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Deep OTM Unusual Options Could Mean A Lot

On April 26th, there were unusual orders, but looking at a few with especially large trading volumes might not reveal much, because major technology companies happened to release their financial reports that week, and it was also Friday, so some investors would adjust their positions, roll over contracts, and some would close positions.If more attention is paid to the movements of unclosed orders that are in the money (especially deep in the money), one might be able to detect some large orders.There are investors starting to buy the $55 calls for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ with an average price of $20.81, betting on a rise above $170 within a month.After the financial report led to a sharp drop, there are investors who have bottom-fished the $380 calls
Deep OTM Unusual Options Could Mean A Lot

Elon Musk Visiting China, For?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Chief Executive Elon Musk was flying to Beijing on his Gulfstream G550 private jet on Sunday. It was at a time when the Beijing Auto China Show was in full swing.According to insiders, Musk is seeking to meet with senior Chinese officials in Beijing to discuss the launch of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in China and to strive for approval to transfer data collected in China overseas to train the algorithms for autonomous driving technology.
Elon Musk Visiting China, For?
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04-26 10:15

How Snapchat Beat in Q1 Earnings?

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ announced its Q1 financial performance, soaring 24% after hours. The Q1 financial performance Revenue saw a 21% year-on-year increase in first-quarter revenue to $1.195 billion, exceeding the expected $1.12 billion, mainly due to improvements in the advertising platform and increased demand for direct response advertising solutions Adjusted EBITDA is $46 million, expected to be -$67.6 million. DAU is 422 million, market expectations were at 420 million. Free cash flow is $38 million. Content platformDaily Active Users (DAU) reached 422 million, a 10% year-on-year increase in global content viewing time and audience numbers increased year-on-year,Spotlight and creator stories contributing the most Focus is on deepening content enga
How Snapchat Beat in Q1 Earnings?

How to choose after TSLA's 14% earnings surge?

What to do after a big surge of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? Two indicators worth paying attention to. Short positions. Since this week, due to the financial report event, short positions have actively reduced their positions, and it was not until April 23 that they continued to increase some speculative chips. However, the rise after hours is enough to make them cover, because the short covering of Tesla is generally about 1.2 days, and the trading frequency is very fast. According to the short trading situation of the previous quarter, the days after the financial report are often the most active trading period for short positions. Considering the sharp drop after the financial report of the previous quarter, the short positions have more advantage. S
How to choose after TSLA's 14% earnings surge?

What if Big-Tech 6 falls? Will Small-Cap follow?

The seven giants are adjusting, but US stocks are starting to differentiate. Except for NVIDIA as a necessity, the other companies are facing expenditure, profit, and tests. The performance so far this year, except for Tesla plummeting, the rest have surged and then fallen back. In the unusual options activity on April 23, the shadows of the small-cap stock $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and the emerging markets ETF $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ appeared. IWM's small-cap stock put option 8% out-of-the-money for next month is relatively neutral, implying that some investors are betting on the performance of small-cap stocks next month; the emerging markets are a 17% out-of-the-money call for Dece
What if Big-Tech 6 falls? Will Small-Cap follow?

Apple's support may broke

With the rise in risk sentiment, the market's heavyweight stocks have also begun to pull back. Although the performance of the seven tech giants this week has not been too different (except for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ), investors have significantly different expectations.Among them, the IVs of $Apple(AAPL)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ have reached a historical high for the past year, which means that investors expect a large volatility to occur next (usually negative).And the tech giants' earnings reports are in two weeks. Theoretically, the IV level is quite high, but reaching the historical highest level directly indicates that the volatility expected by investors may n
Apple's support may broke

Will ASML Earnings Crush the Market?

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Q1 earnings would burden the market?Let’s see how the report said.Revenue 5.29 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, lower than the expected 5.47 billion euros. Among them, EUV machine revenue 1.8 billion euros, selling 11 units, slightly exceeding the expected 1.67 billion euros. GAAP earnings per share were 3.11 euros, higher than the market's expected 2.84 euros. At the same time, it is expected that the Q2 revenue in 2024 will be between 5.7 and 6.2 billion euros, lower than the market's expected 6.4 billion euros.TakeawaysDecline in orders is the main reason for miss, but not in EUV orders (est 9 units vs actually 11), shortfall was in the DUV;Increase in gross margin boots profit margin, consensus 48.8% vs
Will ASML Earnings Crush the Market?

