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My base case for 2024 is that the S&P 500 could gain 10% to reach 5,250. The maximum drawdown is expected to be between 10% and 15%, possibly occurring in Feb-Mar or Sep-Oct based on seasonality.
The potential upside catalysts for this year may arise from a weaker dollar, multiple rate cuts, and better-than-expected EPS.
Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 may begin its correction now, having just reached its Inverted Head & Shoulders target price at 4896. However, I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 reach its Fibonacci extension levels of 127% at 5111 or 141% at 5223 before a meaningful correction occurs.
We continue to favor the Magnificent Seven, despite their already impressive rally in 2023. These stocks still exhibit faster growth compared to the remaining 493 S&P 500 stocks and stand to benefit the most from the evolution of AI.
An ideal investment strategy involves being 70% invested in the market and using the remaining 30% for short-term investing.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$
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