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2023-08-11

First Netflix, Now Disney: Bob Iger Hints That the Next Password Crackdown Is Coming

First Netflix, Now Disney: Bob Iger Hints That the Next Password Crackdown Is Coming

01-17

Walt Disney Makes Its Case for Rejecting Activist Shareholder

Walt Disney Makes Its Case for Rejecting Activist Shareholder

01-15

Walt Disney Co. In Talks With NFL For Potential ESPN Stake

Walt Disney Co. In Talks With NFL For Potential ESPN Stake

User Discussion

01-21

In contrast, Apple's AI developments were notably absent. Siri remained largely unchanged and was seemingly forgotten, leaving Apple trailing behind in the AI space, especially compared to Alphabet. Furthermore, Apple's recent shutdown of a 121-person AI team in San Diego only exacerbates its lag in the AI race, at least in the public eye. Secondly, Apple's financial performance in FY23 also fell short of expectations. The company experienced a broad decline in revenue across all segments, with the exception of its Services division. Remarkably, despite these results, Apple's stock soared by 45% in 2023, pushing its market capitalization beyond the $3 trillion mark. This surge suggests significant investor confidence and goodwill. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock is not entirely

2023-12-11

Thanks

Disney: No, The Dividend Doesn't Matter

2023-11-17

Mostly does not make sense at all what this person wanna say

Disney Stock Is a Buy, but Not Because of Q4 Earnings

2023-09-17

$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ cool beans [Tongue] $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$

MaverickWealthBuilder

2023-09-14

Why Netflix Plunged 5%?

Event $Netflix(NFLX)$ plunged 5%+ on Wednesday, due to the CFO providing relatively negative guidance at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Summit. He believes that the company's advertising business will not have a significant impact on the company in the short term and announced an operating profit margin guidance of 18-20%, which is lower than the market's consensus expectation of 22%.The market's high expectations for profit margins are mainly based on the anticipation of a high-margin advertising business, indicating that Netflix's advertising business may be constrained by certain factors.Investment HighlightsRevenue is still growing positively, but the growth expectation for ARPU should not be too high. The market

Why Netflix Plunged 5%?

