I remember that in November last year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike reached nearly 5%. The market generally believed that the US economy would fall into recession in the next quarter of next year (2023), and the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates.
One year has passed, and the same logic has reappeared at the same time. However, the current Fed interest rate is indeed a little higher than that of the same period last year, and there is less room for continuing the rate hike, so the interest rate cut cycle is indeed easier to happen.
However, the financial market is always eager to cut interest rates tomorrow, so the atmosphere is always full, but the actual actions are always behind the market expectations. It is estimated that the rhetoric of this week's Fed interest rate meeting is throwing cold water on interest rate cuts, so everyone should get used to it.
Next week, the CPI will be released the day before the interest rate meeting, and the interest rate cut party is constantly looking for the signal that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. If last week's non-farm data failed to get what it wanted (better than expected), it will focus on the CPI data. If the CPI data drops more than expected, the commodity market bulls will speculate again.
CPI and Fed meeting have little impact on US stocks
Frankly speaking, there is nothing to say about US stocks market. For US stocks, as long as there is no big problem with the economic data, it will be difficult for the US stock index to fall sharply.
August-October, the highest risk, has passed, and the rest of the time can follow the market. Technically, the U.S. stock index is still moving up along the 20-day moving average, so in the short term, we can use this moving average as an important indicator for bulls to track and stop profits, and we will discuss whether to adjust it when it falls below it.
Precious metal market tracking
Last week, the biggest fluctuation was precious metals. Gold price broke through 2100 pulses to 2155, and then fell sharply on the same day.
Silver dropped by 10% last week, which made most people stunned by the precious metals market. Although the price of gold fluctuates greatly, compared with the increase since October, the decline is really nothing. At present, the price of gold is still in the technical state of stepping back on the neckline in technical analysis, and the key depends on whether there will be any further decline this week. After all, there will be CPI and interest rate meeting next week.
Oil price has reached the KEY line again
Oil prices have dropped to around $70 to start a game. The increase in US production has prompted the oil price to continue to fall. Below US $70 is an important action indicator for the United States to replenish its strategic oil reserves.
At present, some actions have been taken, so there is little motivation for the oil price to fall again, but it can't be said how good it is. It is just a bottom shock, waiting for the next important news point. Technically, oil prices are still on the long-term 60-month (5-year) moving average to see if there is a big double dip, but we will have to see it again next year.
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