1.Barrier or Breakout?The "hours of work required to buy an ounce of Gold" indicator is approaching a familiar sticking point and historical stumbling block for the gold price. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.The "Prospective Equity Risk Premium" (i.e. based on forward-looking expected returns) is set to be negative for the USA and positive for the rest of the world...Here's how this will impact investors and asset allocation decisions $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Image3.Here's a simple (but useful) framework for figuring out when to go maximum growth vs defense in asset allocation(of course there is t

1.Huh... there's more Fortune 500 companies that were founded before 1950 than after.--the average Fortune 500 company is over 90-years old (?!) 🤯Image2.Fun Fact: the equal-weighted S&P500 has historically outperformed the cap-weighted version...the recent dominance of a handful of mega-caps is unusual, and represents a sharp deviation from trend 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageThis makes logical sense cap-weight:-skews into bubbly sectors-skews into mature companiesequal-weight:-skews into newer growth companies-skews into undervalued stocks and sectors3.The higher-for-longer script for US 10yr bond yields if the Fed is done hereImage

1.Range Trade for longer?Or big breakout coming?Things to consider:Image2.Gold vs BondsA 30-year(!) Ascending Triangle pattern in the works: $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image3.The higher-for-longer script for US 10yr bond yields if the Fed is done hereImage4.Did you know......the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returnsImage5.The path is similar, but one thing that is different, and probably helps explain some of the difference: starting point valuationstoday's investors early in the wealth building process have to navigate extremely high valuations in both the stock market and the housing marketdo you agree?Image

1.Different this time?Here's a look back at the dot com bubble -- and yes it was and is very different now vs then... in many ways.But are there similarities? (tell me there isn't 😤 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $Cisco(CSCO)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ Image2."Cash is trash"Fund Manager cash allocations at a record low...(albeit to be fair, bonds and commodities are cheap, so if not stocks then those and not cash)Image3.Fund managers think US stocks will be the best performing asset in 2025 (and almost none of them think bonds will be) Fascinating...Image4.Here's how valuations are tracking for 2 key cohorts within Global Equities

1.Heading into year-end, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ and the $.SPX(.SPX)$ are neck and neck for top spot.There’s still 11 trading days left (as of the time of writing), and anything could happen, but certainly for now 2024 has so far been a very good year for gold:Image2.Kind of interesting that even in this day and age of mass-disruption and innovation that some of the oldest stocks put in some of the best performance...(brb, looking up list of 100yr+ old stocks 😅 )Image3.Energy Stocks are cheap...(on a relative basis)Cheap alternative hedge?Image

1.Global Equity Relative Value Trinity-Small vs Large-Value vs Growth-Global ex-US vs USWhat's happening and what to watch for investors: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.Interesting look at historical returns for public vs private markets, basically:Public markets = beta-drivenPrivate markets = alpha-drivenImage3.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and

1.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns ---but gotta say the recent experience leaves a lot to be desired... $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image2.China is back in the market, who's driving the market into 2025, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ vs Bond market echoes, and Work required to buy gold...3.Crazy Chart-bubbles are not a new thing-even the smartest muck it up--how can you learn from this?Image4.Stockmarket investors don't care about yield.(at least that's the message we get in the chart below)The US stockmarket dividend yield is close to 1% --a bit more if you include the impact of buybacks, but still far below fixed income alte

1.Fundamentals vs Technicals...What if I told you one of the most fundamental of fundamental information: earnings growth, was actually working more like a technical indicator?Turns out Analyst consensus earnings expectations function more like a sentiment indicator -- basically giving a contrarian signal rather than a fundamental justification to be bullish or bearish. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Value investing tends to rely on market extremes, at least in the way that most people understand it......but markets don't spend much time at extremes, so you need to have a plan for that space betweenImage3.The only way you can be bullish here is if you expect a repeat of the dot com b

1."Don't worry, stocks and bonds *almost never* both fall at the same time"1931, 1969, 2022: 👺 Not a reason to discard stocks or bonds, and especially not a reason to discard asset allocation, but certainly a prompt to be more clever about diversification efforts and investment process... 🤓 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Because interest rates usually go down in a garden variety recession... I think bonds still have a role to play in diversification, but also there will be trading opportunities (in either direction)Image2.Gold & Bonds: a curious thing in common...In recent times gold and bonds have had a tendency to follow similar price cycles, wit

