Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d

Following the conclusion of the China-US summit in Busan, South Korea, the trade war between the two countries has effectively been put on pause, providing a "reassuring measure" for the global economy. The 24% retaliatory tariffs have been suspended for one year. This one-year suspension is significant because it coincides with the upcoming US midterm elections, and there remains considerable uncertainty whether the Republican Party, led by Trump, will maintain control over both chambers of Congress, which will directly impact the trajectory of US trade negotiations. From the current perspective, at least for one year the market's worries about China-US trade frictions can greatly ease. With the exception of precious metals, this is generally positive news for other asset classes.The succ

As the end of the month approaches and the November 1 deadline for the US to impose significant tariffs on China looms, the US is increasingly eager to engage in trade talks with China. At this stage, continuing to raise tariffs would harm the US more than benefit it, thus giving China the upper hand in negotiations. Starting this week, information and outcomes from both sides' negotiations will gradually emerge. While a comprehensive deal is unlikely in one round, some progress is expected, which will help revive global trade.China-US Talks to Boost Commodity PricesThe tariff policies previously caused significant disruption in global trade and economics. As negotiations between these two major economies advance, market reactions to tariffs have become less reactive. Although tariff issue

With the U.S. government still shut down and no sign of a deal, the standoff could break duration records and prolong risk sentiment, whose economic impact remains to be seen but is unlikely to fade quickly in the near term. Hopes that the Israel–Gaza conflict might cool were dashed by fresh airstrikes in Gaza over the weekend, underscoring that peace will not be achieved overnight and that safe-haven demand may be repeatedly rekindled, fueling large price swings driven by sentiment rather than trend change. In such an environment, countertrend trading requires extra caution because volatility in a sentiment-led market does not automatically mean the underlying trend has reversed.​Has precious metals topped?Drawing on years of futures-market experience, the piece notes that while every squ

The U.S. government has once again fallen into a shutdown, with no signs of resolution so far. Market expectations estimate the shutdown will last between 15 to 29 days. Although this is not the first shutdown the U.S. government has faced, the market remains relatively calm for now. However, the shutdown delays the release of many critical economic data, preventing the Federal Reserve from making informed policy decisions based on the latest economic indicators. This uncertainty clouds the path toward interest rate cuts, leaving the market to continue operating along the current trend.Impact of the Shutdown on U.S. Stock IndexesThe longer the shutdown lasts, the more significant the damage to the U.S. economy will be. This is almost unimaginable in China, given the much broader government

The Resumption of Interest Rate Cuts and the Narrowing US-China Interest Rate Differential Continue to Attract Capital Inflows to ChinaThe Federal Reserve has finally started cutting interest rates again after much anticipation. There are various interpretations in the market—some believe the cut was less than expected (not a 50 basis points cut), while others view it positively. Regardless of interpretation, one fact must be clear: the Fed has indeed cut interest rates. With US rates declining, the interest rate differential between China and the US will narrow, unless the People's Bank of China follows with analogous rate cuts. This narrowing differential likely sustains the ongoing appreciation of the renminbi.Renminbi Appreciation Cycle ContinuesBack in April, it was noted that this ye

Next week marks the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting. Due to the significantly lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll data in August and September, the focus of the Fed’s meeting will be on the magnitude of the rate cut. A 25 basis point cut is market-expected and can be understood as a hawkish cut, not necessarily positive news. A 50 basis point cut would slightly exceed market expectations, so attention should be paid to the Fed Chair’s speech to judge the path and speed of further cuts. If large-scale cuts continue, the market will likely respond enthusiastically.How will U.S. stock indices react to the Fed meeting?Although weak economic data puts fundamental pressure on U.S. stock indices, the considerable room for rate cuts by the Fed means the market has not yet priced i

The latest nonfarm payroll report, released last Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, mirrored the prior month’s disappointing data, significantly missing market expectations and accompanied by downward revisions of previous figures. This reinforced market anticipation that the Fed would begin cutting rates in September, with CME and Bloomberg markets pricing in three 25bps rate cuts this year. Historically, the Fed has refrained from easing because of a robust U.S. economy, implying no urgent need for rate adjustments. However, the sharp downward revision in nonfarm employment raises the probability of rate cuts while simultaneously reviving fears of an economic recession in the U.S. that had been looming for two years. This dual effect led to a bifurcated market respo

Next week marks the first week of September, and since September 1 is the U.S. Labor Day holiday, the market will be closed for one day. Although electronic trading will still take place, it is expected that volatility will remain relatively subdued, and the market trends may not be reliable.It is advisable to observe more and act less during this period. When trading resumes after the holiday, it will usher in the key U.S. data week at the beginning of the month, accompanied once again by the impact of large-scale non-tradable shareholder (big and small 'non') movements. Although nonfarm payroll data is released monthly and should be routine, the current market expectations have priced in that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates at the September meeting, with even aggres

Last Friday night, at the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks that diverged from what many in the market had expected. Instead of projecting a strongly “hawkish” stance, Powell softened his tone and stated:“Since policy is already in restrictive territory, given changes in the outlook and the balance of risks, it may be necessary to adjust our policy stance.”This was widely interpreted as a clear signal that the Fed is preparing to cut rates in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month has risen to 89%. Unless there is a major surprise in the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at the beginning of September, the path toward renewed rate cuts seems almost certain.1.

Last Friday’s US-Russia talks failed to produce any “decisive” outcomes. The United States still requires coordination with the European Union and Ukraine for further discussions. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term. However, the secondary sanctions on purchasing Russian crude oil are expected to ease somewhat. This outcome was largely anticipated by the market, so it did not cause significant surprise. Looking ahead to next week, the key focus will be whether there are confirmed plans for trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine.Additionally, starting next Wednesday, the World Central Banks Annual Meeting will be held over three days. Market attention will center on the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech at this event. Given Jerome Powe

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the first presidential meeting between the United States and Russia has taken place, with the main topic being how to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the talks themselves may not yield significant progress, the content and the subsequent developments are critically important, including for the direction of crude oil prices.1. Trump's $64 Price LevelPreviously, Trump indicated that he was quite satisfied with an oil price of $64 per barrel, revealing his attitude toward controlling oil prices and his psychological target price. Unless driven by specific political needs or economic collapse, as an oil-producing nation, a price that is too low is not favorable for encouraging domestic U.S. oil producers to increase investment in explorat

Last week saw two major events: first, the Federal Reserve’s meeting to set the benchmark interest rate, and second, the release of the nonfarm payroll data, both of which were crucial for the market to price in expectations for rate cuts. The Fed meeting outcome was largely uneventful. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained firm on not lowering rates, despite two board members voting against the decision—a dissent that the market had already anticipated. Therefore, Wednesday night’s market fluctuation was limited. As for expectations around this week’s nonfarm data, there were few surprises. Although the current data was below expectations, it was still within a normal range. What caught most people off guard, however, was the sharp downward revision in the previous nonfarm data. Such revisions

The anticipated July Federal Reserve policy meeting is upon us. There are two main points of interest for this session: First, whether the Fed might unexpectedly cut rates earlier than expected (which is considered unlikely), and second, the degree of dissent among committee members regarding the rate decision. While the likelihood of an early rate cut is low, it’s notable that “the Boss” recently visited the Fed and publicly pressured Chairman Powell to lower rates. The market largely expects the first rate cut to come in September; if it happens as early as July, it would suggest these political pressures were effective and that further cuts might accelerate. Regarding committee votes, if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, attention will turn to how many policymakers dissent. A high level of