Crypto trading is quite interesting, regarding the previous statement by the SEC chairman that the Bitcoin ETF was approved, the SEC clarified that their official account was hacked and an unauthorized post was made, and in fact, the Bitcoin spot ETF has not been approved.
Bitcoin also surged and then fell below 46,000 in the short term.
However, the trading activity of related stocks in the currency circle has not decreased. Stocks such as $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ , $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ $Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$ etc., are among the top options trading rankings. Among them, COIN's options trading is more cost-effective due to its stock price exceeding 150, and it is as popular as stocks like $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in the same price range.
Observing the options trading of COIN and MARA on January 9th also provides insight into the market's mapping points.
COIN
Based on the PUT on January 12th, the majority of open interest is concentrated in the 120-140 and 150-160 ranges, indicating "big rise and big fall." If the SEC openly rejects, it may fall below 130, or there will be many investors willing to bottom fish at this level.
Of course, the hope for ETF approval is relatively slim now, so if it is approved, it will be a low-probability event with high potential returns.
We can see that the median exercise price for CALL options for the week has reached 165. There are also many open interests outside the game price, including a significant number at 300. Among them, there are 8435 and 12687 open interests at the 180 and 200 price levels, respectively.
MARA
Due to its lower price, MARA's options trading has become more intense.
In terms of PUT options, the maximum open interest is at 20, but more are concentrated in the 16-17 range, making it a high probability "bottom fishing" position. There are very few PUT options above 25, and speculators are willing to bet outside the price range.
Looking ahead to the monthly options expiring on January 19th, the distribution of PUT options below 25 is relatively even, with no clear direction yet. Therefore, there is a high probability of IV crush.
Looking at CALL options, the median exercise price for CALL options for the week has reached 27. There are over 8000 open interests outside the game price at 45, and 12022 at the integer price of 30.
The trading activity in the remaining two days of this week will also be quite active!
Happy Trading!
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