Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:1. Years ending in 6 (e.g. 2026) tend to see weaker price action.2. Insiders are buying-up (relatively cheap) Consumer Staples stocks.3. REITs see significant relative value (vs expensive stocks).4. IPO market activity is picking up, but not excessive.5. ETF market activity on the other hand looks very bubbly.Overall, probably the key message or takeaway from this week is that while there are some pockets of excess and risk-flags, there are still plenty of opportunities out there for those willing to look… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with

Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given policy uncertainty and confidence shocks from the chaotic start to the year, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of the cy

Golden Harbinger for CommoditiesWhile gold has more than doubled over the past couple of years, the rest of commodities have been stuck in a trading range.To the extent that some degree of the gold bull market reflects monetary easing and currency debasement, the logic of catch-up is one of monetary commodities (like gold) leading the charge and real-world activity-linked commodities playing catch-up later (just like what happened in 2020-22). $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Valuation Indicators — Commodities vs GoldOne key clue for possible gold-commodity rotation or even just commodity catch-up is where the valuation indicators are sitting for gold vs commodities.Gold looks expensive, while commodities look cheap.Whether it ends up being rotation

Now, some of you might be thinking: hmm yeah, ok, but we just saw bonds crap the bed during the 2022 mini-bear-market; and both stocks AND bonds ended up falling during that episode. Then add to that the fact that bonds are still basically in a bear market, and it would not be at all surprising to see some push back on the above sentiments I espoused.And that’s actually a big part of the story here.Investors have been scared and scarred away from treasuries, particularly as stocks have gone from strength to strength. That’s a big reason for why sentiment is so bearish on bonds, and why allocations have been drifted by market movements and active rotation down to the lows highlighted in the chart above.It’s all part of the process of the market cycle, but I’d also hasten to point out that b

Investor allocations to bonds have reached the lowest point since 2007.We’ve seen this happen before.Bond allocations reached major lows at both of the last two major stock market peaks (2000, 2007), and basically served as a bear market harbinger.Aside from giving clues on the stage of the market cycle, this chart also served as a contrarian bullish indicator for bonds — with treasuries turning in strong double-digit returns after those two big troughs (and doing so while stocks dropped).So I think this chart says as much about the stage of the market cycle, as it does about the importance of asset allocation (bonds performing their role as diversifiers and risk dampeners), but also about the big bullish setup in bonds in general.As discussed the other day, bonds have all the makings for

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:This week we found out where the key support levels are.Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency.For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on S

When I first made this chart I had to check and re-check it a few times.Because it just looks too weird.And that’s the thing: as an analyst, sooner or later you learn (often by making an embarrassing mistake) that if something looks weird — it *is* weird and you probably need to go and find out what error you or someone else made to make it look that weird…The problem is there’s no error here.Well, no data error at least.That weird looking surge in the rolling 12-month net-change in US listed ETFs is genuine. But I am certain that some errors of a different type are going to be seen here when the dust eventually settles from this frantic ETF launch frenzy.And p.s. here’s a little something this chart doesn’t show: a big portion of ETF launches have been focused on providing “investors“ wit

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:This week we found out where the key support levels are.Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on

Bank StocksLastly, it’s also worth pointing out the strength we’ve seen in global bank stocks. Breadth across countries is running at a very strong pace, and after retesting its previous big breakout in April, the global bank stock index has now broken out to new all-time highs.It’s been a long time coming for banks to finally recover to pre-GFC levels, and as I’ve noted with a few other big breakouts we’ve been seeing this year — it follows a long period of ranging and consolidation (and repair/restructure) so it’s a highly significant development.Very interesting itself as far as the stocks go, but also interesting as another arguably quite positive macro sign and signal here.For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcom

Funding ConditionsIt’s also interesting to track the trends in reported loan demand (chart above) alongside lending standards (whether banks are increasing vs decreasing hurdles and scrutiny for approvals) AND monetary policy rates.Loan demand typically will fall when economic conditions are poor and uncertainty is high, but also when interest rates are rapidly rising and at levels where the hurdle to return on investment is too high.But the key takeaway on this second chart is: loan demand is recovering, lending standards are not tightening at any alarming rate, and interest rates are steadily declining — add to that tight credit spreads, and overall its a picture of much improved and generally supportive funding conditions for corporations (good for the growth and investment outlook).For

It seems like the prevailing macro mood right now is one of pessimism.But here’s an interesting datapoint..Globally banks are reporting a resurgence in loan demand.This follows an initial long recovery from the 2022/23 shadow recession and then again rebounding from the tariff-volatility shock earlier this year.It also lines-up neatly with what I’ve been yabbering on about with the “Global Growth Reacceleration“ theme [as explained in the 2026 Outlook Webinar].While it is possible to see loan demand increase when firms are facing cash and liquidity pressures (e.g. in early 2020), the much more common driver is increased activity, capacity issues (strong demand), and optimism on the future.Typically businesses will take out loans to fund long-term expansion-oriented programs e.g. M&A, r

ETF Allocations — Gold Up, Crypto DownJust as allocations to gold ETFs are starting to move higher, allocations to crypto (Bitcoin & Ethereum) have peaked and rolled over.The below chart looks at “implied allocations“ of investors by taking basically the market share of aggregated assets in US listed ETFs. While there are obviously other ways to gain exposure to gold (and Bitcoin), this does give an insight into investor positioning in these assets via the ETF market. $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ Gold vs Bitcoin RatioWith Bitcoin heading into a bear market (down -25% from top-to-bottom), the gold vs bitcoin ratio is turning up off relative lows.Just as I noted how gold was breaking out vs stocks last week, this could well be the start of a m

Here’s one key asset class that’s out-of-fashion, overlooked, and undervalued.(and mostly misunderstood)By my metrics, Commodities are cheap [and I mean commodities at the asset class level, or specifically the *diversified* GSCI (Light Energy) Commodities Index].But we all know that cheap can stay cheap, get cheaper, and the usual quip that it might just be cheap for a reason…So here’s a few reasons why commodities might be one of the most important asset classes to watch into 2026, and why valuations may be more relevant now:Valuations: as noted, commodities are cheap by my indicators, and most importantly; the indicator has gone to cheap levels and ticked up off the lows.Technicals: the index I mentioned has started to make an initial move on breaking out of its big trading range, off a

Great Gold Bull ConsolidationsAs the post-peak consolidation in gold wears on, it’s worth reflecting on the path of gold bull markets in general, but especially the previous major gold bull market.The 2000’s big bull featured several long periods of consolidation, and multiple smaller consolidations — in fact a key feature of gold bull markets seems to be that much of the upward movement happened basically across a series of weeks (and in some cases a few key days).Or in other words, it doesn’t go up in a straight line even when its going up big. $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.

Gold — Long-Term TrendZooming out to the big picture, the trend is still your friend for gold $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ . Gold Valuation IndicatorWhile the trend is still strong and up, investor allocations still have room to rise, and monetary tailwinds are still significantly supportive, the composite gold valuation indicator is in extreme expensive territory. (source)History tells us expensive markets can get more expensive, but it also warns that periods of correction and consolidation are on the horizon.See also: Gold Valuation Indicators in Focus (indicator methodology)Gold vs Silver vs Base MetalsI continue to think this is one of the most important charts in commodities and certainly at least for metals. The procession of price leader