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Siri remained largely unchanged and was seemingly forgotten, leaving Apple trailing behind in the AI space, especially compared to Alphabet. Furthermore, Apple's recent shutdown of a 121-person AI team in San Diego only exacerbates its lag in the AI race, at least in the public eye. Secondly, Apple's financial performance in FY23 also fell short of expectations. The company experienced a broad decline in revenue across all segments, with the exception of its Services division. Remarkably, despite these results, Apple's stock soared by 45% in 2023, pushing its market capitalization beyond the $3 trillion mark. This surge suggests significant investor confidence and goodwill. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock is not entirely","listText":"In contrast, Apple's AI developments were notably absent. Siri remained largely unchanged and was seemingly forgotten, leaving Apple trailing behind in the AI space, especially compared to Alphabet. Furthermore, Apple's recent shutdown of a 121-person AI team in San Diego only exacerbates its lag in the AI race, at least in the public eye. Secondly, Apple's financial performance in FY23 also fell short of expectations. The company experienced a broad decline in revenue across all segments, with the exception of its Services division. Remarkably, despite these results, Apple's stock soared by 45% in 2023, pushing its market capitalization beyond the $3 trillion mark. This surge suggests significant investor confidence and goodwill. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock is not entirely","text":"In contrast, Apple's AI developments were notably absent. Siri remained largely unchanged and was seemingly forgotten, leaving Apple trailing behind in the AI space, especially compared to Alphabet. Furthermore, Apple's recent shutdown of a 121-person AI team in San Diego only exacerbates its lag in the AI race, at least in the public eye. Secondly, Apple's financial performance in FY23 also fell short of expectations. The company experienced a broad decline in revenue across all segments, with the exception of its Services division. Remarkably, despite these results, Apple's stock soared by 45% in 2023, pushing its market capitalization beyond the $3 trillion mark. This surge suggests significant investor confidence and goodwill. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock is not entirely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/265312661843992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000549","authorId":"9000000000000549","name":"JamesWalton","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"I believe that Apple's recent setbacks are just temporary and the stock will continue to rise, reaching a $4 trillion market cap in the future.","text":"I believe that Apple's recent setbacks are just temporary and the stock will continue to rise, reaching a $4 trillion market cap in the future.","html":"I believe that Apple's recent setbacks are just temporary and the stock will continue to rise, reaching a $4 trillion market cap in the future."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":250777240252480,"gmtCreate":1702244009209,"gmtModify":1702244012297,"author":{"id":"3555362771681553","authorId":"3555362771681553","name":"selwyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7e6473ec2cec348d167d7d95fbdb76c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/250777240252480","repostId":"2389863073","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2389863073","pubTimestamp":1702174068,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2389863073?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-10 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney: No, The Dividend Doesn't Matter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2389863073","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"which was based upon the Pixar film depicting a future where AI and automation have made it so human beings didn't have to do anything but sit back, relax, and stare at screens. Everyone was obese and with GLP-1 drugs being all the rage these days, it looks like I might have nailed that part of the thesis.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The author sold their stake in Disney due to years of underperformance and a dividend cut.</p></li><li><p>They reallocated the proceeds into higher conviction picks, including Honeywell, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Canadian National Railway, and McDonald&#39;s.</p></li><li><p>The author believes that the media/entertainment industry is facing challenges, and they prefer to invest in perpetual compounders with asset-light/service-driven business models.</p></li></ul><p>There was a time when Disney (NYSE:DIS) was my second-largest position (trailing only Apple in my dividend growth portfolio).</p><p>That was 5+ years ago.</p><p>It was before the dawn of the streaming wars. The company was dominating the box office and printing cash with its linear television model. And I was extremely bullish on the company&#39;s future due to the strength of its IP and its well-diversified business model.</p><p>My oh my, how things have changed.</p><p>Today, Apple is still my largest position (by far). But, Disney is no longer in my portfolio.</p><h2 id=\"id_2287885910\">Selling My Stake</h2><p>After a dividend cut and years of underperformance, I finally decided to cut ties with Disney in favor of stocks that better meet the perpetual compounder strategy that I&#39;ve adopted this year.</p><p>I sold Disney back in October.</p><p>I was looking for some tax-loss opportunities to offset a big tax bill that I have coming due at the end of the year and when Disney&#39;s recent dip pushed my shares down into the red, I finally hit the sell button at $81.59 at an 11.2% loss.</p><p>I quickly reallocated the proceeds into higher conviction picks.</p><p>I used the Disney proceeds to buy shares of Honeywell (HON) at $181.75, PepsiCo (PEP) at $157.12, Coca-Cola (KO) at $52.09, Canadian National Railway (CNI) at $106.34, and McDonald&#39;s (MCD) at $247.08.</p><p>This trade was made at the height of the GLP-1 drug scare…when it appeared that investors believed no one would eat sugar ever again.</p><p>I didn&#39;t buy into that thesis and was happy to accumulate some of the highest-quality stocks in the food/beverage space at historical discounts.</p><p>I also added heavily to a couple of beaten-down industrial names that are proven compounders.</p><p>All in all, I&#39;ve been happy with the trade. I was able to stash away some cash for my recent home purchase and still increased the size of my passive income stream.</p><p>Overall, I also believe that I increased the quality of my holdings and I&#39;m sleeping well at night no longer having exposure to the media/entertainment industry.</p><h2 id=\"id_1674268830\">Moving Away From Media/Entertainment Stocks</h2><p>You see, in recent years, I&#39;ve sold off positions in companies like AT&amp;T (T), Netflix (NFLX), Comcast (CMCSA), and Disney (DIS).</p><p>There was a time when I was extremely bullish on this area of the market.</p><p>I&#39;ve written about my Wall-E thesis…which was based upon the Pixar film depicting a future where AI and automation have made it so human beings didn&#39;t have to do anything but sit back, relax, and stare at screens.</p><p>Everyone was obese and with GLP-1 drugs being all the rage these days, it looks like I might have nailed that part of the thesis.</p><p>Screen time is up drastically as well.</p><p>According to Josh Howarth at Exploding Topics, we&#39;re looking at record screen time for people across most age groups, geographic locations, and demographics.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b324578b7528c86e09b238b40f56c98\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"676\"/></p><p>Exploding Topics</p><p>All of this screen time is impacting our lives in many ways (mostly negative), including sleep deprivation, higher risk of diabetes, obesity, and learning deficiencies.</p><p>Moving forward, I assume that increased productivity from AI/automation will result in more and more screen time.</p><p>To me, demand for content remains a secular trend.</p><p>I got that part of my Wall-E thesis right too.</p><p>The problem is…no one has been able to capitalize on it, financially.