Institutions Maintain Bullish Tilt into Month-End

Investors awaited fresh economic data and comments from Fed officials as Treasury yields rebounded after last week's sharp decline, lifting major US equity indices. The Dow Jones snapped a 4-day losing streak while the S&P 500 notched a fresh record high.

Options flows showed expectations for a 1% upside in SPY by June 28 expiry. QQQ was seen holding above 475 through June 21. IWM priced in a 3.4%-4.9% potential rally by June 28 expiry.

Details:

$S&P 500 ETF (SPY)$
On Monday, SPY rose 0.8% to close at $547.1. In recent active trading, 19% of options activity was spread trades. Today's most popular SPY options trade was a put spread, with 489,884 contracts traded. Key flows included:

1. Put Spread Strategy, total 90k contracts
   Buying $SPY 20240816 520.0 CALL$ , Selling $SPY 20240816 515.0 CALL$ 
   Implied expectations for a 4.9%-5.8% potential drawdown in SPY by Aug 16 expiry

2. Call Spread Strategy, total 68k contracts
   Closing sale of $SPY 20240628 540.0 CALL$ , Opening purchase of $SPY 20240628 550.0 CALL$ 
   Implied expectations for 1% further upside in SPY by June 28 expiry

$Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)$
On Monday, QQQ rose 1.22% to close at $485.06. In recent active trading, 25% of options activity was spread trades. Today's most popular QQQ options trade was a put spread, with 314,434 contracts traded. Key flows included:

1. Put Spread Strategy, total 32k contracts
   Selling $QQQ 20240621 475.0 PUT$ , Buying $QQQ 20240621 468.0 PUT$ 
   Implied expectations for QQQ to hold above 475 through June 21 expiry

2. Put Spread Strategy, total 25k contracts
   Buying $QQQ 20240726 465.0 PUT$ , Selling $QQQ 20240726 455.0 PUT$ 
   Implied expectations for a 4.1%-6.1% potential drawdown in QQQ by July 26 expiry

3. Call Spread Strategy, total 25k contracts
   Selling $QQQ 20240719 490.0 CALL$ , Buying $QQQ 20240719 500.0 CALL$ 
   Implied expectations for QQQ potentially capped below 490 by July 19 expiry

$Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)$
On Monday, IWM rose 0.84% to close at $200.4. In recent active trading, 50% of options activity was spread trades. Today's most popular IWM options trade was a put spread, with 311,000 contracts traded. Key flows included:

1. Put Spread Strategy, total 224k contracts
   Buying $IWM 20240816 190.0 PUT$ , Selling $IWM 20240816 188.0 PUT$ 
   Implied expectations for a 5.1% potential drawdown in IWM by Aug 16 expiry

2. Call Spread Strategy, total 25k contracts
   Buying $IWM 20240628 207.0 CALL$ , Selling $IWM 20240628 210.0 CALL$ 
   Implied expectations for a 3.4%-4.9% potential rally in IWM by June 28 expiry