The first FOMC meeting this year will be held in the early morning of Thursday, January 31.
The market is almost sure that the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates in January, but everyone is concerned about the wording after the interest rate cut meeting, which will affect the interest rate cut probability of the FOMC meeting in March.
At present, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March is still 50-50, so the January meeting, which was not so important in previous years, becomes particularly critical, because it will affect the market speculation expectation in the next two months, while the doves are full of interest rate cut expectations in March, while the hawks are likely to continue to toss about 50-50.
After the interest rate meeting in January, it was a test for US stocks
I have discussed with you before that since bottoming out in October last year, the next important time will be in February. At present, the probability that the US stock index will still rise in January is not small. If the Fed meeting at the end of the month is superimposed, there may be a staged high point after the meeting, so we should pay attention. Fundamentals are actually well understood.
If you don't cut interest rates in March, you will break market expectations and adjust and fall back; The interest rate cut in March is in line with market expectations, and fulfilling the facts may make the index adjust. Therefore, I don't recommend you to chase the US stock index at present, and wait for correction before intervening. As for the technical point, the gap of S&P future 3650 has not been filled, and this point is still to adjust the technical support position.
The "hard bottom" of $70 for crude oil
Oil prices unconsciously broke through the downward trend line since October in the recent Red Sea attacks. The strong support of $70 shows that oil prices are unlikely to fall below this point this year. As for why $70 is so important, you can see from my live broadcast in the first two weeks, and you have made it clear enough.
Of course, knowing the bottom doesn't mean that the oil price can rise sharply now, but the main theme is to fluctuate and rise, but the risk control point of crude oil is not difficult to deal with, and the low point in the past two months will stop loss if it falls below it. If it is not broken, the long-term crude oil bulls can gradually open positions and wait for the coming of the big market.
In the short term, as long as the weekend news is not strong, there will be some adjustment pressure around US $80 in oil price, and the adjustment of US $5-6 is a normal fluctuation for crude oil, so it is advisable to adjust and arrange positions, which will have good results.
Finally, at present, the US Dollar Index's 100-point support is quite strong, and not falling below 100 will be a relatively negative performance for the Fed to cut interest rates, that is, the number of interest rate cuts will be less and slower than the market expectation. Therefore, friends who intend to short the US dollar should pay great attention to prevent the sudden pulse of the US dollar from causing relative fluctuations in other currencies. It is also so difficult for gold, so this kind of assets still have to follow the short-term trend to enter the transaction in the short term (such as the 20-day moving average, etc.), and only intervene after large fluctuations, so that it is safer.
$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2403 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2403 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2403 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2402 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Line 2403 (CLmain) $
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