Tonight’s jobs report will determine the market’s initial reaction, while next Friday’s CPI may determine the Federal Reserve’s final decision. With U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day, stocks will carry this rate uncertainty into a three-day weekend. On September 3, all three major U.S. indexes rallied: the Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%. The catalyst was not another corporate earnings release, but a comment from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: if upcoming data confirms that inflation is cooling, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. Markets quickly reduced their rate-hike bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September hike fell from 63.2% to 50.4% in one day

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ Broadcom delivered record results and raised its fiscal 2027 AI revenue target to $115 billion. However, its fourth-quarter revenue guidance fell about 0.7% short of market expectations—and that small gap still sent the stock down more than 6% at one point after hours. After the market closed on September 2, Broadcom $AVGO reported its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results: Revenue reached $29.591 billion, up 86% year over year and above the $29.36 billion consensus estimate; Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.32, ahead of the $3.24 estima

Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy-sector story. They are pushing Treasury yields higher through inflation expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and compressing valuations across the rest of the market—the September 1 selloff in U.S. equities was the result of this entire chain being repriced at once. On Tuesday, September 1, all four major U.S. indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Dow dropped 419.02 points to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.03% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.23% to 2,920. The real driver on the day came from the Middle East. U.S. forces launched a new round of strikes against Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, after two oil tankers had been attacked in the waterway. T

California’s Wildfire Bill Turns PCG and EIX Back Into High-Risk Assets One-line takeaway: Utility stocks may offer protection against the economic cycle, but they are not necessarily protected from wildfire liabilities, regulatory changes or the legal risks of a single state. The biggest individual stock moves in the U.S. market on Monday did not come from the technology sector, but from traditionally “defensive” stocks. PG&E $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ fell 20.1%; Edison International $Edison(EIX)$ dropped 23.1%; Sempra $Sempra(SRE)$ declined 3.1%. The trigger was a California wildfire bill. The final version did not in

Nvidia has largely answered the question of whether AI demand remains strong. Investors are now examining how its customers finance GPU purchases—and how much risk Nvidia is assuming to keep the infrastructure boom moving. Nvidia jumped 8.7% in the first session after earnings, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 2.3%. One day later, NVDA fell 4.6%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks pushed Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations higher, but monetary policy was not the whole story. Friday’s decline was likely driven by three overlapping factors: Higher rates pressured technology valuations. Investors took profits after Thursday’s 8.7% surge. Concerns about circular financing, customer spending and falling margins returned to the spotlight. The earnings were genuinely st

A weaker dollar, renewed ETF inflows and improving U.S. regulatory expectations have pushed Bitcoin back toward $80,000. The next test is whether real spot demand can sustain the rally after the initial burst of enthusiasm. Bitcoin briefly traded above $80,000, reaching an intraday high of $81,237—its highest level since mid-May. BTC has gained roughly 28% in August, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. It has since pulled back toward $78,000, showing that the $80,000–$81,200 zone remains a meaningful resistance area. What is driving the rally? 1. The “debasement trade” is back The U.S. Treasury’s expanded purchases of longer-dated government bonds have helped ease bond yields, but they have also added pressure to the dollar. When investors become

The Nasdaq fell while the Dow advanced. Nvidia and memory stocks sold off, while Visa, Mastercard, JPMorgan, Coca-Cola and Expedia moved higher. Money is not necessarily leaving U.S. equities—it is becoming more selective. The most important signal from the latest session was not the index decline itself. It was the widening divergence between market sectors. Nasdaq: -0.76% S&P 500: -0.28% Dow Jones: +0.26% QQQ: approximately -1.0% Technology ETF XLK: approximately -1.8% Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF RSP: +0.1% The contrast was even clearer at the stock level. AI and semiconductor names weakened: Nvidia: -2.9% Micron: -5.9% Sandisk: -6.5% Broadcom: -2.6% Semiconductor ETF SMH: -2.5% Meanwhile, financials and selected consumer names attracted buyers: Financial ETF XLF: +1.3% JPMorgan: +1

Investors closely track Big Tech’s quarterly capital expenditures, but reported CapEx only captures part of the AI buildout. Nine major technology companies reportedly have about $3 trillion in future lease, chip-purchase and infrastructure commitments that are not yet fully reflected on their balance sheets. 1. Where Did the $3 Trillion Come From? According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of financial-statement footnotes, nine major technology companies reported roughly $600 billion in combined CapEx over their latest 12-month periods. However, their broader future commitments approach $3 trillion, including approximately: $1.2 trillion in data-center leases that have not yet commenced; $1.9 trillion in long-term purchase agreements covering chips, memory, power and other infrastructure