How Can I trade VIX in April?

The "Fear and Greed" index has once again fallen back into the "Fear" rangeOrdinary investors may easily overlook the options of $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , reflecting the volatility of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . It is a cost-effective "hedge" underlying.Remember the following points:- Index option trades are all cash settled, so there is no "stock acceptance" situation in Sell PUT trades.- VIX is the market's expectation of **future** volatility within 30 days, not a measure of current or past volatility.- VIX options have a "Rule Of 16", precisely 15.87, which is the square root of 252 (the number of trading days in a year). If VIX is at 16, SPX is expected to fluctuate 1% daily; if VIX is 24, daily fluctu
How Can I trade VIX in April?

Do You Believe Meta Double In Two Years?

The market experienced its worst week in the past half year, except for the $Apple(AAPL)$ that rebounded last week, and the revalued $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ can barely support the market. Most other individual stocks have basically collapsed. Among the big tech stocks that fell the most in the past week is $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ but options activity indicates further actions by some large investors. As many tech stocks' IV Percentage has now returned to over 80%, it implies that the market is worried about further volatility. Sellers are hoping for higher IV, which might match the current trading conditions. In particular, the Call in June 2026 for META has seen
Do You Believe Meta Double In Two Years?

Costco Selling Up To $200 Million In Gold Bars Per Month

According to $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ since August last year, the monthly gold sales of $Costco(COST)$ may range between 100 to 200 million US dollars. Our work indicates that due to Costco's aggressive pricing and high customer trust, there has been a strong market interest in Costco. CNBC reported: The accelerated frequency of Reddit posts, rapid sellout of online products, and strong monthly electronic communication sales for Costco indicate a sharp rise in momentum since its launch. Costco sells one-ounce gold bars made of nearly pure 24K gold, with the product generally priced about 4% higher than the spot price. Currently, the sale of Costco gold bars is limited to five bars per customer (originally two ba
Costco Selling Up To $200 Million In Gold Bars Per Month

Is Disney only on Elon Musk's April Fool's joke?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ CEO Elon Musk tweeted and mocked $Disney(DIS)$, saying he was very excited to join Disney as 'Chief Diversity Officer,' in order to mock Disney for excessively incorporating 'diversity' elements in their works, and for their deliberate political thing. (我什么意思也没有)Of course, Disney's main issue now is not addressing these controversies, but rather the proxy fight. Therefore, Disney's recent stock price has also shown relatively strong performance. In short, activist investor Trian has launched a challenge to the board seats, aiming to challenge the current structure and management model. A proxy fight refers to shareholders coming together to use corporate governance rules to pressure th
Is Disney only on Elon Musk's April Fool's joke?

Will you follow Cathie Wood to buy Reddit?

On the first day of the $Reddit (RDDT)$ IPO, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 10,000 shares, with 5,914 shares of Reddit purchased in the $ARK Next Generation Internet ETF(ARKW)$ fund and 4,068 shares in the $ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)$ Since it was bought on the first day, Reddit's IPO price was $34 per share, the Thursday opening price was $47 per share. As of April 2nd, the closing price was $45.97 per share, and this batch of holdings may already be incurring losses. So, if you had the chance to buy Ark at the bottom, would you buy it?
Will you follow Cathie Wood to buy Reddit?

New history! ABC daughter becomes the vice presidential candidate in US!

Who is she?In a surprise move, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has selected 38-year-old San Francisco lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his running mate, shaking up the 2024 election landscape. 图片Kennedy, 70, announced Shanahan's selection on Tuesday, citing their shared skepticism of the two-party system "controlled by corporations." Shanahan, a lawyer and entrepreneur, has provided significant funding to a super PAC supporting Kennedy's campaign. The age and gender gap between the two candidates is seen as a strategic move by Kennedy to appeal to younger voters and diversify his ticket. "Nicole is the daughter of immigrants who has overcome tremendous obstacles to achieve the American dream," Kennedy said at the announcement event. 图片Shanahan, who was previously aligned
New history! ABC daughter becomes the vice presidential candidate in US!

