At the end of October, before the US presidential election, we specifically pointed out that gold had reached the medium and long-term target position, and it was time to take profits. At that time, the price of gold was around 2750. Although there were higher highs afterwards, looking back now, it was obviously a suitable appearance. In addition to price changes, more importantly, short-term and medium-term trends, and even long-term structures, gold shows obvious signs of loosening.First of all, from the perspective of the weekly situation, gold broke through the swing low last week, which was the first time since the autumn of 2023, when gold had not yet set a new record high. Generally speaking, if this low point is no longer gradually raised, it means that the obvious rally has stoppe

The much-anticipated U.S. election finally revealed its outcome last week: although Trump seems to be very close to Harris in traditional polls, it actually ended with Trump's big victory. With the second entry of this old acquaintance, the capital market also began to give some feedback. So what assets and changes are worth watching for us?About the crypto marketThere is no doubt that this is the strongest variety after the news that Trump is about to take office. Mainstream coins represented by Bitcoin and a number of altcoins have experienced huge gains in just one week. On the one hand, Trump showed the characteristics of a pro-crypto market during the election campaign; on the other hand, his main election assistant, Musk, is also very keen to "shout" on social media.Although we were

The U.S. election is about to give its final answer this week. The ups and downs of swing state data have caused some sensitive assets to take a roller coaster trend around last weekend. However, there are still some varieties fluctuating within a narrow range. Obviously, their breakthrough direction is likely to determine the market tendency in the next stage.Today we are going to talk about copper, which we haven't talked about for a long time. As a wide variety similar to crude oil, copper prices have gone out of a complete bull market and bear market in the first 11 months of this year, and are now just at the central axis level. What's more interesting is that in the past half month, the price has been running within a narrow range of 4.3-4.4 X.Copper has always been said by Dr. Coppe

The final chapter of the annual drama American election will come soon. As a hot spot that was regarded as more important than the Fed's interest rate cut at the beginning of the year, how will the election results affect the short-term, medium-and long-term development of the market?In terms of short-term fluctuations, we believe that the main difference between Harris and Trump will be the option of controlling the market. Although the risky assets represented by U.S. stocks have maintained a slow bull pattern recently, the continued weakness of oil prices still indicates that the market is currently expensive.If Trump takes office, it is very likely that he will start smashing the market after officially entering the White House. Or on the day of the general election, it is expected tha

The time node when silver compensated for the increase and the RMB exchange rate triggered the rise of precious metals in the internal market + various news and fundamentals gathered. These top features that have been talked about before are emerging one after another. As an old bull who has been bullish on gold for many years, now I am more cautious and waiting for a signal to exit. Always remember that pulling the market is the best way to sell goods. Don't go up or chase high is the only way to avoid deep traps and losing money.Silver showed a significant upward trend last week, breaking through the high in mid-May, and opening further higher this Monday. Obviously, the recent comparison of gold and silver trends has completely matched the compensatory effect of silver's late-coming fir

The last time we talked about cryptocurrency was 2-3 months ago, when Bitcoin had just completed a mid-level zigzag adjustment, and it looked like it was about to restart its rally. However, the advancement of the market is another result. The larger A-B-C correction has not broken through the downward channel by mid-October. Considering the approaching time of the U.S. election and the high levels of gold and the other two carriages of the U.S. stock index, the time to keep a long position seems to be increasingly limited at present.From the perspective of the weekly level, Bitcoin once fell below the 50,000 mark in the previous round of deep exploration, which made its height drop significantly even if the subsequent upward market was launched. At present, according to the form, it may b

Although domestic investors are focusing on chinese stock market, which opened today, as external observers and traders, we are always paying attention to the changes in the futures market. During the National Day holiday, the performance of crude oil was remarkable, but it was expected. Relatively speaking, the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which had been falling before, after the interest rate cut is also worthy of attention.We have talked about the logic of the rebound of the US dollar before the interest rate decision. A very important point is that in the latest round of interest rate hike-interest rate cut cycle, the foreign exchange market reflects the trend of expected rise/fall and reverse operation after landing. The fact that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates ahead of t

The long-awaited interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve finally landed in September. With the determination of the path of further easing, the main trading logic for the rest of the year has become clear: maintain the old thinking until before and after the election.Why can we maintain the existing trading ideas after the interest rate cut? On the one hand, judging from market feedback, risky assets have maintained a good trend, including the vane of USD/JPY, which is also a bottom out. This means that the trading pattern of the Biden administration has not changed. On the other hand, after the interest rate cut, Powell gave a "forward-looking guidance" at the press conference that he would cut interest rates twice during the year, each time by 25 basis points, which laid the foundation

Oil prices have fallen below the $70 level for the first time since the end of last year. Although they have not yet broken through the low support of nearly two years, their vigilant effect cannot be ignored. Coupled with the fact that the yen has not shown signs of returning to weakness, we may still have to make some preparations for tail risks.As we all know, crude oil, as the king of commodities, has long been highly correlated with the economy. Although under the control of the Biden administration, oil prices have become a range-bound variety in the past two years, but the market cannot run within a range forever. With the new president on the horizon, this kind of breakthrough will come sooner or later. However, if it breaks down before the general election, it may have different r

