Summary
The $DJIA(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ wrapped up an outstanding first quarter with record highs, signaling a strong start to 2024 for the stock market.
DowJones
While the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ slipped slightly, both the Dow and S&P 500 saw substantial gains. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$
As markets close for Good Friday, investors eagerly await the release of the personal-consumption expenditures price index, providing insights into inflation trends.
Key Points
Quarterly Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 achieved record highs, marking the end of a remarkable first quarter. The S&P 500 recorded its best start to a year since 2019, with gains of 10.2%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
Historical Significance: Strong first-quarter gains historically bode well for the market's performance throughout the year. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 gains 10% or more in the first quarter, it has finished the year higher 91% of the time, with an average gain of 6.5% for the remainder of the year.
Upcoming Data Release: Investors await the release of the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal income and outlays report. Economists anticipate a 0.4% rise in the headline PCE price index for February, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%.
Fed's Interest Rate Outlook: Despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, recent economic data, including stronger-than-expected inflation figures, suggest a potential delay in rate cuts. The Fed's decision will depend on incoming data on inflation and economic growth, with some economists projecting a possibility of no rate cuts in 2024.
Market Reaction: While interest-rate futures markets currently imply a low probability of no rate cuts in 2024, some experts suggest this scenario could become more plausible if inflation continues to outpace expectations. Policymakers worldwide are balancing the need to address inflation concerns without hindering economic growth.
Inflation
Conclusion
The first quarter of 2024 has seen significant gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, setting a positive tone for the rest of the year.
However, uncertainties remain regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the trajectory of inflation, which will continue to influence market sentiment in the coming months.
The information provided in this summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trading in financial markets involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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