The 2-year note fell 22 basis points to 4.82 percent, while the 10-year note fell 19 basis points to 4.44 percent.
On the data front, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly fell across the board in October, with the CPI rising 3.2% year-on-year, below analysts' estimate of 3.3%, and the core CPI rising 4% year-on-year, the lowest in more than two years, which means that inflation is moving in the right direction and investors will continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further.
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The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote that the new data helped reassure investors that the Fed may not raise rates again. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders saw the report reducing the likelihood of a December rate hike, with a 99 percent chance that the federal funds rate would hold steady at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, with the first cut expected in May.
On the political and economic front, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said U.S. inflation is cooling at perhaps the fastest pace in at least 40 years or more, while unemployment is rising only modestly.
Fed Governor Philip Jefferson noted that depending on how long high inflation is likely to last, Fed officials may need to take more forceful action to anchor inflation expectations.
With inflation at 3.2 percent and unemployment at 3.9 percent, Richmond Fed President Michael Barr said the U.S. has emerged from a virus-induced recession, but the Fed's job of fighting inflation is "not done yet."
With a government shutdown looming, House Speaker Jeb Johnson expressed optimism on Tuesday about securing passage of a two-stage "continuation appropriations" (CR) stopgap funding measure to prevent a shutdown.
Ratings agency Moody's cut its outlook on the U.S. credit rating from "stable" to "negative" last week, in part because of doubts about the federal government's ability to implement effective fiscal policy, and bipartisan negotiations are under way this week. Analysts are now optimistic there is a 40 percent chance of a shutdown on Friday, with some Democrats expected to support the measure.
Global oil demand continues to exceed expectations despite economic concerns, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said as it raised its demand growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024.
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FANNG option active
$Apple(AAPL)$ Buy a CALL and buy a PUT $AAPL 20241220 275.0 CALL$ $AAPL 20231229 175.0 PUT$
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Buy PUT option $TSLA 20231201 245.0 PUT$
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Sell calls and sell puts $NVDA 20231124 492.5 CALL$ $NVDA 20240517 500.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20241220 500.0 PUT$
Option buyer open position (Single leg)
Buy TOP T/O:
$UBER 20250117 52.5 PUT$ $JNJ 20231117 160.0 PUT$
Buy TOP Vol:
$PTEN 20240119 10.0 PUT$ $CHPT 20231117 3.0 PUT$
$Cameco(CCJ)$ Andrew Wong of Royal Bank of Canada said he sees the Westinghouse acquisition and future investments as "a pathway to create a full-service nuclear power company that can compete globally and benefit from increased investment in the sector," coupled with a tight uranium market supporting higher prices by 2035. Cameco's (CCJ) EBITDA is likely to more than double. Wong believes Cameco's (CCJ) ability to offer a full-service model without geopolitical entanglements is a competitive advantage: Cameco and Westinghouse together form the second largest uranium producer, the third largest conversion supplier and the largest fuel manufacturer, doing business with approximately 50% of the world's reactors and supplying the widely used Gen 3+AP1000 reactors. $CCJ 20231229 50.0 CALL$
Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.
Option seller open position (Single leg)
Sell TOP T/O:
$GS 20240119 340.0 CALL$ $AMD 20240621 150.0 CALL$
Sell TOP Vol:
$ITUB 20240119 6.0 PUT$ $SE 20240119 30.0 PUT$
Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.
Options portfolio open position
Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.
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