1.China is back into the Gold marketKey development given the geopolitical landscape heading into 2025, not to mention the recent policy announcements by China.Implications for precious metals $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.Industrial Metals are stuck in the middle of the range...keep an eye on this oneit may well tell us about the next big global macro regime shift (recession vs reacceleration)Image3.Never forget, this time it’s different.But seriously, what do you think folks? Is growing central banks demand a game changer for gold?Image4.Longer-term perspective on Credit Spreads...As it relates to the stockmarket?-Spikes = Good Buy-Lows = Good Bye $.SPX(.SPX)$

1.Interesting trend...More and more companies conducting IPOs in America are foreign… if you take that to the extreme, over time you would expect a greater proportion of US listed companies to actually be global/non-US companies. The consensus is global is cheap vs US expensive, only one thing to do there if you want to max proceeds or min cost of capitalKind of muddies the US vs global stocks allocation debate! 😅 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$

1.Those who buy, boom-better with practice?-anti-competitive impact?-or simply survivorship bias?Sure seems to be a pattern thereImage2.Commodities are one of the few asset classes showing up as actually *cheap* on an absolute basis...Why and when this mattersImage3.Study the history of markets so you can be a victor and not a victim when it comes to investing profitably and with peace of mind:Image4.Compare and Contrast -- central banks are running 30-year high allocations to gold 👀👀👀Image

1.Fast Growth-easy to grow fast once-hard to grow fast consistentlyConsistent fast growth is rare and special (and unusual --unlikely; cherish it if you find it, doubt if you're sold it!!) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.No one will believe this is possible. 😐 But here's a question...What if it happens?What if what worked magnificently over the past decade dumps and the rest trumps? Image3.Long-term US Corporate Earnings growth in perspective:Image

1.Recession Trading... Stocks typically drop the most within the first 6-months of recessionBut actually do decent in the final stages $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Do bonds still have a roll in modern asset allocation strategies?YESThe stats on bonds as a diversifier are extremely compelling, albeit I would note you need to pay attention to risk management and changing conditions (and p.s. 2022 was highly predictable, avoidable)Image3.Retail investors could not care less about the new bull market in gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ .Portfolio allocations still hovering around the lows: Image

1.Back to the 1990's!Reserves allocation to gold has climbed to the highest level since the 1990's How much higher will it go?What if allocations went back to 1970's levels... more: Image2. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia fans will be looking at this chart and highlighting how GM stayed a heavyweight of the index for most of the 1950's/60's $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Population growth is slowing globally...Problem?Image4.Stock Market still doesn't know what to do with Renewable Energy...Boom or bust?Bull or bear?The answer will probably soon be here: Image

1.Gold Market prognosis-gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ price (US$) is overvalued-sentiment/positioning contrarian bearish-(but) trend is still strong +monetary tailwindsCheck out the detail behind this gold market snapshot: Image2.Remember those simple market cycle charts? How clean and clear it all is... Here's how it really works -- almost always harder than you think while you are in the processImage3.Bubbles are one of the most fascinating aspects of finance and human/crowd psychology... these historical examples go to show how this phenomenon is a constant through time because people are a constant. Also kind of makes your head spin seeing prices go up 10x in the space of a year (and right back down again).

1.Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ is Overvalued.This is true whether you look at mean reversion, real prices, or deviation from cost of production...But there is one aspect that looks "cheap", AND a few other key factors to consider: Image2.Gold Market Chartbook - November 2024The monthly Gold Market Chartbook is specifically designed to help busy investors like you quickly and easily understand the key drivers of risk vs opportunity in the gold market...Image3.Something broke in the gold market in 2022Image

1.Stockmarket return drivers-dividends = consistent but declining-earnings = important but variable-valuations = best friend or worst enemy!Focus on earnings and dividends for long-term growth, monitor valuations for risk and cyclical opportunity $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Gold appears to be embarking on a new big bull market...But what's driving this? --is it actually sustainable?Image3.Start-ups and Entrepreneurship is glorified as a youngster's game, but it seems statistically the best age to start a company is in your 50's (based on this paper).Not only is it never too late to start, it might even be better to start later.From "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship"Image