Last week, under the news that the conflict in the Middle East eased, gold and silver bulls showed signs of cashing in profits, which triggered a sharp correction in gold and silver prices. The 5-day moving average tracking is very effective. After the "squeeze" trend of gold prices, falling below the 5-day moving average will often trigger a relatively large correction, and the correction is started by a single-day sharp drop, so last week's decline is very close to the previous trend, and it will break through 2450 again It takes a longer time to accumulate energy and cooperate with the news. The current gold and silver prices have entered a turbulent mode. Of course, turmoil is not a bad thing, especially for silver prices. After the turmoil falls, it will be a good time to enter the ma

On Friday, Israel appeared to be about to "retaliate" against Iran, causing crude oil and gold prices to soar and US stocks to plummet. Although both Israel and Iran soon came out to clarify, the Iranian side said that it intercepted the drone that attacked and did not cause too much loss, which caused a sharp retreat in the follow-up market.This phenomenon shows that the two sides of the conflict do not want to make things too big, but the financial market does not seem to buy the result, and the price fluctuation suddenly becomes very manic.The impact of the conflict on the US stock indexThe widening situation in the Middle East has weakened the market's sensitivity to news of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased concerns about war fears. Although there was a sharp rebound on Friday

The biggest event of the weekend was Iran's attack on Israel. I don't know if you have noticed that many incidents this year tend to happen on weekends, as agreed.If this attack occurs in the middle of the week, I am afraid that financial Market fluctuations are definitely not small. And if it happens on the weekend, there is enough time for countries to appease market sentiment. I believe that when the market opens on Monday, the financial market will be much more rational.Looking back at Iran's attack on Israel, in fact, Iran is also well-known. After all, Israel first attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, and then it attracted Iran's counterattack. We do not agree with military retaliation, but Iran's attack on Israel is generally expected. Inside the incident, and after the attack, Ir

At the beginning of each month, the focus of the market will always be on non-farm data. Especially recently, everyone has been keeping a close eye on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and the impact of economic data on market fluctuations is very important. Friday night's non-farm data greatly exceeded market expectations. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, far higher than the 200,000 predicted by economists and the 270,000 in February, the largest increase since May last year. But what is even more surprising is that U.S. stocks rose unexpectedly after a short decline, and gold continued to hit a record high, which made many investors feel at a loss. This phenomenon of completel

There is no suspense in the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting last week, and Powell's speech after the meeting is also dovish. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year and reduce the QT rhythm at the same time. Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected by the market, at least the current doves expect already has sufficient pricing, so the sensitivity of the follow-up market to the news of interest rate cuts will be relatively reduced. The integrity of the capital market will be weaker than before.When the expectation of interest rate cut becomes closer and closer, the market's reaction to the news will become more dull, and even fluctuate in reverse (all the good news is bad), so the financial market wil

With the release of various economic data in the United States and the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairman and major officials, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June has been extremely extreme.When we have been used to the good news, the small bad news will be particularly dazzling, which is exactly the case in the current market. March-May is another pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut path. The rate cut is not as fast as expected, and the market will also fall into shock, with different impacts on various commodities.First, the price of varieties with sufficient interest rate cut expectations began to fluctuateThe varieties whose price fluctuation is closely related to the expectation of interest rate cut are the varieties that have fully

Just entering March, in the absence of obvious special news, gold, US stocks and crude oil all rose sharply last Friday night, not to mention the rapid upward trend of Bitcoin a few days ago. This trend of market resonance shows that besides believing in the expectation of interest rate cut, the market began to gradually believe that inflation is coming again, which leads to the strange phenomenon that interest rate cut and inflation coexist. Theoretically, when inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has no incentive to cut interest rates. However, with the current high bond stock of the Federal Reserve (with a total loss of US $114.3 billion last year), it will take about four years to "turn losses" even if the interest rate is cut now. Therefore, the market believes that the interest rate

