3 Key Factors are going to determine the path of Industrial Metals

Image

3 Key Factors are going to determine the path of that chart above...

Global: Reacceleration vs Recession
China: Stimulus vs Downturn
Thematics: Capex boom

1）On Reacceleration vs Recession

Recently seeing more evidence for the former

-leading indicators turning up

-manufacturing PMIs rebounding

-global trade volume recession ending

Basically we are seeing a good old fashioned hard cyclical upturn, bolstered by the inventory cycle

2）On China Stimulus vs Downturn

It's complicated:

-the property downturn remains entrenched

--this is not good for commodities

-but: a pain point seems to be activated

--February saw a -50bp RRR cut and -25bp rate cut

Stimulus is coming...

3）On Thematics

A multi-pronged Capex Boom is underway

-clean energy transition and EVs

-infrastructure investment

-reshoring and factor building

-war, space, AI, hard tech revival

We may look back at the 2020's as the decade of hardware (vs 2010's decade of software)

This all lines up with the generally bullish outlook on commodities, but also has meaningful macro implications (reacceleration + resurgence will mean a vastly different regime from that of the past 18-months: very meaningful for Asset Allocation!) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$

https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1777808346025967780

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yansuji
04-10
yansuji
This article is so on point, can help you make some serious bank lor.

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alt=\"Image\" title=\"Image\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e101b76971fd9d6f5bc838fa2cb1592\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>Image</span></p><p>3 Key Factors are going to determine the path of that chart above...</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Global: Reacceleration vs Recession</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>China: Stimulus vs Downturn</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Thematics: Capex boom</strong></p></li></ol><p>1）On Reacceleration vs Recession</p><p>Recently seeing more evidence for the former</p><p><strong>-leading indicators turning up</strong></p><p><strong>-manufacturing PMIs rebounding</strong></p><p><strong>-global trade volume recession ending</strong></p><p>Basically we are seeing a good old fashioned hard cyclical upturn, bolstered by the inventory cycle</p><p>2）On China Stimulus vs Downturn</p><p>It's complicated:</p><p><strong>-the property downturn remains entrenched</strong></p><p><strong>--this is not good for commodities</strong></p><p><strong>-but: a pain point seems to be activated</strong></p><p><strong>--February saw a -50bp RRR cut and -25bp rate cut</strong></p><p>Stimulus is coming...</p><p>3）On Thematics</p><p>A multi-pronged Capex Boom is underway</p><p><strong>-clean energy transition and EVs</strong></p><p><strong>-infrastructure investment</strong></p><p><strong>-reshoring and factor building</strong></p><p><strong>-war, space, AI, hard tech revival</strong></p><p>We may look back at the 2020's as the decade of hardware (vs 2010's decade of software)</p><p>This all lines up with the generally bullish outlook on commodities, but also has meaningful macro implications (reacceleration + resurgence will mean a vastly different regime from that of the past 18-months: very meaningful for Asset Allocation!) <a data-mention-id=\".SPX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"S&amp;P 500\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".IXIC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NASDAQ\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".DJI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"DJIA\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a> </p><p>https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1777808346025967780</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"Image\" title=\"Image\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e101b76971fd9d6f5bc838fa2cb1592\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>Image</span></p><p>3 Key Factors are going to determine the path of that chart above...</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Global: Reacceleration vs Recession</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>China: Stimulus vs Downturn</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Thematics: Capex boom</strong></p></li></ol><p>1）On Reacceleration vs Recession</p><p>Recently seeing more evidence for the former</p><p><strong>-leading indicators turning up</strong></p><p><strong>-manufacturing PMIs rebounding</strong></p><p><strong>-global trade volume recession ending</strong></p><p>Basically we are seeing a good old fashioned hard cyclical upturn, bolstered by the inventory cycle</p><p>2）On China Stimulus vs Downturn</p><p>It's complicated:</p><p><strong>-the property downturn remains entrenched</strong></p><p><strong>--this is not good for commodities</strong></p><p><strong>-but: a pain point seems to be activated</strong></p><p><strong>--February saw a -50bp RRR cut and -25bp rate cut</strong></p><p>Stimulus is coming...</p><p>3）On Thematics</p><p>A multi-pronged Capex Boom is underway</p><p><strong>-clean energy transition and EVs</strong></p><p><strong>-infrastructure investment</strong></p><p><strong>-reshoring and factor building</strong></p><p><strong>-war, space, AI, hard tech revival</strong></p><p>We may look back at the 2020's as the decade of hardware (vs 2010's decade of software)</p><p>This all lines up with the generally bullish outlook on commodities, but also has meaningful macro implications (reacceleration + resurgence will mean a vastly different regime from that of the past 18-months: very meaningful for Asset Allocation!) <a data-mention-id=\".SPX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"S&amp;P 500\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".IXIC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NASDAQ\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".DJI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"DJIA\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a> </p><p>https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1777808346025967780</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"Image 3 Key Factors are going to determine the path of that chart above... Global: Reacceleration vs Recession China: Stimulus vs Downturn Thematics: Capex boom 1）On Reacceleration vs Recession Recently seeing more evidence for the former -leading indicators turning up -manufacturing PMIs rebounding -global trade volume recession ending Basically we are seeing a good old fashioned hard cyclical upturn, bolstered by the inventory cycle 2）On China Stimulus vs Downturn It's complicated: -the property downturn remains entrenched --this is not good for commodities -but: a pain point seems to be activated --February saw a -50bp RRR cut and -25bp rate cut Stimulus is coming... 3）On Thematics A multi-pronged Capex Boom is underway -clean energy transition and EVs -infrastructure investment -reshoring and factor building -war, space, AI, hard tech revival We may look back at the 2020's as the decade of hardware (vs 2010's decade of software) This all lines up with the generally bullish outlook on commodities, but also has meaningful macro implications (reacceleration + resurgence will mean a vastly different regime from that of the past 18-months: very meaningful for Asset Allocation!) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1777808346025967780","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":80,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/293647294324736","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[".DJI",".SPX",".IXIC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1115,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":293673252130912,"gmtCreate":1712717087705,"gmtModify":1712814477321,"authorId":9000000000000728,"author":{"id":9000000000000728,"authorId":9000000000000728,"name":"yansuji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba71a756adc2f43bd544131cd631463","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":293647294324736,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"This article is so on point, can help you make some serious bank lor.","text":"This article is so on point, can help you make some serious bank lor.","html":"This article is so on point, can help you make some serious bank lor.","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/293647294324736"}