While I touched upon the cycle/concept of navigating credit spreads above, I thought it might be useful to show a credit spread version of the typical stockmarket cycle from this article (click).Credit spreads go through cycles, just like the stockmarket (but inverted) — they reach the lows during times of economic expansion and boom, start to increase later in the cycle as policy tightens and investors grow wary of previous excess risk-taking.And then at some stage a breakpoint is reached where the data deteriorates, defaults begin to rise, and often times some sort of crisis or credit event unfolds and credit spreads blow out to very high levels.Eventually, they reach a peak, often precipitated by some sort of intervention or stimulus announcements to ring-fence the crisis and/or trigger

Despite the surge in gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ , retail investor allocations to gold are still seemingly quite light vs history — at least based on the market share of gold ETFs (aka implied allocations).Part of this does have to do with the fact that there are a lot more other ETF investment options now, and the stockmarket has significantly outpaced gold over the past decade. But at the same time, if retail were all-in and filling their boots with gold ETFs, it would be reflected in this chart… and if folk believed gold offered superior returns then they would rotate in. And that’s just not what we’re seeing here.It’s even more pronounced in gold mining stocks. And as mentioned recently in our premium reports, gold mine

1.Endangered Species-sell-side analysts are in decline-(red dot is 2020 data)Many reasons for this (regulatory, competitive, passive investing, data democratization, etc), and maybe some unintended consequences: Image2.Seasonally speaking, the worst may soon be over... and it won't be long before everyone is starting to chatter about year-end rallies!Seasonality in focus: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Image

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$Fast Growth-easy to grow fast once-hard to grow fast consistentlyConsistent fast growth is rare and special (and unusual... unlikely; cherish it if you find it, doubt if you're sold it!)Image2.Tech capex vs Commodity capex--there’s only so long that tech can expand without commodity producers digging up the stuff they need to make things tech runs on and enables ...or the energy to power them for that matter!Image3.Bond Yields After Rate CutsAs you might guess, 10-year treasury yields $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ tended to drift lower into the first rate cut, but in basically every instance bond yields pushed higher in the subsequent 18-months.This would have reflected th

Chart of the Week - One and DoneHow markets react to short Fed rate cutting cyclesWith macro still very much mixed and resurgence risk a real possibility, we need to think about the prospect of the Fed finding itself in a “one-and-done“ situation on interest rate cuts.This could result from any combination of global stimulus surprises (arguably already underway e.g. surge in rate cuts, China stimulus), a benign/business friendly election outcome that removes uncertainty and sees pent-up expansion efforts by business stepped up, ongoing resilient labor market and services sector, higher for longer inflation, and/or a new commodities bull market.It’s probably not the base case for most people, and from the Fed’s perspective — this is actually the risk they would prefer… arguably they cut rat

1.Global Multi-Asset Investors!Here's how to uncover the very best opportunities (and detect the very worst risks) using just valuation indicators: Image2.Peaky Markets-things can change fast and furious-but eventually get back on track-and with ample opportunitiesImage $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100