AI stocks are in divergence (by options IV)

After the interference caused by the $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ capital increase on March 19th, the overall sentiment of chip stocks has declined. As the leading company with GTC support, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has not only avoided falling but rebounded, although the IV has also dropped significantly; even $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ has turned negative skewness. Currently, only meme stocks like $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ are maintaining positive sentiment, while others are experiencing a downturn. However, when the market is left with only speculative sentiment, it often tends to reach its peak in the short term. Fig
AI stocks are in divergence (by options IV)

NVDA or SMCI? IV is the key answer!

The Nvidia GTC 2024 kicked off, and Lao Huang unexpectedly brought out the real deal, three important 'nuclear bombs': Blackwell have improved 25 times compared to the previous generation, making it the world's most powerful chip. The reasoning performance of the GB200 NVL72 compared to the H100 has been increased by up to 30 times. Launching the AI project Project GR00T to assist humanoid robots. However, Nvidia's stock price opened high and closed low, with a mere 0.7% increase at the close, making it the second worst performance on the day of the GTC conference in the past 8 years. I think mainly it's due to 'Sell the News', where market expectations are largely met and there has been some profit-taking before the event.The current status of several AI stocks also shows differences. Nvi
NVDA or SMCI? IV is the key answer!

Unusual Option Talks? Why selling shovels not as good as selling golds?

BTC hits a new high, also the best-performing asset so far this year. However, there is a differentiation among assets based on BTC as the underlying asset. Among the assets that have kept up with BTC so far this year, besides the platform $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ that barely meets the criteria, there is only $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ who beats.However, since March, two mining companies, $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ and $Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$ , have performed very weakly. This might be because in the rebound last year, mining companies were leading the way with gains surpassing BTC, essentially pre-price
Unusual Option Talks? Why selling shovels not as good as selling golds?

A whistleblower's death could make boeing's situation more complex

The key points regarding what happened to $Boeing(BA)$ in relation to the death of whistleblower John Barnett are as follows:John Barnett, a former Boeing employee and whistleblower who raised concerns about the company's production standards, was found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound in a truck in a hotel car park in South CarolinaBarnett had worked for Boeing for 32 years until his retirement in 2017 and had been involved in a whistleblower lawsuit against the company, alleging issues with production standards and safety compromises, including the use of sub-standard parts and problems with emergency oxygen systemsDespite his efforts to address these concerns, Barnett felt that his warnings were disregarded by Boeing, leading to
A whistleblower's death could make boeing's situation more complex

Cathie Wood's Trading Strategy Makes Alpha!

Cathie Wood's current strategy is typical of buying low and selling high. Below is the holding and stock price chart of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (yellow represents stock price, purple represents holding).Below is $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Below is $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ BTW, it is COIN the largest position in $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ , instead of TSLA
Cathie Wood's Trading Strategy Makes Alpha!

Up and Downs of HK new Stocks

The Hong Kong stock market has been dominated by a demon stock these days, $UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880)$ The characteristics of this stock that caused the frenzy are:It was just listed not long ago, and the lock-up period has not yet expired. It was listed on December 29, 2023.The issuance proportion is extremely low, with a market value of 10.6 billion HKD, and it only issued 2.7% of the shares, raising just over 1 billion HKD.The proportion of cornerstone investors (institutions) is high, accounting for 53%, more than half, with 37% for international allocation and 10% for public offering.The float is less than 500 million shares, and it cannot be ruled out that international allocation is also acting in unison.Concepts such as AI and robotics are s
Up and Downs of HK new Stocks

Arkhouse increases bid for Macy’s takeover, $M's arbitrage is still a good choice

The tender offer for $Macy's(M)$ has unsurprisingly been increased, which was also expected. Investment consortiums Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital, after further contact with the management and obtaining more financial information about the company, raised their previous offer of $21 per share to $24 per share.A customer exits the Macy's flagship department store in midtown Manhattan in New YorkMacy's management team is diligentI think at least they are motivated and committed to serving more stakeholders, aligning with the interests of small shareholders, large shareholders, and company employees. The key is that the increased offer is also beneficial to them. Therefore, their initial rejection of the $21 offer and
Arkhouse increases bid for Macy’s takeover, $M's arbitrage is still a good choice

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