Tigerong
01-21


In contrast, Apple's AI developments were notably absent. Siri remained largely unchanged and was seemingly forgotten, leaving Apple trailing behind in the AI space, especially compared to Alphabet. Furthermore, Apple's recent shutdown of a 121-person AI team in San Diego only exacerbates its lag in the AI race, at least in the public eye.

Secondly, Apple's financial performance in FY23 also fell short of expectations. The company experienced a broad decline in revenue across all segments, with the exception of its Services division.

Remarkably, despite these results, Apple's stock soared by 45% in 2023, pushing its market capitalization beyond the $3 trillion mark. This surge suggests significant investor confidence and goodwill. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock is not entirely unexpected.

It's important to note that Apple's poor hardware sales can't solely be attributed to the company's strategy, as they are influenced by broader macroeconomic factors. The demand for consumer electronics has been in decline, which is a cyclical trend likely to reverse over time. Once the market rebounds, we can anticipate Apple increasing its hardware sales, potentially reaching new record highs.

Examining the largest company by market capitalization each year since 2000, we see that Microsoft has occasionally achieved this status. However, this does not necessarily imply that Microsoft will permanently retain the number one position.

One might also note that General Electric, once a long-standing leader in market capitalization, eventually lost its dominant position. In contrast, Apple has not experienced any significant fundamental deterioration in its business, and its brand remains robust. Moreover, Warren Buffett continue to hold Apple shares as Berkshire Hathaway's largest position, indicating confidence in the company's future.

An interesting pattern emerges when examining Apple's stock performance at each trillion-dollar market cap milestone.

In 2018, when Apple first reached a $1 trillion market cap, its stock subsequently tumbled by 31% before recovering. Upon regaining its $1 trillion status, the stock experienced another 16% drop.

A similar pattern occurred with the $2 trillion milestone in 2020: the stock corrected by 11%, and after regaining the $2 trillion mark, it fell by an additional 7%.

This consistent pattern was also observed in 2023 when Apple first hit a $3 trillion market cap, followed by a 15% correction.

If history is any indicator, Apple's current pullback, after regaining its $3 trillion market cap, suggests that the stock is still on a long-term uptrend, with the potential to reach a $4 trillion market cap. Therefore, it may be premature to discount Apple's prospects.

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Comments

  • JamesWalton
    01-25
    JamesWalton
    I believe that Apple's recent setbacks are just temporary and the stock will continue to rise, reaching a $4 trillion market cap in the future.
  • AdairHoratio
    01-25
    AdairHoratio
    Long-term gains await! 🚀🍎
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