</p><p>When I made those bullish media/entertainment investments years ago, I totally underestimated the negative impact that the streaming war would have on profitability within the entertainment industry.</p><p>Content has been commoditized and streaming distribution remains a very-low margin business.</p><p>Even Netflix, which has established itself as the leader in the streaming wars, has only recently become reliably profitable (2020 was its first year of positive operating cash flow results).</p><p>Rising competition in the streaming wars has required players to spend heavily to compete.</p><p>Disney is deep in debt right now because of its $71 billion 21st Century Fox acquisition in 2019.</p><p>At the time of that deal, I was bullish.</p><p>I assumed Disney&#39;s then-outgoing CEO, Bob Iger (who is currently CEO as well, after returning to his post) would turn those assets into a golden goose just like he did with the Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm buys.</p><p>Alas, that hasn&#39;t been the case.</p><p>Avatar (whose rights they acquired in the deal) appears to have paid off nicely (making $2.3 billion at the box office); however, I believe other popular assets such as Deadpool/X-Men have been underutilized.</p><p>Overall, I don&#39;t think subscriber trends show that these media companies have the pricing power that they hoped they would when the streaming wars began.</p><h2 id=\"id_1641676052\">Debt and Capex Hurting Shareholder Returns</h2><p>Disney&#39;s debt becomes a bigger issue in the high interest rate world that we&#39;re living in today.</p><p>Right now, Disney&#39;s average interest rate is still relatively low. But, interest expenses are headed higher.</p><p>Last quarter Disney spent $501 million on interest rate expenses…up from $434 million during the same quarter one year prior.</p><p>That&#39;s what ~$42 billion of debt will do to you.</p><p>Disney has been working to reduce the burden of debt on its balance sheet.</p><p>During the last year, they&#39;ve paid off slightly more than $3b of debt.</p><p>But, I don&#39;t think they have the cash flows to totally pay off their debts totally in the near term (at the end of Q3 Disney had $14.2 billion of cash/cash equivalents and generated free cash flow of $3.4 billion), and therefore, having to refinance at higher rates becomes a real concern.</p><p>The Q3 results were solid, but when I factor in the mega-capex expectations that Iger had laid out in front of the company between now and the end of the decade, things get a bit more murky.</p><p>Back in September, Disney announced plans to invest $60 billion into its parks and cruises over the coming decade.</p><p>That&#39;s actually a big part of the reason that I finally pulled the trigger on the Disney sale was because of the big capex announcement that the company made during Q3.</p><p>Parks and Resorts have been Disney&#39;s best operating segment since the COVID recovery and I don&#39;t blame management for investing in its most reliable cash cow.</p><p>But, this investment leads me to one of the reasons that I&#39;ve decided to move on from Disney: the economic sensitivity of its parts division.</p><p>Post-COVID revenge spending has bolstered Disney&#39;s Parks and Resorts segment for a couple of years now. But, that appears to be slowing down (the company&#39;s Parks/Resorts sales were only up 7% last quarter (a far cry from the 73% growth that Disney&#39;s Parks segment generated in 2022).</p><h2 id=\"id_4063410655\">Politics, Storytelling, and Consumer Sentiment</h2><p>What&#39;s more, it appears that political backlash from the company&#39;s spat with Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis and several questionable story-telling decisions related to political correctness (which Iger has recently said that he hopes to correct, with the company&#39;s priority, moving forward, being on storytelling as opposed to messaging and virtue signaling) is starting to wear on the company&#39;s results.</p><p>Obviously, inflation (and wage inflation) doesn&#39;t help either.</p><p>Disney has attempted to combat this by raising prices at their resorts, but I do fear that these moves are going to hurt long-term demand.</p><p>I make a respectable salary. So does my wife. We&#39;ve vacationed to Disney World several times in recent years with our little ones. But, the most recent round of increases is making it hard to justify another trip (no matter how much we want to go back).</p><p>And rising prices aren&#39;t just slowing spending at parks.</p><p>It&#39;s looking like 2023 will be the first year since 2014 that Disney doesn&#39;t produce a $1 billion blockbuster at the box office.</p><p>From princesses to superheroes to galaxies far, far away…nothing is working like it once was for this company.</p><p>That isn&#39;t to say that Disney&#39;s IP isn&#39;t great or that it can&#39;t recapture the magic that created so many adoring fans over the years; however, the numbers speak for themselves.</p><p>People aren&#39;t as excited about Disney content - for a variety of reasons - and that doesn&#39;t bode well for its other segments (Parks, Resorts, Cruises, and Merchandise) which all benefit from the trickle-down effect created by demand for its most popular movies/shows.</p><p>For instance, last quarter, Disney&#39;s Consumer Product segment&#39;s sales were down 5% on a y/y basis.</p><p>A week-long trip to Disney World is going to set you back at least $5,000 (or much, much more depending on what level of resort you pick).</p><p>A trip to the theaters with the family is going to cost a couple hundred dollars with candy, drinks, and popcorn factored in.</p><p>These things are weighing heavily on families&#39; pocket books…and it will only get worse if we head into recession.</p><p>All in all, I&#39;ve decided to take steps to avoid stocks that are economically sensitive.</p><h2 id=\"id_2470626816\">Sticking With Perpetual Compounders</h2><p>Instead, I prefer to own stocks that compound their sales/earnings/cash flows reliably, throughout any number of economic environments, due to asset-light/service-driven business models, high margins, and secular growth tailwinds.</p><p>Those are the types of companies that I can count on for reliable dividend growth moving forward (my perpetual compounder focus isn&#39;t just about capital gains, but more importantly, reliably increasing dividends as well).</p><p>Rapid dividend growth is what I&#39;m basing my retirement plans off of. It&#39;s also what enables me to rest easy during times of high inflation.</p><p>I knew that Disney planned on reinstating its dividend.</p><p>Iger originally mentioned that several quarters ago.</p><p>But when I looked at Disney&#39;s recent operating results and balance sheet I assumed that its capex plans didn&#39;t leave a lot of wiggle room for reliable dividend growth.</p><p>Since I made that sale, Disney lived up to the expectations that Bob Iger previously set for reestablishing its dividend.</p><p>They announced a $0.30/share dividend that will be paid on January 10th, 2024.</p><p>To receive this dividend you&#39;d have to own Disney shares on December 11th.</p><p>This news inspired a handful of subscribers to ask me, &#34;Are you getting back in now that Disney is paying a dividend again?&#34;</p><p>My 30-day wash-sale period is over and I could re-enter the stock in time to receive the upcoming payment if I wanted to.</p><p>But, this $0.30/share dividend announcement hasn&#39;t changed my outlook on the company.</p><p>Disney is still not a stock that I&#39;m interested in owning.</p><p>This sub-1% yield isn&#39;t very attractive to me.</p><p>I&#39;m happy to own low-yielders.</p><p>Actually, most of my favorite companies in the market have very low dividend yields.</p><p>But, they also have double-digit dividend growth prospects…and I don&#39;t think that&#39;s the case with Disney right now.</p><p>To me, there are too many uncertainties surrounding the company, its cash flows, and its long-term growth prospects to own shares.</p><h2 id=\"id_550999683\">A Difficult Stock to Evaluate</h2><p>It&#39;s very difficult to evaluate Disney because of changing consumer tastes, spending patterns, and the earnings volatility that this creates.</p><p>And since I lacked conviction in my FV estimate, I realized that I probably shouldn&#39;t own shares.