Patterson-UTI: The Worm Has Turned In Gas

Fluidsdoc
05-22

Summary

  • Patterson-UTI Energy has been struggling due to low commodity prices, but improvements in the natural gas market could reverse the trend.
  • The company offers a range of services in the drilling and fracking sectors, and its cash conversion rates are among the top in the industry.
  • The potential decline in shale production and increasing demand for gas in electricity generation and industrial usage could benefit PTEN.
  • We rate PTEN as a buy at current levels.

A pretty sight!

grandriver

Introduction

Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ:PTEN) has been treading water for most of this year as rig counts have suffered and frac spreads have gone to the house. The problem, of course, has been the slow withering of commodityworm has turned for gasgas pricesEQTCRK

Price return for Gas Drillers (Seeking Alpha)

The thesis for PTEN

  • reaching TD with drilling BHA
  • running and cementing casing
  • perforating and fracking stages
  • drill out of plugs between stages

Average rig revenue per day was $35,680, with average rig operating cost per day of $19,510. The average adjusted rig gross profit per day was $16,170, a decrease of less than $200 from the prior quarter. Since the start of 2022, we have returned more than 80% of our free cash flow to shareholders, while at the same time improving our free cash flow conversion. We continue to expect to convert at least 40% of our adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow in 2024.

(Source: Company filings)

Shale Production Aging graph (Novi Labs-Used with permission)

EIA energy demand graphic (EIA)

Risks

Q-1, 2024 and Outlook

Outlook for 2024

The coming catalyst for PTEN

Gas storage 2023, 2024 (EIA gas storage report-chart by author)

Your takeaway

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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