melson
melson
Profile:FIRE
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avatarmelson
11:13

revolution

The EV industry is on the rise, but it's not without its challenges. Here are some of the biggest threats:  * High Cost: Electric vehicles are typically more expensive than gasoline-powered cars due to the high cost of battery technology. These batteries require expensive materials and complex manufacturing processes.  * Charging Infrastructure: There just aren't enough charging stations yet, especially fast-charging stations for long trips. This can cause "range anxiety" for potential EV buyers, who worry about running out of power before they can find a place to recharge.  * Grid Capacity: The electrical grid in many places may not be able to handle the increased demand from a large number of EVs. Upgrading the grid will be a costly and time-consuming endeavor.  * Raw
revolution
avatarmelson
04-22 12:22

cool

The US semiconductor industry faces several threats, including global competition, supply chain vulnerabilities, intellectual property theft, and geopolitical tensions affecting trade and access to key resources. Additionally, there are concerns about talent shortages and the need for continuous innovation to maintain leadership in the field. Opportunities for the US semiconductor industry include increasing demand for chips in various sectors like automotive, healthcare, and IoT, as well as advancements in technologies like AI, 5G, and quantum computing. There's also potential for government investment in research and development, as well as partnerships with academia and other industries to drive innovation and strengthen the semiconductor ecosystem. middle east tensions cooled a little
cool
avatarmelson
04-19

downtrend?

In response to rising inflation, the Federal Reserve implemented a two-pronged approach:  * Interest Rate Hikes: The Fed raised the federal funds rate throughout 2022 and early 2023. This makes borrowing more expensive, which can slow economic activity and reduce inflation.  * Balance Sheet Reduction: The Fed also began reducing its balance sheet by letting its holdings of Treasury bonds mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This reduces the money supply in circulation, putting downward pressure on inflation. oil above 80, middle east tensions, supply chain disruptions are causing us inflation to remain elevated. recently fed officials reiterate that there is no urgency to reduce fed rate. the market reaction last night was from green to red. 
downtrend?
avatarmelson
04-18

semi

Several factors can impact TSMC's earnings:  * Demand for semiconductors: TSMC is a major supplier of chips for smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices. So, fluctuations in demand for these products can affect TSMC's earnings.  * Capacity utilization: TSMC is currently operating at near capacity. If demand weakens, it could lead to underutilized capacity and lower earnings.  * Pricing: TSMC's pricing power is a key factor in its profitability. If TSMC is forced to lower prices due to competition or other factors, it could hurt its earnings.  * Costs: TSMC's costs are also important. Rising costs of materials, labor, or other expenses could squeeze its profit margins.  * Geopolitical factors: TSMC is a Taiwanese company, and geopolitical tensions betwee
semi
avatarmelson
04-17

cyber?

Tesla's stock price has declined in 2024 due to several factors, including:  * Softer demand for EVs: The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive, and Tesla may be facing some challenges in maintaining its sales growth.  * Increased competition: Traditional automakers and new EV startups are investing heavily in developing their own electric vehicles. This competition could put pressure on Tesla's market share and profitability.  * Lower-than-expected delivery numbers: Tesla's Q1 2024 deliveries fell short of analyst estimates, which spooked some investors.  * Production challenges: Tesla has faced some production challenges in 2024, which have also contributed to the decline in its stock price. recently cybertruck delivery is delayed without explan
cyber?
avatarmelson
04-16

fear

There isn't a clear-cut cause-and-effect relationship between epidemics and world wars. World Wars I and II, for instance, weren't direct consequences of widespread diseases. However, epidemics can play a role in creating conditions that make war more likely. Here's how:  * Social unrest: Epidemics can cause widespread death, economic hardship, and social disruption. This can lead to anger and resentment, which can be exploited by leaders to push for war.  * Weakened governments: Epidemics can strain government resources and make it difficult for them to maintain order. This can create a power vacuum that can be filled by extremist groups or foreign powers.  * Competition for resources: If an epidemic creates scarcity of resources, like food or medical supplies, it can lead
fear
avatarmelson
04-15

tension

tension in the middle east is sparking. oil is nearing 90. oil above 80 is destabilizing for stocks as this would mean inflation is resilient.  $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ tracks the dow jones industrial average the 30 largest market cap companies. looking at its pnf, it shows a confirmation downtrend with 3 red circles. it might retrace to 367 where the previous high is.  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  tracks the s&p500 - 500 largest market cap companies. it might follow the lead of the large caps and retrace to 480.  $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ tracks the small caps companies. small caps are the most sensit
tension
avatarmelson
04-12

bite?

us market bounced back after a day of sell off due to hotter than expected cpi. nvda rose for the second consecutive day brushing off the hot cpi. $Apple(AAPL)$  made the biggest jump in a day. time to take a bite? aapl's pnf showed that it had reached the support level at 168. it has yet to show confirmation of an uptrend with 3 green crosses. the candlestick chart suggests that it needs to break the downtrend resistance line before a change in trend is established.  aapl earnings is round the corner. Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report its second fiscal quarter earnings on May 2nd, 2024. Analysts are expecting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.51, which is slightly lower than the $1.52 reported for the same
bite?
avatarmelson
04-11

rosy?

cpi came in hotter than expected. some analyst estimate only 1 rate cut instead of the 3 that fed officials suggested.  the wars around the world seems to be expanding rather than abating. this is most likely due to a very old us president in position. relative to trump, Biden is indecisive and easily cajoled. this has resulted in high energy prices and oil above 80. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  scored a big rebound last night although us cpi is hotter than expected. according to its pnf it is still on an uptrend.$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ tracks the chip makers as well as the semiconductor industry. its pnf is also on an uptrend. however if you observe their candles
rosy?
avatarmelson
04-09

neo?

