How Strong Will Chinese Stocks Perform?

MaverickWealthBuilder
04-23

The performance of Hong Kong stocks has been good lately.

$TENCENT(00700)$ stopped repurchasing on April 15th and not only remained stable during the external callback but also rose continuously this week.

Blockbuster game DNF mobile game's launch is confirmed, and the market expects a significant increase in Q1 net profit.

However, what is more important is

  1. $Naspers Ltd.(NPSNY)$ which has seen a decrease in the reduction of holdings for two consecutive weeks.

  2. Continuous inflow of central capital

  3. Outflow of funds brought by the decline in the US stocks, is stimulating the emerging markets quite significantly.

Similarly, Meituan-W (03690) also experienced similar fluctuations, with the reason for the increase in investor sentiment being that Douyin's overall GMV in local life did not meet market expectations, and the gap with Meituan remains significant.

After the withdrawal of Chinese concept stocks in the past two years, the liquidity is not as good as before, so any slight changes can bring about abnormal volatility.

Of course, in the US stock market, Chinese concept stocks like $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ have even greater volatility than US tech stocks.

Market sold off previously due to concerns about geopolitical influences. Therefore, the current rebound is just a gradual easing of the previous sentiment.

Before considering investing in Chinese concept stocks, investors still need to carefully consider the following issues

  1. Hong Kong stock liquidity is still relatively low in the entire market, and it is easier to achieve higher gains in the rebound, but at the same time, this is not the performance of a mature market;

  2. if it is due to the correction of US tech stocks and investors need to rebalance, then Hong Kong stocks can attract some inflow of funds, which may lead to a small rebound, but in essence, it is just a rebalancing, possibly just a supplement to the emerging markets and not become the main position for investors;

  3. US stocks themselves are differentiated, the defensive sector has recently shown strength, but the Chinese concept stock market does not have defensive attributes. If US tech stocks continue to experience a larger correction, then the rebound of Chinese concept stocks still lacks the fundamental basis of funding;

  4. the macro trend is still a decisive factor, and expectations of inflation and interest rate cuts are the decisive factors of investors' risk preferences.

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