As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.
The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.
But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for short sellers to effectively suppress the price below the previous historical high of 2150, so this level can be used as a stop loss point after bottom-hunting or a long-short strength conversion position.
It is not difficult to find from the graph that there are many obvious gaps in this round of rising market, including 2350/2280/2238/2177/2160. Although there are factors such as contract month change, the upward momentum and breakthrough power of the market itself at that time cannot be ignored. Based on this, we expect the final pullback position to be completed near these gaps.
In Fibonacci's case, lows are most likely to form in the 2220-2270 range, while the most aggressive pullback/retracement may see around 2170. Considering that there is no sign of bottoming out on the small-level hourly chart, we can let the bullets fly for a while, and then observe whether the price can stabilize near the key position, and then consider the profit-loss ratio of buying bottoms.
In addition to gold, the U.S. stock index is actually undergoing a normal technical correction recently, which actually helps to promote the slow bull market. Taking the S&P as an example, the current lowest pullback/retracement has reached 4963. Compared with the high point of 5333, there has not been a 10% adjustment, but the duration has been three weeks. At the same time, the adjustment of the leading brother Nvidia is more obvious. It has already filled an obvious gap below, and there are variables if the next gap far away from 660 can be filled.
From a historical point of view, a 10-15% correction in the index is basically the limit of a bull market adjustment, unless there is panic selling triggered by a black swan. Even so, in the past decade or so, the bull market in US stocks has not ended. Coupled with the political and economic situation before the U.S. election that we have analyzed before, the strategy of buying big and big, buying small and buying small is still the most important direction to implement in the next six months. A recent example is the Bitcoin market: after a continuous scramble for the 60,000 level, the bulls are now in control again.
In summary, more than half of the adjustment of the US stock index has been completed. Once the index stocks confirm the bottom, they should be positive and bullish; The adjustment of gold is still in progress, you can't enter the market prematurely, you can continue to wait for better prices and timing.
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