Market Cycle Guidebook - The global growth pulse is turning up

Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:

-The global growth pulse is turning up

--soft data is trending distinctly “less bad”

--likewise the slowdown in hard data growth rates is turning around

--and even the leading indicators are turning up from previous warning signs

---hence the macro edge risk of reacceleration and inflation resurgence is credible

--investors need to think more about the idea of reacceleration

---(yet we continue to monitor for downside/recession risk signs)

-Central banks move into pause mode, and even pivot in places

--the Fed remains on pause, with a high hurdle for cuts or hikes

---others pivot: Sweden, Europe, Canada all cutting rates

---EM has collectively pivoted to rate cuts

----(notably China — making steps towards larger stimulus)

--the bulk of tightening is likely now behind us

---albeit the damage may already have been done (long + variable lags)

----and the global economy still faces a hurdle of higher rates

---thus the macro edge risk of deflation and recession is also there

--re-pivoting is also a risk, as some banks have moved back to hikes

-Constructive on risk assets, but highly selective and wary of risks

--See Value in government bonds, commodities, defensive stocks, EM

-Tactically bullish on commodities (previous bearish)

--medium-term technical signals say risks skewed to the upside

--underinvestment means a new higher floor price across commodities

-the “macro edge risks” have very important and distinct market implications

--substantial opportunities (and risks) lie ahead…

Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook:

-Instant overview of: global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations

-Market performance snapshot & commentary/highlights

-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); "cheat sheet"

-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views to recommended positioning

-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions

-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe

-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)

https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cycle-guidebook-may-2024-0f7