all eyes on inflation data tomorrow

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is retreating from its all time high as pce (personal consumption expenditure price index) will be out tomorrow before us market opens. 

pce is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. it is one of the important data the fed looks at to adjust interest rates. 

investopedia says "The PCE measure of inflation is especially significant because officials at the Fed prefer its reading on the trajectory of inflation over the widely reported CPI."

a hotter than estimated pce will cause a dip in the stock market. the fed is done with hikes but it would mean interest rates are kept high for longer.

analysing spy pnf chart shows that the rally can last till 553. it will not be a straight line up but punctuated with pullbacks due to profit taking or adjustments in portfolio of institutional investors.

$FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is the leading indicator of spy. it is treading at this zone for a few months. it has the potential to go up to 8436 when us cuts interest rates.

$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ has rebounded from recent lows and awaits pce data to decide its direction.

the chinese market is taking a breather after the strong rebound with chinese govt buying up stocks and releasing a series of stimulus measures to restore investor confidence in the chinese market. the hong kong government just announced scraping decade long property cooling measures to stimulate the ailing property market. Bourse regulators are also reviewinf listing requirements to counter stock market slump and boost liquidity, while salary and profit taxes reduced to ease burden on residents.

do apply automatic investment system where you add shares at each 10% drop or at support zones if you know technical analysis. this way you conserve your capital while the stock is strongly downtrending. do take profit at 10% intervals or at resistance zones if you know technical analysis. this way you have capital to buy the dip. only applies to stocks in an index or warren buffett would approve. bon courage.

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merci beaucoup@TigerWire for topics and reminders

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