Options Spy | S&p 500 defensive bullish, Nasdaq expected volatility

US Major Stock Index Futures All Rise

According to IDC data, Apple's iPhone shipments in the first quarter fell 9.6%, with a 17.3% market share, ranking second. Tesla issued a company-wide email, announcing a 10% global workforce reduction. Reports suggest Intel may launch a Chinese special version of the Gaudi 3 AI accelerator chip. News also indicates that Richard Liu may personally livestream, with JD.com responding that they are preparing and will appear in a new form.

• In the short term, the S&P 500 index is expected to remain below 520. The major options trades include an April 17 expiry 525/520 call spread, suggesting the index will top out around 520 that week.

• For the medium term, the S&P 500's downside may be limited. The May 17 expiry 486/489 put spread strategy implies a drop of no more than 5% by expiration.

• For the Nasdaq 100 options, the April 19 expiry 441 calls and 427 puts show selling as the dominant flows, signaling a narrow trading range of +/- 3% for that day.

Details:

The $SPY$ options indicate a slightly bullish trading bias overall, with call selling dominating flows while put open interest remains elevated versus 52-week averages.

The most active new $SPY$ call is the 04/17 525 strike$SPY 20240417 525.0 CALL$  with 41k contracts added. For puts, it's the 05/17 486 strike $SPY 20240517 486.0 PUT$  at 40k new positions.

The largest $SPY$ new put trade is a call spread, buying the 04/17 525 calls $SPY 20240417 525.0 CALL$  and selling the 520 calls$SPY 20240417 520.0 CALL$ , expecting $SPY < 520 by April 17 expiry.

The two largest $SPY$ new put trades are put spreads, selling the 489 puts while buying the 486 puts with the same May 17 expiry, strategizing for a downside of no more than 5% by then.

For $QQQ$, the most active new call is the 04/19 441 strike $QQQ 20240419 441.0 CALL$  with 26k contracts added as sells, suggesting rangebound trading ahead of that expiry. The biggest new $QQQ$ put is the 04/19 427 strike $QQQ 20240419 427.0 PUT$  with 9,463 contracts sold, implying <3% downside into that day.