Key point：Whether gold can post a meaningful new high is a key yardstick for judging whether silver is due for a sharp pullback.Driven by silver’s relentless march to new highs, gold finally showed some movement last week. However, on the one hand, even as futures made new highs, spot prices have not yet kept pace; on the other hand, the futures “new high” itself looked more symbolic than decisive. This reluctance to follow silver is concerning. Although silver has effectively been the true leader since April this year, gold’s historical status means its value still cannot be ignored.​To break its prior historical high, gold futures took two months—far behind silver—and even after the breakout, the contrast between the two is stark. When silver broke out in November, that week produced a s

Year-end is usually a quiet period, when markets thin out and traders take time off—but hold on and get through this week first. For FX traders in particular, after several years of dull price action, the key that could set a major move in motion for 2026 may well be this week.​More specifically, beyond the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike, close attention also needs to be paid to possible shifts in monetary policy at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. If the major G7 central banks all choose to bring their easing cycles to an end, while the United States—under a new Fed chair in the future—moves against that trend, then the trend driven by rate differentials/spread differentials could be enormous.​The U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of weakening across 2025; s

Last week, silver surged to a new high even as gold’s performance lagged significantly, far exceeding my earlier expectations. In hindsight, this trading and manipulation pattern bears resemblance to that of Ethereum/Bitcoin this year: the larger-cap asset first posts consecutive new highs, followed by a rapid rally in the smaller-cap one to hit an all-time peak. While such fundamentals-defying gains have proven short-lived in the crypto market, one should not go against the prevailing trend.Silver recorded a weekly gain of over 10% last week, and the emergence of a new high means there are no technical reference points to rely on. As long as it trades above the 54.4 level, the market is clearly dominated by bulls. Since its 2022 low around 17.4, silver has seen a rally of more than 300% i

Despite the ongoing issue of a potential U.S. government shutdown, the short-term major risk factors have been mitigated following statements by the Chinese and American leaders at the APEC summit. This development suggests that after a significant market pullback, weaker asset classes like gold and silver have the potential to enter a phase of range-bound oscillation. Meanwhile, unless a black swan event occurs, the slow bull market in U.S. stocks driven by Nvidia is likely to continue through the end of this year and into early next year.Over the past month, the relative strength comparison among the market’s "three horses" — U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC) — has been quite clear. U.S. stocks have remained the last fortress of value, while BTC has served as a leading indicator. As n

Following a single-day sharp reversal and plunge in silver prices, the market may be entering a new downward phase. Both gold and silver, which had been rising continuously, exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern last Friday, with silver futures plunging nearly 6%. This may indicate that relatively strong assets like silver could soon face a catch-down correction along with the cryptocurrency market. Further deterioration in news flow could trigger a sustained downward trend.Silver has consistently been a key asset we previously recommended for attention. Unlike gold, silver does not possess a so-called safe-haven property. Historically, silver plays the role of a late-cycle catching-up asset. Once this last-to-ignite asset completes its upward movement, it often signals a broader trend cha

The president who most enjoys disrupting markets, Trump, has made a move again this past weekend. As the saying goes, his actions were fierce and fast, and he seems to read the market’s rise and fall like a true master. After stirring turmoil—especially in the cryptocurrency space—with his provocative tweets, he then reassured the market by saying "it’s nothing," which helped trigger a rebound. After several rounds of toying with market sentiment, the question now is: can this tactic still work this time?We have previously emphasized two main factors likely to influence the market: one is Trump’s own health condition and the internal uncertainties it brings to the US; the other is the evolving relationship between China and the US. Of course, the trigger for the China-US relationship chang

Over the National Day holiday week, markets shifted again: silver, the core sentiment gauge, led gold to fresh highs, and Bitcoin reclaimed the top spot in crypto with a new all-time high. The market is effectively immune to anything that looks negative, so fighting the prevailing mania is inadvisable until it clearly fades. That said, once leading indicators flash a definitive reversal, it could still mark a major inflection worth close attention.Among assets, silver remains the representative bellwether tracked over the past month. Silver futures set a new high this week, but with two trading days left, the chart has printed a high-level doji. While not a definitive top, it cannot be dismissed outright. Silver making highs has often coincided with rapid risk-off turns across risk assets,

After multiple delays since late last year, the long-awaited Fed rate-cut drama is finally nearing its conclusion. Based on the latest FedWatch data, the FOMC decision in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time will cut rates by 25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% range, with no other variables likely. In parallel, given Powell’s relatively steady past playbook, there is good reason to believe the Fed will not deploy any big or unusual actions that could disrupt the market structure. This implies that the market’s post-announcement move will most directly reflect investors’ true positioning.From the perspective of major market trends, last week’s anticipated divergence ended with Nvidia’s swift rebound. While the indexes also rose, the actual progress was limited; the convergence between the two shou

Over the past two weeks, the performance of major U.S. stock indices has diverged, with the Nasdaq showing relative weakness. Nvidia, a key bellwether for the U.S. market, has been in a steady pullback, breaking below its recent weekly swing lows. Following Trump’s return to the political stage, Nvidia’s performance holds significant leading indicator value. It is reasonable to suspect that the divergence between individual stocks and the broader market will not persist for long. Either the current strength in the indices faces a risk of a catch-up decline, or new news will emerge to help Nvidia recover lost ground quickly.On the news front, there is no obvious negative catalyst for Nvidia. Its earnings report met expectations and has been interpreted as a “profit-taking event,” but fundam

Last week, Ethereum’s price surged more than 20%, decisively breaking through the resistance zone set by the highs of March 2024. Now, the only major barrier ahead is its historical all-time high. The question is: how far can this round of capital-driven rally really go, and could any unexpected factors disrupt this market from the grip of the “invisible hand”?First, I have to admit that my forecasts for Ethereum last year turned out to be way off, largely due to Trump’s “about-face.” Based on his ambitious campaign pledges and the post-election developments at the time, my earlier view was that Ethereum would significantly underperform Bitcoin and fail to break new highs. But this logic changed dramatically after the tariff war began, followed by a steady string of U.S. setbacks. As I’ve