As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year and the US election at the end of the year approaches, the recent trend of major assets has become increasingly lackluster. This opportunity, which seems to be brewing to break through the market, is actually not highly operable. Coupled with the lack of trading cost performance of several varieties with significant trends, we tend to see more and move less at this stage, which may be a better choice.First of all, on the three carriages mentioned earlier, gold is already very close to the target price expected at the beginning of the year (2575 +). If you get on the bus now to do long positions, it is easy to waste time at high positions or be washed away due to shocks. Although the trend of U.S. stocks is still good,

A sideways oscillating state is often just for the next start. Now there are two assets that the whole world will pay attention to are in this kind of continuous shock and sideways trading. Will they get out of the real market in a short time?The first variety with a relatively short cycle is Bitcoin, which has been very red and extremely red in the last year. However, with the doubling of the market and record highs, the currency price has shown a flag-shaped consolidation pattern since March this year, which has been almost half a year. We have compared the performance of the U.S. stock index and gold before, and we expect that the market will reach a new high after the consolidation of an A-B-C model move. Unfortunately, things backfired, and the performance of the market was tangled, w

After gold broke through the key suppression of 2150 in the first quarter of this year, the ultimate goal of the current round of gold pointed to at least 2600 +, and there was a possibility of 2800 +, but a further breakthrough of 3000 or higher was no longer within the scope of consideration at that time.With the advancement of time and price, the price of gold at the beginning of this week is only about $50 away from the low-orbit target of 2,600, which seems to be at your fingertips. However, it is worth noting that the small institutions in the current rising market seem to be forming an ending wedge. This structure usually appears at the end of the market, and after the end of the structure, there will be a rapid downward trend. Taking gold as an example, it will fall to around 2300.

Last week, most markets began to stabilize and rebound, more or less rebounding from the previous sharp drop caused by the Bank of Japan's raid. Under the pressure of excessive turmoil in the global market, the Bank of Japan "slapped itself in the face", but from the market point of view, it still needs a clear signal for the market to return to rising trend.There have been many articles that have analyzed and discussed the logic of the Bank of Japan's interest rate increase. I believe everyone has a preliminary concept. Theoretically, the problem can be solved without rate hike, but everyone is inevitably frightened and doubts whether this is a delaying strategy or a test of market pressure resistance. In the eye of the storm is naturally the exchange rate performance of the US dollar and

Last week, U.S. stocks were attacked by multiple negative news and experienced a significant decline. Counting from the top, there has been a three-game weekly losing streak. Although there have been two times of adjustments in the market before, the turn of trading logic seems to be different this time.From a fundamental point of view, after the latest non-farm data, everyone is no longer concerned about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but beginning to worry about the U.S. recession with the reference of some forward-looking indicators. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's rate hike actions are also regarded as an important signal. Coupled with the plunge triggered by Intel's earnings report, it does not look very good. However, a careful comparison shows that among th

We haven't talked about the trend of crude oil and other commodities for a long time. The main reason is that the large-range + mid-rail model we previously determined has not changed at present, and the main tone of selling high and buying low can still be adopted. In view of the market change risks or trend changes that the current market is concerned about, in fact, we can also get a glimpse of the leopard from the commodity prices.There are many possibilities for a pattern to change, but the most direct and obvious one is naturally the substitution of "trader". In the past two years, the crude oil and copper price strategies formulated by the Biden administration have been wide fluctuations. Among them, the crude oil we have been mentioning is more prominent. The U.S. government has ma

Whether it is the change of the election situation, the decline of U.S. stocks in the past week or so has caused signs of a phased head at the weekly level. This means that although the medium and long-term trend has not changed, if it cannot quickly reach a new high, the summer market is likely to pass through adjustment.Going back to the current market, it is necessary to realize that a weekly-level reversal combination has emerged. The S&P phagocytosis combination has appeared several times before, and most of them have fallen for 2-3 weeks or even more. The Nasdaq saw an obvious negative line decline after a high cross star. Looking at the combination of the two indexes, it means that the pressure on the technical form is relatively obvious.Generally speaking, if the lost ground ca

Three Horses Driving-The trends of US stocks, gold and Bitcoin have shown obvious differentiation in the past period of time. The strong and strong U.S. stock index has seen a new impetus, and gold is also a bottom out, but Bitcoin has seen a further break. As the price slipped below 56,000, the worry of a bear market began to be gradually raised by the market again. So should we believe in Double Bottoms or Big Double Top?Starting from the fundamentals, the overall situation in the near future is actually relatively stable. Although the benefits of ETF and halving have been implemented, both of them are changes throughout the market, so they can be regarded as long-term support factors.In terms of monetary policy, the interest rate market suggests that the first interest rate cut this yea

From the perspective of the RMB/USD exchange rate, the low point of the new trading range is around 7.1, while the high point of 7.36 is an important pressure level. The slow rise in the second quarter did provide some initial signals, but for pure technical trends, it is obvious that a new high exchange rate (new low RMB exchange rate) is needed to truly announce the arrival of the trend.Why can't we trade early now? The main reason may come from the progress of the news. From a macro logic point of view, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates within this year. Even if the People's Bank of China has loose expectations, it will not be able to widen the interest rate spread. Secondly, the renminbi itself is not a completely freely convertible product, and it will have its ow