With the announcement of the resignation of the Palestinian government, the tension in the Middle East seems to have eased relatively. Although it is still not optimistic that the conflict in Gaza will end here, such emergencies usually prolong the ceasefire, so the upward momentum for oil prices is weakened, making the trend still tangled. In fact, this result is not unexpected. At present, WTI crude oil still fluctuates along the edge of the 20-week moving average.If it can break through 79, the price will be the support for a period of time in the future. If it cannot break through, it is normal to bottom out 70 or even fall below 70 again. After all, the oil price environment is a broad volatile market in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation of $10 is only a swing rather tha

Looking at the tourism data of the Spring Festival, it is estimated that everyone has a good time this Spring Festival, so the market expectation next week will make us continue to be happy.During the Spring Festival this year, it should be regarded as the calmest Spring Festival market in recent years. The trend of various varieties is generally tepid, and there is no amazing fluctuation, which means that the fluctuation will be concentrated in the post-holiday market.During the Spring Festival, there are two biggest news highlights. One is the birth of sora, which will continue to boost the performance of AI stocks; Second, the Russian army has completely controlled the city of Avdeevka, an important defense hub in Ukraine. The victory of this strategic place means that Russia's control

This year's first meeting on interest rates has ended, and the wording is almost consistent with market expectations, while the unexpected non-farm data has greatly delayed the market's expectation of rate cut this year, which is basically consistent with the situation that I expected to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, these data are enough to affect the market trend in the next two months or so until the interest rate meeting in March, so everyone should not be too optimistic about the market in the next two months.First, the trend of the US stock indexNon-farm exceeded expectations, which suppressed the expectation of rate cut, but it was also a signal of strong economy, so it was not bad for the trend of US stock index that day. However,

The first FOMC meeting this year will be held in the early morning of Thursday, January 31. The market is almost sure that the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates in January, but everyone is concerned about the wording after the interest rate cut meeting, which will affect the interest rate cut probability of the FOMC meeting in March. At present, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March is still 50-50, so the January meeting, which was not so important in previous years, becomes particularly critical, because it will affect the market speculation expectation in the next two months, while the doves are full of interest rate cut expectations in March, while the hawks are likely to continue to toss about 50-50.After the interest rate meeting in January,

In 2024, the chaos in the world has not eased well, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues. The new Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea crisis all show that this year's geopolitics is difficult to be completely solved. Under this background, oil prices are likely to replicate the 22-year Russian-Ukrainian conflict and fluctuate in pulses.First, WTI oil price line of $70Among the three major oil-producing countries that determine oil prices, Saudi Arabia, together with OPEC and Russia, are currently reducing production to carry oil prices. Although the degree of internal unity is hard to say, the impact of the crash in 2020 is still vivid, and the production reduction alliance will still be United front as a whole, at least not suddenly open to increase production, so oil pri

Just like the US dollar cycle shared with you in the previous post, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve enters the interest rate cut cycle. The interest rate cut means that the US Dollar Index has entered the later stage of the depreciation cycle. At this stage, it will be relatively easier to go long . As a precious metal negatively related to the US Dollar Index sensitivity, it is the key variety to do more.First, the technical status of goldThere is nothing to say about the fundamentals of precious metals at present, because there is not much bad news at all. The Red Sea attack in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict benefits gold in terms of risk aversion, the depreciation cycle of the US dollar benefits gold at the monetary level, and the major central banks increase th

I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year's Day!This week is the last trading week in 2023. There is no important data and most traders are in holidays, so the market is expected to be relatively quiet. However, after the end of this week, next month will be an annual series of investment foresight posts . If you want to know the key trading opportunities next year, please pay more attention.Returning to the current market, the market is already looking forward to the Fed's interest rate cut next year. The only difference lies in the number of interest rate cuts. Although some investment institutions have expected the US stock market to collapse next year, they still suggest that you read less reports and more market conditions, because "risk" is potential, only when and how to d

I remember that in November last year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike reached nearly 5%. The market generally believed that the US economy would fall into recession in the next quarter of next year (2023), and the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates. One year has passed, and the same logic has reappeared at the same time. However, the current Fed interest rate is indeed a little higher than that of the same period last year, and there is less room for continuing the rate hike, so the interest rate cut cycle is indeed easier to happen. However, the financial market is always eager to cut interest rates tomorrow, so the atmosphere is always full, but the actual actions are always behind the market expectations. It is estimated that the rhetoric of this week's Fed interest rate meeti