$S&P 500(.SPX)$ MELDOWN!
I will stand by this statement, "We are in a bull market and we are currently seeing a short term correction. Fear is a buy"
• RSI falling under 50 and Bears keeping the bear gap open for over the week, both cues worked out perfectly to judge the weekly break down on SPX
• Looking at the RSI we are definitely at an over sold level, but it is not a cue to buy the dip for short term trading.
• Long term strategy remains on elevated $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (CSPs)
• MACD and RSI currently are in full control of the bears.
• This market leaders are Semis, and when the leaders are selling the sentiment in the market cannot stay opposite.
• I understand everyone is looking for that relief bounce. just like everyone predicted the market to go down for 3 months since January. Oversold can remain oversold and overbought can remain overbought for however long they can. The question is can you remain solvent?
• Anyway, as a technical trader if you are looking for a relief bounce you need a break and close of the trend line that I have shared on the 65 min chart last week. Until that trendline is not broken, the selling pressure continues and the better risk reward is to the downside in the short term.
• FEDs back out period starting next week all the way until may, the geopolitical tensions will be the main focus.
• Strictly talking levels here, 4960 break is 4900. Losing 4900 opens a quick draw down to 4870 and 4800.
• Relief bounce can target 5000 and 5055 once the trendline (talked above) breaks.
FLOW UPDATE: $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ remains most bearish of all the indexed. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ has had quite a bit of bearish flow into earnings.
$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 850P into halving stood out. I will keep this section updated through the week. This sell off is absolutely beautiful and dont panic on the long term portfolio.
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