Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

The market initially seemed to expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption to fade quickly, much like last year’s Iranian missile retaliation, but that has not happened. Shipping disruptions have persisted, oil has surged, and investors are paying much closer attention to the inflation and growth risks that come with a prolonged energy shock. What has changed even more is the dollar. After spending much of the past year in a weak trend, the greenback has started to behave very differently since the Strait disruption. With higher oil feeding inflation concerns, rate-cut expectations for this year have been pushed back sharply, and the market is now pricing in very little easing from the Fed, which is helping support dollar demand. If the next Fed chair also turns out to be more focused on balanc

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Gambit to “Buy” Greenland—What’s at Stake?Trump is clearly in full midterm-election mode—and since the start of the year, he’s delivered a new headline every week. First a strike on Venezuela, then brinkmanship with Iran, now talk of “buying” Greenland. Each move has jolted markets to some degree.The pattern is unmistakable: these regions matter because of what lies beneath them. Venezuela sits just 230 kilometers from U.S. shores and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Its heavy crude perfectly complements refining capacity along the Gulf Coast.Greenland, though deep in the Arctic, is only 320 kilometers from Alaska—yet over 3,000 kilometers from Copenhagen. Geographically, it’s more America’s backyard than Denmark’s. And beneath its ice lie vast mineral deposits

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

A significant market movement for gold and silver is anticipated leading up to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, with some even forecasting another cut in January. However, with the market having already priced in the likely successor to the Fed chair, this meeting is drawing less attention than usual. The primary source of uncertainty may lie in the differing opinions among the voting members. In the near future, the market is likely to focus more on the statements of the "shadow" Fed chair to predict the future path of rate cuts, potentially making the market less sensitive to Fed meetings until the leadership transition is complete.​Gold Awaits a Clearer Path for Rate CutsDespite strong expectations for

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d