</p><p>Obviously, the pandemic was a very unique hurdle for public-facing companies like Disney to contend with, but its earnings fell 65% in 2020.</p><p>That was after a -19% earnings print in 2019 having to do with the Fox acquisition and increased capex as the company attempted to build Disney+ into a formidable streaming option.</p><p>Disney saw a huge bottom-line bounce back in 2022, with EPS soaring 54%.</p><p>However, even with that growth in mind, 2022&#39;s $3.53 full-year EPS was still less than half of 2018&#39;s $7.08/share annual total.</p><p>Right now, analysts expect to see Disney compound its earnings at a 20% clip moving forward over the next several years.</p><p>However, even with those torrid growth prospects in mind, Disney&#39;s full-year 2026 EPS is still likely to be a dollar less than the 2018 figure.</p><p>And honestly, with a potential recession on the horizon, I think analysts may be too optimistic here.</p><p>Disney&#39;s 2023 EPS growth came in at 7% and that was with a record year from the parks.</p><p>The Media/Studios segment is still struggling and if Parks &amp; Resorts fall apart because of macroeconomic pressure…well, I think DIS is going to have a hard time hitting that 2026 consensus target of $6.15/share.</p><p>With all of that in mind, the question remains, what should investors pay for Disney shares?</p><p>Historically, they&#39;ve traded at a premium to the market, in the 20-22x range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec9a9379f28f26337f4e75bf3d22d9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p>F.A.S.T. Graphs</p><p>As you can see, if Disney continues to follow the historical trend line and analysts are right about that rapid earnings growth, inventors buying shares here are going to make a lot of money.</p><p>However, those are two big &#34;ifs&#34; in my book.</p><p>And I don&#39;t have the faith in the media industry anymore to stick around for &#34;ifs&#34;.</p><p>Disney&#39;s 10 and 20-year average P/E ratios are 25x and 21.6x, respectively.</p><p>However, that average is largely made up of data from before the streaming wars.</p><p>And things become even more difficult to wade through when I look at more recent averages.</p><p>Disney&#39;s average P/E during the past 5 years is north of 33x because of the huge premium that shares carried during 2020 and 2021 caused by its stock price and its fundamentals heading in two separate directions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acf25a3ba87fc2ec96d492e2a23d188\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"/></p><p>F.A.S.T. Graphs</p><p>In hindsight, that was the time to sell. But, hindsight doesn&#39;t matter much in the present, and at the time, I bought into the hype that Disney+ was going to take over the world.</p><p>I suppose there&#39;s an argument to be made that a 33x multiple is fair if I truly believed that Disney would compound its earnings at a 20% rate over the next several years. But, I do not.</p><p>This isn&#39;t a company with secular trend trends behind it. It&#39;s dependent on the consumer and I&#39;m not looking to pay such high multiples for any consumer discretionary stock.</p><p>I decided that a ~20x multiple was probably fair. That&#39;s below historical averages, but above the broader market&#39;s premium, reflecting Disney&#39;s strong IP and double-digit growth prospects.</p><p>However, 20x ttm earnings back when I sold was ~$75/share.</p><p>20x forward earnings (if you believe that analysts are correct and Disney will grow its EPS by 18% this year) is nearly $89.00.</p><p>I wouldn&#39;t be surprised to see 2024 be more in line with 2023 and therefore, a 20x multiple on my forward estimate was roughly $83/share.</p><p>With that ttm multiple of $75/share and the forward multiple at $83/share, I was content to sell my shares at $81.60 (because with the tax-loss savings in mind, I was essentially breaking even at $83).</p><p>Furthermore, when I was performing these mental gymnastics, I couldn&#39;t help but consider the fact that Comcast, which is Disney&#39;s closest peer, in my estimation (they have strong IP, television, movie, and theme park assets), was trading for roughly 10x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c924472b56e6f574ba6c25577190184a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"700\"/></p><p>F.A.S.T. Graphs</p><p>Comcast&#39;s 2024 growth forecast is essentially in line with my more conservative, ~10% growth estimate for Disney next year.</p><p>What if the market is right about Comcast and that&#39;s the multiple that a mature (diversified) media company deserves to trade with?</p><p>Then my 20x target for Disney would represent a gross overvaluation and potentially lose me a lot of money.</p><p>The more I think about it, the more sure I am…Disney doesn&#39;t deserve a Netflix-like multiple (NFLX shares currently trade for 28.5x forward expectations).</p><p>Why?</p><p>Because NFLX is much less economically sensitive than Disney is.</p><p>It sells a product in the $10-$20 range…whereas Disney relies on big ticket expenses from the consumer to support its bottom line.</p><p>All in all, the risk/reward of Disney, relative to other blue chip dividend growers who had recently sold off, wasn&#39;t worth it to me.</p><p>And it still isn&#39;t today because I don&#39;t buy into that ~20% EPS CAGR story between now and 2026.</p><p>Not only does this company not meet my compounder quality thresholds…it&#39;s not a deep-value stock either.</p><h2 id=\"id_256817529\">Never Fall In Love With A Stock</h2><p>Therefore, it was sitting in no-man&#39;s land in my portfolio and when thinking about my overall financial situation, I decided to part ways with the company after years of ownership.</p><p>Now that I&#39;m pivoting towards this new compounder-centric strategy, I&#39;ve had to remind myself, never fall in love with a stock (as nostalgic as Disney maybe).</p><p>I have a couple of young children at home, so I&#39;ll continue to consume Disney&#39;s content and buy their merchandise regularly.</p><p>People who follow my work closely know that I like trading card games and I&#39;m excited about the potential of Lorcana moving forward. I&#39;m thinking about buying into the Amber/Steel songs deck that&#39;s been doing well at events. That&#39;ll add to Disney&#39;s bottom line.</p><p>And even though the prices are off-putting, my wife and I are going to do our best to make another trip to Disney World next winter happen (it&#39;ll be nice to get out of the cold and everyone really wants to see Main Street USA all decked out with Christmas decorations).</p><p>Without a doubt, I&#39;m a Disney fan. That hasn&#39;t changed. But, as much as I love the company&#39;s products, I no longer feel compelled to own shares.</p><p>Right now, I think there are better places to allocate capital.</p><p>Simply put, you won&#39;t see me owning media/entertainment pure plays anytime soon.</p><p>I&#39;ll stick with big tech for that exposure:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple (Apple+)</p></li><li><p>Amazon (Prime Video)</p></li><li><p>Alphabet (YouTube/YouTube TV)</p></li></ul><p>Those stocks provide amazing cash flows, much stronger balance sheets, and other revenue streams that benefit from secular tailwinds.</p><p>And I&#39;ll target stronger companies with more predictable, reliable earnings driven by secular growth trends with any new capital that I deploy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: No, The Dividend Doesn't Matter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: No, The Dividend Doesn't Matter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-10 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656844-disney-no-the-dividend-doesnt-matter><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The author sold their stake in Disney due to years of underperformance and a dividend cut.They reallocated the proceeds into higher conviction picks, including Honeywell, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Canadian ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656844-disney-no-the-dividend-doesnt-matter\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","DIS":"迪士尼","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4206":"工业集团企业","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2384288077.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A-INS\" (EUR) ACC","LU1621767737.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1621767810.