U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, raising fresh concerns about consumer spending. Earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX will show whether Americans are simply becoming more selective—or starting to cut spending more broadly. Retail Earnings Calendar Aug. 18: Home Depot Aug. 19: Target, Lowe’s and TJX Aug. 20: Walmart Together, these companies cover several layers of the U.S. consumer economy: StockWhat It Tests WMT Essentials, value-seeking and trade-down demand TGT Discretionary spending on apparel, beauty and home goods HD Housing activity and large renovation projects LOW DIY demand and professional contractors TJX Consumer demand for discounted merchandise 1. Retail Sales Sent an Early Warning U.S. retail sales declined 0.6% month over month in July, versus expec

The viral Chinese animated film Niu Lai and Anthropic’s potential mega-IPO may appear completely unrelated, but both reveal the same market behavior: once people believe future attention, revenue and scale will keep expanding, prices can move far ahead of current quality or profits. Hype can create a valuation, but only cash flow can defend it. The Weekend’s Biggest Surprise Was a Movie Called Niu Lai Anyone who spent time on Chinese social media over the weekend probably saw clips or memes about Niu Lai (《牛来》). The animated film opened on August 5 with almost no promotion and only two core creators. After nine days in theaters, it had earned just RMB 7,169, while nationwide daily screenings had fallen to only 21. Then its rough 3D modeling, stiff animation and unusual dialogue started cir

A mild PPI report pushed the S&P 500 to another record close, but the real story overnight was the widening gap within tech. SNDK surged 13.7% after unveiling its long-term growth targets through 2030, lifting WDC and MU with it. Meanwhile, COHR, Cisco and AMAT all delivered solid results—but their stocks were not rewarded. Investors still want AI exposure, but they are no longer paying higher prices for growth that is already widely expected. S&P 500 Hits Another Record as PPI Eases Rate-Hike Fears All three major U.S. indices closed higher overnight: The immediate catalyst was the July U.S. Producer Price Index. Headline PPI was unchanged from the previous month, easing concerns about another inflation rebound. Goods prices declined 0.7%, including a 3.1% drop in energy prices, o

The U.S. critical-minerals trade is moving beyond tariffs and geopolitical headlines. Washington is now using equity investments, long-term loans, price floors and purchase guarantees to build an independent supply chain. That improves the sector’s long-term investment case—but the latest funding does not benefit every rare-earth stock equally. Where Is the Money Actually Going? On August 7, President Donald Trump met with more than 200 mining executives, investors, educators and government officials as part of his effort to make the United States a “minerals superpower.” Reuters estimated that the newly announced critical-minerals, battery and related investments totaled approximately $3 billion. The White House separately listed more than $2 billion in mining-related projects and over $1

AI hardware stocks have suffered a sharp valuation reset, but the latest earnings show that underlying infrastructure demand remains strong. CoreWeave’s revenue backlog reached $104.2 billion, while Super Micro guided for up to $72 billion in annual revenue. The key bottlenecks are increasingly power, cooling, networking and financing—not a lack of AI orders AI Infrastructure Rebounds After Hours U.S. stocks ended the latest session lower as investors remained cautious ahead of the July CPI report: S&P 500: −0.32% Nasdaq Composite: −0.60% Dow Jones: −0.34% However, several AI infrastructure names rebounded after the close: $CoreWeave(CRWV)$: up more than 14% after hours $Super Micro Computer(SMCI)$: u

AI optical-networking stocks suffered a broad valuation reset. COHR dropped 14.2%, LITE lost 8.6%, and AXTI plunged 16.7%. So far, there is little evidence that AI-driven optical demand has suddenly weakened. The selloff looks more like aggressive de-risking ahead of Coherent’s earnings—but expectations are now so high that strong growth alone may no longer be enough. AI Optics Became the Market’s Biggest Pain Point The latest session was brutal for optical-networking stocks: $Coherent(COHR)$: −14.2% $Lumentum(LITE)$: −8.6% $AXT Inc.(AXTI)$: −16.7% $Fabrinet(FN)$: −6.3% $Applied Optoe