Last Week's Recap
1. The US Market - The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ climbed 18% in 24H1
U.S. stocks wrapped up a strong first half of 2024, with the S&P 500 scoring a double-digit gain while the Nasdaq logging more than 18%. The two averages hit new all-time intraday highs earlier Friday before pulling back.
Global capital markets mostly rallied in the first half of 2024. Bitcoin soared 43% while gold future jumped nearly 13%.
Inflation in May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. The core PCE index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1% last month and 2.6% from the prior year. Both estimates were in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.
U.S. banking giants announced plans to raise their third-quarter dividends on Friday after proving that they have enough capital to withstand severe economic and market turmoil in the Federal Reserve's annual health check.
2. The US Sectors & Stocks - NVDA surged nearly 150% in 24H1
Turning to the performance of the S&P 500 sectors in the first six months of 2024, 10 notched gains except Real Estate. Technology led the way with the aforementioned ~28% jump, while Communication Services also rocketed about 26%.
In contrast, the Real Estate sector was the only one to see a decline, with a loss of 4.14%. Rising interest rates and market saturation in certain areas contributed to the sector's underperformance, as higher borrowing costs dampened real estate investments.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is the best performers in the S&P 500 as the first half nears an end and excitement around artificial intelligence shows no signs of easing. Shares have surged 149%. $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ is another big winner in the index, up 55.32%. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ have added 43.83% and 42.45%, respectively. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ drops 20.36% in H1, losing over $160B in market valuation so far in 2024.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ resulted in a second profitable quarter after a string of losses. Revenue spiked 82% to $6.81 billion, with growth accelerating again. Micron highlighted strong sales of high-bandwidth memory for AI applications and solid-state drives for data centers. The memory-chip giant's fiscal Q4 EPS guidance was above consensus at the midpoint, but its revenue target was only in line. Micron stock fell nearly 6% last week.
$Nike(NKE)$ earnings jumped 50% in fiscal Q4, well above views. But revenue dipped 2% to $12.6 billion, falling short of expectations, amid North American weakness. The Dow Jones athletic shoe and apparel giant expected 2025 revenue to decline in the high-single digits for the first half of fiscal 2025. NKE shares tumbled.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ announced an alliance with Volkswagen, which will invest $5 billion in the startup over the next two years, easing cash concerns. That includes $3 billion in Rivian stock and $2 billion for a joint venture focusing on software along with electrical architecture design and development. Meanwhile on Thursday, Rivian said it still expects to produce 57,000 vehicles this year. It sees Q2 deliveries of 13,000-13,300, above analyst views for 12,000. It'll release official Q2 delivery figures on July 2. RIVN soared by 30%.
$FedEx(FDX)$ reported Q4 EPS rose 9.5% with revenue up 1% to $22.1 billion, both beating. The shipping and delivery giant gave solid guidance. FDX stock spiked to a 52-week high.
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ won China approval to sell its weight-loss drug Wegovy in that country. Novo Nordisk also announced plans to invest $4.1 billion to build a second fill-and-finishing manufacturing facility in Clayton, N.C. to keep up with demand. NVO surged and reached all-time high last Tuesday.
$Carnival(CCL)$ soars on surprise earnings. The cruise giant earned 11 cents a share adjusted vs. a 31-cent loss a year earlier. Revenue climbed 18% to $5.78 billion, slightly beating, as growth continues to slow. Carnival (CCL) continues to see strong booking momentum, with record volumes for 2025 sailings.
3. Hong Kong Market -
The Hang Seng Index $HSI(HSI)$ lost 1.72% last week. For June, the benchmark has lost 2%, set for its first such loss in five months, as sentiment towards stocks soured as investors flocked to the safety of government bonds. Overseas investors have pulled out US$5 billion of Chinese onshore stocks in June, the largest monthly outflow since October, according to HSBC.
Funds raised from new share listings in Hong Kong dropped to a two-decade low in the first half of the year, pushing the city down several rungs to 13th place in a global ranking of initial public offering (IPO) markets. A total of 26 companies raised US$1.5 billion via IPOs on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange in the first six months of 2024, according to the LSEG data released on Friday. The proceeds are 35% lower than 2023’s first-half total. However, the funds raised in the second quarter were 40 per cent higher than in the first three months, suggesting things may be improving.
4. Singapore Market - $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ registered 3.37% in 24H1
The first half of 2024 brought both ups and downs for Singapore's stock market, as reflected in the closing figures of the benchmark Straits Times Index(STI.SI) and the performance of individual stocks. While the STI closed at 3,332.80 points, up 3.37% from the previous quarter.
The 10 strongest performers of the FTSE ST All-Share Index have generated an average total return of 37% in the second quarter ending 20 June, according to the Singapore Exchange.
During the first half of 2024, three Singaporean stocks stood out for their impressive performance. $AEM USD(XWA.SI)$ emerged as the best performer, recording a significant growth of 9427.38%. $HSBC ADR 10(PU6D.SI)$ followed closely with a gain of 115.35%, while $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ experienced a notable increase of 78.73%.
5. Australian Market - $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ was up 2.33% in 24H1
With markets now indicating a much greater chance of a rise in the cash rate to 4.6% by November, with some tipping a rise by August, that changed the whole dynamic on which markets had been pricing in lower rates and resulted in the ASX 200 falling 0.39% last week to end the financial year on a slightly downbeat note.
The week’s stunning news that inflation had reared back up to 4% for the year to May brought with it the end of a narrative of slowly falling inflation and interest rates and brought into sharp focus whether there was another interest rate rise in prospect for Australia.
The benchmark ASX 200 represented a 2.33% gain in 24H1. Although it lagged behind S&P 500, some stocks that Tiger Brokers users are most concerned with hit new highs or showed significant gains.
The Week Ahead
1. Macro Factors - A look at the labor market
A crucial week of labor market data will greet investors during a holiday-shortened trading week that begins the month of July, the third quarter, and second half of 2024. Markets in the US will close early on July 3 (1 p.m. ET) and will remain closed on July 4 for Independence Day.
On Tuesday, the BLS will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It is expected to show 7.9 million job openings on the last business day of May, which would be down by roughly 150,000 from April.
On Wednesday, investors will also get the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.
Then, the BLS will publish the June jobs report on Friday. The consensus call is for 195,000 new nonfarm payrolls, after the U.S. economy added 272,000 gain in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 4%.
Despite some short-lived rallies throughout the year, just two sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 this year: Communications Services and Information Technology. Both are up more than 18% compared to the S&P 500's roughly 15% gain. This has kept the debate going over whether the second half of the year will bring a broadening of the stock market rally, a hot-button issue on Wall Street.
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