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A\" (EUR) INC","LU1621768206.USD":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (USD) ACC","LU1621768115.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"B\" (EUR) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4209":"餐馆","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656844-disney-no-the-dividend-doesnt-matter","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2389863073","content_text":"The author sold their stake in Disney due to years of underperformance and a dividend cut.They reallocated the proceeds into higher conviction picks, including Honeywell, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Canadian National Railway, and McDonald's.The author believes that the media/entertainment industry is facing challenges, and they prefer to invest in perpetual compounders with asset-light/service-driven business models.There was a time when Disney (NYSE:DIS) was my second-largest position (trailing only Apple in my dividend growth portfolio).That was 5+ years ago.It was before the dawn of the streaming wars. The company was dominating the box office and printing cash with its linear television model. And I was extremely bullish on the company's future due to the strength of its IP and its well-diversified business model.My oh my, how things have changed.Today, Apple is still my largest position (by far). But, Disney is no longer in my portfolio.Selling My StakeAfter a dividend cut and years of underperformance, I finally decided to cut ties with Disney in favor of stocks that better meet the perpetual compounder strategy that I've adopted this year.I sold Disney back in October.I was looking for some tax-loss opportunities to offset a big tax bill that I have coming due at the end of the year and when Disney's recent dip pushed my shares down into the red, I finally hit the sell button at $81.59 at an 11.2% loss.I quickly reallocated the proceeds into higher conviction picks.I used the Disney proceeds to buy shares of Honeywell (HON) at $181.75, PepsiCo (PEP) at $157.12, Coca-Cola (KO) at $52.09, Canadian National Railway (CNI) at $106.34, and McDonald's (MCD) at $247.08.This trade was made at the height of the GLP-1 drug scare…when it appeared that investors believed no one would eat sugar ever again.I didn't buy into that thesis and was happy to accumulate some of the highest-quality stocks in the food/beverage space at historical discounts.I also added heavily to a couple of beaten-down industrial names that are proven compounders.All in all, I've been happy with the trade. I was able to stash away some cash for my recent home purchase and still increased the size of my passive income stream.Overall, I also believe that I increased the quality of my holdings and I'm sleeping well at night no longer having exposure to the media/entertainment industry.Moving Away From Media/Entertainment StocksYou see, in recent years, I've sold off positions in companies like AT&T (T), Netflix (NFLX), Comcast (CMCSA), and Disney (DIS).There was a time when I was extremely bullish on this area of the market.I've written about my Wall-E thesis…which was based upon the Pixar film depicting a future where AI and automation have made it so human beings didn't have to do anything but sit back, relax, and stare at screens.Everyone was obese and with GLP-1 drugs being all the rage these days, it looks like I might have nailed that part of the thesis.Screen time is up drastically as well.According to Josh Howarth at Exploding Topics, we're looking at record screen time for people across most age groups, geographic locations, and demographics.Exploding TopicsAll of this screen time is impacting our lives in many ways (mostly negative), including sleep deprivation, higher risk of diabetes, obesity, and learning deficiencies.Moving forward, I assume that increased productivity from AI/automation will result in more and more screen time.To me, demand for content remains a secular trend.I got that part of my Wall-E thesis right too.The problem is…no one has been able to capitalize on it, financially.When I made those bullish media/entertainment investments years ago, I totally underestimated the negative impact that the streaming war would have on profitability within the entertainment industry.Content has been commoditized and streaming distribution remains a very-low margin business.Even Netflix, which has established itself as the leader in the streaming wars, has only recently become reliably profitable (2020 was its first year of positive operating cash flow results).Rising competition in the streaming wars has required players to spend heavily to compete.Disney is deep in debt right now because of its $71 billion 21st Century Fox acquisition in 2019.At the time of that deal, I was bullish.I assumed Disney's then-outgoing CEO, Bob Iger (who is currently CEO as well, after returning to his post) would turn those assets into a golden goose just like he did with the Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm buys.Alas, that hasn't been the case.Avatar (whose rights they acquired in the deal) appears to have paid off nicely (making $2.3 billion at the box office); however, I believe other popular assets such as Deadpool/X-Men have been underutilized.Overall, I don't think subscriber trends show that these media companies have the pricing power that they hoped they would when the streaming wars began.Debt and Capex Hurting Shareholder ReturnsDisney's debt becomes a bigger issue in the high interest rate world that we're living in today.Right now, Disney's average interest rate is still relatively low. But, interest expenses are headed higher.Last quarter Disney spent $501 million on interest rate expenses…up from $434 million during the same quarter one year prior.That's what ~$42 billion of debt will do to you.Disney has been working to reduce the burden of debt on its balance sheet.During the last year, they've paid off slightly more than $3b of debt.But, I don't think they have the cash flows to totally pay off their debts totally in the near term (at the end of Q3 Disney had $14.2 billion of cash/cash equivalents and generated free cash flow of $3.4 billion), and therefore, having to refinance at higher rates becomes a real concern.The Q3 results were solid, but when I factor in the mega-capex expectations that Iger had laid out in front of the company between now and the end of the decade, things get a bit more murky.Back in September, Disney announced plans to invest $60 billion into its parks and cruises over the coming decade.That's actually a big part of the reason that I finally pulled the trigger on the Disney sale was because of the big capex announcement that the company made during Q3.Parks and Resorts have been Disney's best operating segment since the COVID recovery and I don't blame management for investing in its most reliable cash cow.But, this investment leads me to one of the reasons that I've decided to move on from Disney: the economic sensitivity of its parts division.Post-COVID revenge spending has bolstered Disney's Parks and Resorts segment for a couple of years now. But, that appears to be slowing down (the company's Parks/Resorts sales were only up 7% last quarter (a far cry from the 73% growth that Disney's Parks segment generated in 2022).Politics, Storytelling, and Consumer SentimentWhat's more, it appears that political backlash from the company's spat with Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis and several questionable story-telling decisions related to political correctness (which Iger has recently said that he hopes to correct, with the company's priority, moving forward, being on storytelling as opposed to messaging and virtue signaling) is starting to wear on the company's results.Obviously, inflation (and wage inflation) doesn't help either.Disney has attempted to combat this by raising prices at their resorts, but I do fear that these moves are going to hurt long-term demand.I make a respectable salary. So does my wife. We've vacationed to Disney World several times in recent years with our little ones. But, the most recent round of increases is making it hard to justify another trip (no matter how much we want to go back).And rising prices aren't just slowing spending at parks.It's looking like 2023 will be the first year since 2014 that Disney doesn't