the market could pull back: if weak = economic softness; if strong = rate hikes ahead — a lose-lose scenario. Gold and Bitcoin are expected to trend weaker before September 18 (rate-hike expectations weighing on sentiment). VIX Block Trade: Betting "Low Volatility Is About to End" VIX 10/