Here are quickly talk about technical analysis of $.SPX(.SPX)$ . Full live link replay >>Let’s take a look at the S&P 500. Here are the Fibonacci confluence zones for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ To me, the major resistance is 6,850. TA tells me that 2025 target price is 6850.If you are waiting for some support levels to accumulate, 5,900 or 5,500 may be good support levels.To me, the S&P 500 must hold above 5,900 to resume the bullish trend.Let me go through the downside and upside catalysts for the us equity marketWhat could potentially downset investors in

Let's talk about the US market outlook for 2025. Full live link replay >>1. $.SPX(.SPX)$ 2025 Year-end Forecasts:These are some of the 2025 year-end forecasts provided by various research houses for the $.SPX(.SPX)$As of 18 Dec 2024: SPX’s closing price: 5872On average, the year-end target is 6,658, representing a 13% upside compared to yesterday's closing price of 5,872.The most bullish research house is Oppen

Here are my talk about AI Industry. Full live link replay >>I have shared a lot about AI trends in the past. Just bear in mind that the AI total addressable market is huge.The valuation for a lot of AI stocks is expensive, but still not as crazily expensive as during the dot-com bubble.For example, the P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 is now trading at 35x. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was trading at 175x.1995 marked the start of internet monetization. It also kickstarted the dot-com bubble.The entire dot-com bubble lasted for 5 years, from 1995 to 2000.At its peak, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned

Here are my talk about US tariff. Full live link replay >>About one month ago, Trump said he wanted to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico,and an additional 10% on China.Basically, if the U.S. imposes tariffs on any country, that country will still want to export to the U.S. because it is difficult to find a replacement with the size and appetite of the U.S.The common way to make your goods still look affordable to U.S. companies is through currency depreciation.For example, in 2018-2019, the RMB depreciated as much as 13% when the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.Trump’s tariffs are a negotiating tactic to reach a deal.For i

First, let’s spend some time on Trump’s policy. Full live link replay >>The most important thing you need to know is that Trump’s policies are pro-growth and pro-business, which should be constructive for the U.S. equity market in 2025.For example, he has said that he wants to extend the 2017 personal tax cuts and lower the corporate tax rate.The question here is:How likely is Congress to approve Trump’s tax cut plan?The answer is quite likely because Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate.Trump also pledges to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for corporations that manufacture products in the U.S.The purpose is to

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -0.61% and +0.75%, respectively, last week.Major market movers include $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-5.75%), $Adobe(ADBE)$ (-15.78%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (-4.35%), $Oracle(ORCL)$ (-9.55%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (+25.22%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+12.08%), $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (+8.77%), and $ba(+10.21%).Important economic events this week include Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI on Monday, Ret

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned 1.08% and 0.75%, respectively.Major movers include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (-2.6%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-2.1%), $Oracle(ORCL)$ (-3.1%), $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ (-3.5%), $Autodesk(ADSK)$ (-9.1%), $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ (-7.1%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (+3.3%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+5.5%), $Mi

Background:1) Trump's TariffsTrump plans to implement a blanket tariff of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with a 60% tariff specifically on goods imported from China.According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the average tariff on Chinese goods was 19.3% in June 2023, compared to about 2.3% in 2018.Trump hopes that these tariffs will encourage U.S. companies to reshore their manufacturing operations and protect local businesses from cheaper foreign competition, as the price advantages will diminish once the tariffs are in place.In short, tariffs on imports should support domestic businesses by making foreign-made products more expensive. 2) U.S. May Revoke China’s PNTR StatusThere are growing concerns that the United States may revoke China’s Permanent Norm

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -2.05% and -3.41%, respectively, last week.Major market movers last week included: $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ (-24%), $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ (-21%), $AbbVie(ABBV)$ (-17%), $Micron Technology(MU)$ (-13%), $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ (-12%), $Walt Disney(DIS)$ (+16%), $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ (+12%), $Tapestry Inc.(TPR)

 Key Insights:Trump is likely to prioritize supporting the tech industry to strengthen the U.S.'s competitive edge and preserve its position as the global technological leader.A key focus for the incoming Trump administration will likely be securing American dominance in the global AI race, with particular emphasis on outpacing China.While antitrust lawsuits may continue to dampen investor sentiment, these legal battles are expected to drag on for years due to prolonged appeals.If Trump implements tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports, it could provoke retaliatory measures from China, potentially targeting U.S. companies that manufacture there.I remain constructive on tech companies, especially those involved in AI. Big tech companies that are involved in antitrust lawsuits, pursu

US betting sites currently show different forecasts: Polymarket: Trump wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House. PredictIt: Harris wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House.   Trump vs. Harris: The US presidential election will be decided by the Electoral College. Kamala Harris, 60, the Democratic nominee, or Donald Trump, 78, the Republican nominee, needs to win 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.   Senate: The U.S. Senate currently comprises 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, with Democrats in control. 34 out of 100 seats (one-third of the Senate) are up for election. Of these, Democrats and allied Independents hold 23 seats, while Republicans hold 11. Some analysts predict that Republicans are likely to win

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -1.35% and -1.55% last week, respectively.Major market movers include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (-4.34%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-4.15%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (-3.67%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (-8.26%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-7.51%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+5.38%), $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ (+3.64%), $Visa(V)$ (+3.20%), $

The Impact of Different Possible U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes:1) While Trump and Harris’s policies differ widely, they would not significantly affect the stock market in the event of a split Congress.Regardless of the U.S. presidential election outcome, extreme policies that could disrupt the business cycle and change the trajectory of the economy are less likely to be enacted in the case of a split Congress, such as when the House is controlled by Democrats and the Senate by Republicans.As a result, the U.S. stock market could rise further after the election if a split Congress occurs.Some investors argue that Trump’s plan will stoke inflation risk. However, I reckon investors would priced in a stronger economy and corporate earnings under trump and would have worried inflation ris