produce a $1 billion blockbuster at the box office.From princesses to superheroes to galaxies far, far away…nothing is working like it once was for this company.That isn't to say that Disney's IP isn't great or that it can't recapture the magic that created so many adoring fans over the years; however, the numbers speak for themselves.People aren't as excited about Disney content - for a variety of reasons - and that doesn't bode well for its other segments (Parks, Resorts, Cruises, and Merchandise) which all benefit from the trickle-down effect created by demand for its most popular movies/shows.For instance, last quarter, Disney's Consumer Product segment's sales were down 5% on a y/y basis.A week-long trip to Disney World is going to set you back at least $5,000 (or much, much more depending on what level of resort you pick).A trip to the theaters with the family is going to cost a couple hundred dollars with candy, drinks, and popcorn factored in.These things are weighing heavily on families' pocket books…and it will only get worse if we head into recession.All in all, I've decided to take steps to avoid stocks that are economically sensitive.Sticking With Perpetual CompoundersInstead, I prefer to own stocks that compound their sales/earnings/cash flows reliably, throughout any number of economic environments, due to asset-light/service-driven business models, high margins, and secular growth tailwinds.Those are the types of companies that I can count on for reliable dividend growth moving forward (my perpetual compounder focus isn't just about capital gains, but more importantly, reliably increasing dividends as well).Rapid dividend growth is what I'm basing my retirement plans off of. It's also what enables me to rest easy during times of high inflation.I knew that Disney planned on reinstating its dividend.Iger originally mentioned that several quarters ago.But when I looked at Disney's recent operating results and balance sheet I assumed that its capex plans didn't leave a lot of wiggle room for reliable dividend growth.Since I made that sale, Disney lived up to the expectations that Bob Iger previously set for reestablishing its dividend.They announced a $0.30/share dividend that will be paid on January 10th, 2024.To receive this dividend you'd have to own Disney shares on December 11th.This news inspired a handful of subscribers to ask me, \"Are you getting back in now that Disney is paying a dividend again?\"My 30-day wash-sale period is over and I could re-enter the stock in time to receive the upcoming payment if I wanted to.But, this $0.30/share dividend announcement hasn't changed my outlook on the company.Disney is still not a stock that I'm interested in owning.This sub-1% yield isn't very attractive to me.I'm happy to own low-yielders.Actually, most of my favorite companies in the market have very low dividend yields.But, they also have double-digit dividend growth prospects…and I don't think that's the case with Disney right now.To me, there are too many uncertainties surrounding the company, its cash flows, and its long-term growth prospects to own shares.A Difficult Stock to EvaluateIt's very difficult to evaluate Disney because of changing consumer tastes, spending patterns, and the earnings volatility that this creates.And since I lacked conviction in my FV estimate, I realized that I probably shouldn't own shares.Obviously, the pandemic was a very unique hurdle for public-facing companies like Disney to contend with, but its earnings fell 65% in 2020.That was after a -19% earnings print in 2019 having to do with the Fox acquisition and increased capex as the company attempted to build Disney+ into a formidable streaming option.Disney saw a huge bottom-line bounce back in 2022, with EPS soaring 54%.However, even with that growth in mind, 2022's $3.53 full-year EPS was still less than half of 2018's $7.08/share annual total.Right now, analysts expect to see Disney compound its earnings at a 20% clip moving forward over the next several years.However, even with those torrid growth prospects in mind, Disney's full-year 2026 EPS is still likely to be a dollar less than the 2018 figure.And honestly, with a potential recession on the horizon, I think analysts may be too optimistic here.Disney's 2023 EPS growth came in at 7% and that was with a record year from the parks.The Media/Studios segment is still struggling and if Parks & Resorts fall apart because of macroeconomic pressure…well, I think DIS is going to have a hard time hitting that 2026 consensus target of $6.15/share.With all of that in mind, the question remains, what should investors pay for Disney shares?Historically, they've traded at a premium to the market, in the 20-22x range.F.A.S.T. GraphsAs you can see, if Disney continues to follow the historical trend line and analysts are right about that rapid earnings growth, inventors buying shares here are going to make a lot of money.However, those are two big \"ifs\" in my book.And I don't have the faith in the media industry anymore to stick around for \"ifs\".Disney's 10 and 20-year average P/E ratios are 25x and 21.6x, respectively.However, that average is largely made up of data from before the streaming wars.And things become even more difficult to wade through when I look at more recent averages.Disney's average P/E during the past 5 years is north of 33x because of the huge premium that shares carried during 2020 and 2021 caused by its stock price and its fundamentals heading in two separate directions.F.A.S.T. GraphsIn hindsight, that was the time to sell. But, hindsight doesn't matter much in the present, and at the time, I bought into the hype that Disney+ was going to take over the world.I suppose there's an argument to be made that a 33x multiple is fair if I truly believed that Disney would compound its earnings at a 20% rate over the next several years. But, I do not.This isn't a company with secular trend trends behind it. It's dependent on the consumer and I'm not looking to pay such high multiples for any consumer discretionary stock.I decided that a ~20x multiple was probably fair. That's below historical averages, but above the broader market's premium, reflecting Disney's strong IP and double-digit growth prospects.However, 20x ttm earnings back when I sold was ~$75/share.20x forward earnings (if you believe that analysts are correct and Disney will grow its EPS by 18% this year) is nearly $89.00.I wouldn't be surprised to see 2024 be more in line with 2023 and therefore, a 20x multiple on my forward estimate was roughly $83/share.With that ttm multiple of $75/share and the forward multiple at $83/share, I was content to sell my shares at $81.60 (because with the tax-loss savings in mind, I was essentially breaking even at $83).Furthermore, when I was performing these mental gymnastics, I couldn't help but consider the fact that Comcast, which is Disney's closest peer, in my estimation (they have strong IP, television, movie, and theme park assets), was trading for roughly 10x earnings.F.A.S.T. GraphsComcast's 2024 growth forecast is essentially in line with my more conservative, ~10% growth estimate for Disney next year.What if the market is right about Comcast and that's the multiple that a mature (diversified) media company deserves to trade with?Then my 20x target for Disney would represent a gross overvaluation and potentially lose me a lot of money.The more I think about it, the more sure I am…Disney doesn't deserve a Netflix-like multiple (NFLX shares currently trade for 28.5x forward expectations).Why?Because NFLX is much less economically sensitive than Disney is.It sells a product in the $10-$20 range…whereas Disney relies on big ticket expenses from the consumer to support its bottom line.All in all, the risk/reward of Disney, relative to other blue chip dividend growers who had recently sold off, wasn't worth it to me.And it still isn't today because I don't buy into that ~20% EPS CAGR story between now and 2026.Not only does this company not meet my compounder quality thresholds…it's not a deep-value stock either.Never Fall In Love With A StockTherefore, it was sitting in no-man's land in my portfolio and when thinking about my overall financial situation, I decided to part ways with the company after years of ownership.Now that I'm pivoting towards this new compounder-centric strategy, I've had to remind myself, never fall in love with a stock (as nostalgic as Disney maybe).I have a couple of young children at home, so I'll continue to consume Disney's content and buy their merchandise regularly.People who follow my work closely know that I like trading card games and I'm excited about the potential of Lorcana moving forward. I'm thinking about buying into the Amber/Steel songs deck that's been doing well at events. That'll add to Disney's bottom line.And even though the prices are off-putting, my wife and I are going to do our best to make another trip to Disney World next winter happen (it'll be nice to get out of the cold and everyone really wants to see Main Street USA all decked out with Christmas decorations).Without a doubt, I'm a Disney fan. That hasn't changed. But, as much as I love the company's products, I no longer feel compelled to own shares.Right now, I think there are better places to allocate capital.Simply put, you won't see me owning media/entertainment pure plays anytime soon.I'll stick with big tech for that exposure:Apple (Apple+)Amazon (Prime Video)Alphabet (YouTube/YouTube TV)Those stocks provide amazing cash flows, much stronger balance sheets, and other revenue streams that benefit from secular tailwinds.And I'll target stronger companies with more predictable, reliable earnings driven by secular growth trends with any new capital that I deploy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":242328560111728,"gmtCreate":1700199399011,"gmtModify":1700199403680,"author":{"id":"4099451016804780","authorId":"4099451016804780","name":"Nase","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75fd46c54802015fad711baba153fe17","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mostly does not make sense at all what this person wanna say&nbsp;","listText":"Mostly does not make sense at all what this person wanna say&nbsp;","text":"Mostly does not make sense at all what this person wanna say","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/242328560111728","repostId":"2383842456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2383842456","pubTimestamp":1700188155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2383842456?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-17 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney Stock Is a Buy, but Not Because of Q4 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2383842456","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results last week, but that's not what makes its stock a buy. There is likely to be more bad...","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Disney</strong> (<strong><u>DIS</u></strong>) earnings offered up several positive surprises, but investors need more justification to buy.</p></li><li><p>CEO Bob Iger is committed to slashing the movie studio’s bloated production budget.</p></li><li><p>Making the theme parks a place families want to keep visiting is another top priority.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Disney</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>DIS</u></strong>) reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results last week, but that’s not what makes its stock a buy. There is likely to be more bad news in the quarters ahead that will make this report seem like a one-off. Buying the stock now because it had a single good quarter will see you dumping shares at the first sign of weakness down the road. </p><p>Yet you <em>should</em> be buying Disney stock now, anyway. Despite the problems still on the horizon, the long-term outlook remains positive. So even though it had a good quarter now, that’s not enough, but Disney can repeat the good news later on. In the meantime, you’re buying in at a discounted price. So read on to see why those seemingly contradictory statements actually make sense.</p><h2 id=\"id_1086296510\">Box office kryptonite</h2><p>Disney used to be box office gold, but a string of releases flopped. <em>The Marvels</em> just opened to a $47 million first-weekend take, the lowest of any movie in the 33-film franchise. It is likely the film will never make a profit let alone recoup its estimated $220 million production budget. Before that, the live-action remake of <em>The Little Mermaid</em> was a failure, too.</p><p>Although it earned $570 million globally, it likely didn’t make Disney a profit either. Its budget was a whopping $300 million. The rule of thumb in Hollywood is a film needs to at least double its production budget to break even. That’s because studios have to split the box office with theaters. And that doesn’t include the marketing that goes into a film.</p><p>Disney reportedly spent another $140 million to market the film worldwide. The live-action remake of <em>Snow White</em> is also steeped in controversy and its release was pushed back to 2025.</p><p>Certainly, superhero fatigue is hurting the studio, but it’s not the only thing. Disney clearly lost its way and productions cost way too much.</p><p>It’s not much better at the Disney+ streaming division either. A host of shows are getting canceled as CEO Bob Iger cracks down on the money being spent. Disney plans to save $7.5 billion in expenses compared to the previously planned $5.5 billion in savings. Iger said one of the four pillars of righting the Disney ship will be “improving the output and economics of our film studios.”</p><p>Yet Disney+ saw subscriber growth, though that was virtually all in international markets where 6.4 million new subscribers were added. The U.S. saw about a 1% increase.</p><h2 id=\"id_227338147\">Theme parks are less entertaining</h2><p>Disney theme park attendance levels are down. Disney World is a “ghost town.” High prices are part of the reason. The cost of an annual pass is rising and parking fees are going up too, making it a more expensive place to visit. Yet those higher prices helped lift segment revenue 5% and operating profits by 9% year over year.</p><p>Disney World went up again tough comparisons from last year, making this year’s results seem less impressive. But Iger noted the investments it’s making in its parks are paying off. “Over the last five years, return on invested capital has nearly doubled in our domestic parks,” he said.</p><p>Iger intends to turn around Disney by “turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences business.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3957936972\">So why buy DIS stock?</h2><p>If you’re just looking in the rearview mirror, then Disney stock is not one to buy. It’s been terribly managed with a lot of bad choices made. In many respects, Disney is even doubling down on a lot of those mistakes. It keeps green-lighting new live-action remakes, for example.</p><p>Yet Iger’s cost-cutting will have an effect. Forcing executives to justify their bloated budgets is good for the business. Wading into the culture wars was an ill-advised decision, but Disney has incredible goodwill built up with the public from decades of wholesome entertainment.</p><p>Disney stock bounced sharply higher after the earnings report, though it’s still down 23% from recent highs. As the entertainment king puts more effort into its turnaround plan, the shares represent a good value at this level. Confidence that Iger can right the listing ship will make DIS stock a long-term buy-and-hold stock.