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$  faces huge competition in the ev market. due to the lack of battery swap infrastructure, chinese adoption of hybrid ev is higher than fully electric. nio is burning lots of cash to build the battery swap infrastructure and even roping in partners. in this high interest environment, nio has little choice but to dilute shareholders to raise cash. it was bankrupt once, will it crash and burn again?  it's pnf shows that nio is back to its all time low. $MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM(EVS.SI)$ tracks the overall chinese ev market. its pnf shows a rebound from its all time low and is trending up.  Chinese EV make
neo?
avatarmelson
04-08

hot?

There are two main factors contributing to high inflation right now: supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. Supply chain issues caused by the pandemic continue to cause problems, making it difficult and expensive to get goods to consumers. The war in Ukraine has also driven up energy and food prices, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of these commodities. oil above 80 is also causing market jitters. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is hovering, sometimes dipping due to profit taking. many are fomo, just in case the fed decides to cut rates though inflation remains high. $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is trying to make new highs as some fed officials sig
hot?
avatarmelson
04-05
avatarmelson
04-04

oil

Oil prices are rising due to a combination of factors, including:  * Supply cuts by major oil producers: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have agreed to cut production, limiting the global oil supply.  * Rising demand: As the global economy recovers from the pandemic, demand for oil is increasing. This is particularly evident in China, the world's second-largest economy.  * Geopolitical tensions: Recent events in the Middle East, such as the Israeli airstrike on an Iranian embassy in Syria, have raised concerns about disruptions to oil supplies. $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ should be challenging its all time high at 100 soon. $WTI Crude O
oil
avatarmelson
04-03

leader laggard

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  is the leader of the ai craze. it almost reached the 3.618 Fibonacci retracement level before retreating. its pnf has yet to confirm a downtrend. $Micron Technology(MU)$ is trailing behind, it has just briefly touched its 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level before retreating below. its pnf also has not shown a reversal of trend.  the fed is also contributing to the rally by its dovish stance inspite of resilient inflation. oil is on the rising trend. when oil is above $80, stocks will waver. the overall sense is that mu will continue its retreat after the last burst effort to reach the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level. there are many gaps below.
leader laggard
avatarmelson
04-02

musk

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  dived yesterday upon price increase in the us by $1k. towards the end of the trading day, the price recovered to only close down for the day by 0.32%. looking at the candlestick chart, there is a gap up at 165.18 to fill and some more gaps below. by the pnf chart, it has room to fall till 156.  the high fed interest rate is causing a huge strain on the company. elon has called for interest rates to be lowered numerous times.  $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$  looks under strain. a pullback will be healthy normalisation of prices. qqq is the indicator for tech companies. tech companies are under strain of high interest
musk
avatarmelson
04-01

big and small

small caps $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ lags behind large caps $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ . dia had already made a new all time high but small caps have yet to do so. small caps lag behind because of the high fed interest rate. the large caps are more able to coup with the high fed interest rate by economies of scale.  iwm's pnf showed it is at resistance zone. breaking above this resistance zone would mean that sector rotation is in play. this would mean$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  would continue to make new highs until the small caps run out of steam.  dia has potential to reach 420, 1.618 of Fibonacci retrac
big and small
avatarmelson
03-28

donald j trump

$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ meteoric rise fits the owner trump. this year we will have a presidential rematch between biden and trump. this is one of the intangible assets of djt. another one is trump's fame even if he doesn't win the election.  short sellers for djt have to pay very high fees to borrow shares to short. the other way to short is to buy puts.  djt behaves like meme stocks. the recent $Reddit(RDDT)$ and $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ listings were very volatile. vfs ended in a meteor shower... djt may have more upside above 95 as intangible assets are hard to measure and depends on subjectivity do apply automatic investment system
donald j trump
avatarmelson
03-27

tsla

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  has been on a bear trend. recently the rocket launch was hailed a success but the rocket went missing. cathie wood doubled down on tsla as tsla share price trends down.  looking at tsla's pnf, it is heading towards 158 to form a double bottom before rebounding to 243.  tsla is the leader of the ev industry. ev industry growth is declining. tsla is trying very hard to maintain market share by cutting prices. a price war in the ev industry is raging. this eats into profits and even causes huge losses in small ev stocks. some ev stocks went bankrupt.  the ev industry is heavily affected by the fed interest rate. borrowing cost went from easy money to sky high. the recent fomc meeting
tsla
avatarmelson
03-26

agm

$Apple(AAPL)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  meta were hit by eu probe digital market act. this may lead to huge fines. previously, the rumor has it that aapl might adopt googl's generative ai. soon after the probe was announced.  aapl has potential to run up to 220 according to Fibonacci retracement applied to pnf chart. however, it might pullback to 166 before rebounding up. googl has potential to go up to 190 according to Fibonacci retracement applied to pnf chart. however, it has probably recently jumped up just to clear the gap down from 151.19. the recent jump up also resulted in a gap up from 143.18. looking at the lost in mome
agm
avatarmelson
03-25

spy

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is the etf for $S&P 500(.SPX)$  . according to the pnf for spy, it has potential to hit 550. that translates to about 5500 for spx. it should be able to hit this level by end of this year. in the midst, it will most likely be punctuated with consolidation, pullbacks, corrections, etc.  the bull trend normally lasts for 4 to 10 years. the bear trend can last 1 to 2 years. if you examine the pnf chart, you can see that spy is mostly on an uptrend.  another important indicator to track is $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$ , it is the leading indicator o
spy

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