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney Stock Is a Buy, but Not Because of Q4 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney Stock Is a Buy, but Not Because of Q4 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-17 10:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/11/disney-stock-is-a-buy-but-not-because-of-q4-earnings/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Disney (DIS) earnings offered up several positive surprises, but investors need more justification to buy.CEO Bob Iger is committed to slashing the movie studio’s bloated production budget.Making the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/disney-stock-is-a-buy-but-not-because-of-q4-earnings/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/disney-stock-is-a-buy-but-not-because-of-q4-earnings/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2383842456","content_text":"Disney (DIS) earnings offered up several positive surprises, but investors need more justification to buy.CEO Bob Iger is committed to slashing the movie studio’s bloated production budget.Making the theme parks a place families want to keep visiting is another top priority.Disney (NYSE: DIS) reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results last week, but that’s not what makes its stock a buy. There is likely to be more bad news in the quarters ahead that will make this report seem like a one-off. Buying the stock now because it had a single good quarter will see you dumping shares at the first sign of weakness down the road. Yet you should be buying Disney stock now, anyway. Despite the problems still on the horizon, the long-term outlook remains positive. So even though it had a good quarter now, that’s not enough, but Disney can repeat the good news later on. In the meantime, you’re buying in at a discounted price. So read on to see why those seemingly contradictory statements actually make sense.Box office kryptoniteDisney used to be box office gold, but a string of releases flopped. The Marvels just opened to a $47 million first-weekend take, the lowest of any movie in the 33-film franchise. It is likely the film will never make a profit let alone recoup its estimated $220 million production budget. Before that, the live-action remake of The Little Mermaid was a failure, too.Although it earned $570 million globally, it likely didn’t make Disney a profit either. Its budget was a whopping $300 million. The rule of thumb in Hollywood is a film needs to at least double its production budget to break even. That’s because studios have to split the box office with theaters. And that doesn’t include the marketing that goes into a film.Disney reportedly spent another $140 million to market the film worldwide. The live-action remake of Snow White is also steeped in controversy and its release was pushed back to 2025.Certainly, superhero fatigue is hurting the studio, but it’s not the only thing. Disney clearly lost its way and productions cost way too much.It’s not much better at the Disney+ streaming division either. A host of shows are getting canceled as CEO Bob Iger cracks down on the money being spent. Disney plans to save $7.5 billion in expenses compared to the previously planned $5.5 billion in savings. Iger said one of the four pillars of righting the Disney ship will be “improving the output and economics of our film studios.”Yet Disney+ saw subscriber growth, though that was virtually all in international markets where 6.4 million new subscribers were added. The U.S. saw about a 1% increase.Theme parks are less entertainingDisney theme park attendance levels are down. Disney World is a “ghost town.” High prices are part of the reason. The cost of an annual pass is rising and parking fees are going up too, making it a more expensive place to visit. Yet those higher prices helped lift segment revenue 5% and operating profits by 9% year over year.Disney World went up again tough comparisons from last year, making this year’s results seem less impressive. But Iger noted the investments it’s making in its parks are paying off. “Over the last five years, return on invested capital has nearly doubled in our domestic parks,” he said.Iger intends to turn around Disney by “turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences business.”So why buy DIS stock?If you’re just looking in the rearview mirror, then Disney stock is not one to buy. It’s been terribly managed with a lot of bad choices made. In many respects, Disney is even doubling down on a lot of those mistakes. It keeps green-lighting new live-action remakes, for example.Yet Iger’s cost-cutting will have an effect. Forcing executives to justify their bloated budgets is good for the business. Wading into the culture wars was an ill-advised decision, but Disney has incredible goodwill built up with the public from decades of wholesome entertainment.Disney stock bounced sharply higher after the earnings report, though it’s still down 23% from recent highs. As the entertainment king puts more effort into its turnaround plan, the shares represent a good value at this level. Confidence that Iger can right the listing ship will make DIS stock a long-term buy-and-hold stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220880208584712,"gmtCreate":1694947067554,"gmtModify":1694947070866,"author":{"id":"4158006684784322","authorId":"4158006684784322","name":"Mez43","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$&nbsp;</a>cool beans&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$&nbsp;</a>cool beans&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ cool beans [Tongue] $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220880208584712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219693200687152,"gmtCreate":1694672127618,"gmtModify":1694672160539,"author":{"id":"4102740236684050","authorId":"4102740236684050","name":"MaverickWealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Why Netflix Plunged 5%?","htmlText":"Event <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> plunged 5%+ on Wednesday, due to the CFO providing relatively negative guidance at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Summit. He believes that the company's advertising business will not have a significant impact on the company in the short term and announced an operating profit margin guidance of 18-20%, which is lower than the market's consensus expectation of 22%.The market's high expectations for profit margins are mainly based on the anticipation of a high-margin advertising business, indicating that Netflix's advertising business may be constrained by certain factors.Investment HighlightsRevenue is still growing positively, but the growth expectation for ARPU should not be too high. The market","listText":"Event <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> plunged 5%+ on Wednesday, due to the CFO providing relatively negative guidance at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Summit. He believes that the company's advertising business will not have a significant impact on the company in the short term and announced an operating profit margin guidance of 18-20%, which is lower than the market's consensus expectation of 22%.The market's high expectations for profit margins are mainly based on the anticipation of a high-margin advertising business, indicating that Netflix's advertising business may be constrained by certain factors.Investment HighlightsRevenue is still growing positively, but the growth expectation for ARPU should not be too high. The market","text":"Event $Netflix(NFLX)$ plunged 5%+ on Wednesday, due to the CFO providing relatively negative guidance at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Summit. He believes that the company's advertising business will not have a significant impact on the company in the short term and announced an operating profit margin guidance of 18-20%, which is lower than the market's consensus expectation of 22%.The market's high expectations for profit margins are mainly based on the anticipation of a high-margin advertising business, indicating that Netflix's advertising business may be constrained by certain factors.Investment HighlightsRevenue is still growing positively, but the growth expectation for ARPU should not be too high. The market","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637fa185deb7e78addd973841f5808c3","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01f70a9e4fb50a2c71a795f24a4c4cd","width":"867","height":"585"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9629d534cb4cbeccc0e27182ad397a7a","width":"863","height":"549"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":184,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":22,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219693200687152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274715548779","authorId":"3479274715548779","name":"Jim1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture47","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Netflix is in more trouble than Wall Street is talking about. It could be overpriced by a factor of 4X and when the money walks it walks fast.","text":"Netflix is in more trouble than Wall Street is talking about. It could be overpriced by a factor of 4X and when the money walks it walks fast.","html":"Netflix is in more trouble than Wall Street is talking about. It could be overpriced by a factor of 4X and when the money walks it walks fast."}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}]}